Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I think the rise in gold last week was forcasting a rate cut by the Fed. Pricing the rate cut in so to speak. If the Fed does not cut on the 18th, I think that we might see the dreaded $666 again, jmo.
Cheers
Dusty

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve might not have to resort to a cut in its target federal funds rate to address the financial market turmoil and credit crunch, said Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank president Charles Plosser on Saturday.

“I believe disruptions in financial markets can be addressed using the tools available to the Fed without necessarily having to make a shift in the overall direction of monetary policy,” Plosser said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Pennsylvania Association of Community Bankers meeting in Hawaii. A copy of his remarks was released here.

Plosser said the Fed can continue to provide liquidity in the face of financial shock. On Aug. 17, the Fed cut its discount rate and has taken a series of technical moves to provide the market with cash. The Fed has also undertaken a series of injections of funds in to the market.
Many Fed watchers believe the Fed district bank presidents are more reluctant to cut the federal funds rate than the members of the Fed board of governors.

In the past few days, some bank presidents have stressed that the Fed must avoid the “moral hazard” problem by bailing out investors who took excessive risk.
Plosser put it this way: “It is not appropriate for the Fed to ensure against financial volatility per se, or against individuals or firms taking losses or failing.”

Plosser suggested that he is not yet certain whether the tight credit and financial turmoil is a “temporary disturbance” that would not throw the economy off track or a “shock” that would require a rate cut.

“I believe it is important to understand and appreciate this underlying stability of the economy in the face of temporary disturbances as we seek to assess monetary policy in the face of developments in housing,” Plosser said.

“The FOMC continues to monitor incoming data and other economic information for signs that these disruptions are having a broader impact on the economy,” he said.
Plosser said that he expected the drag on economic growth from housing to diminish gradually but last until sometime next year.

He said he believed the “most likely outcome” is that economic growth will return to trend later in 2008.” Economists peg trend growth at a little less that 3% GDP growth.
Plosser said that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding his forecast and said the tighter credit conditions and disruptions in financial markets have only increased that uncertainty.
Many economists said that they are certain the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18 after the surprisingly weak August unemployment report was released Friday.

Plosser did not mention the August job report in his remarks, but said Fed officials do not base their decisions “on any one number.”

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington

www.marketwatch.com/news/story/st…

regarding Jim Sinclair, and the irresposnibility that ills our culture.
The man has done nothing but help us to help ourselves.

You might consider yourself a “novice”…….but you have really got the “smilies” down!!!!!! (hehe)
Dusty

I stopped by the local coin shop today to shoot the breeze for awhile. I spotted a neat looking medallion in his case. It is a 1/4oz 9999 Au medal commerating zero lost hours safty record in 2004 for the CC&V mine of Cripple Creek/Victor CO. The design and minting was done by NW Territorial Mint. With the rise in gold last week I suspect that there will be a slight retracement in the next few days so it probibaly wasn’t real smart to buy gold today. However he offered to me at “Melt” ($175) so I bought it. Besides, I haven’t bought any gold for awhile and I needed a ‘fix’. It’s really a beautiful little coin and really neat, something kind of different.
Cheers to all
Dusty

PS: The gold actually came from the CC&V mine…….Cool!!

   I believe you have clarified this extremely well …. it all makes sense now …. why didn’t he just say that in the first place …..   It’s been a long day.  

I think you are correct as to his meaning!  Have a good weekend.

My interpretation was that this is the time to sell the bad stocks into strength (those with hedging or derivitives risk) and switch into stocks without that risk, or into bullion, or into whatever other investment makes sense for you in your own circumstances. For some, the best use might be to pay off a home equity loan, or car payment, or credit card debt etc. In any case, his point is that once gold crosses $700, even the laggard stocks will take off, so this is a prime opportunity to unload any stocks that have been bad choices.

He has offered all the tools one needs with free CDs  and advise on his website over the past few years and if not taken advatage of then it is not his fault. Everything one needs to follow his methodology has been freely given to us all. Some here have actually been critical of Jim the past week, which amazes me. His advise is free, no force makes him post his thoughts, and, after all, are we not responsible for our own investment decisions? That is the most serious problem the country faces in my own view: no personal responsibility-evertyhing is somehow the fault of someone else. I do not direct this at any individual, for it is a general cancer within modern society as a whole. I do not always follow his advice, but his wisdom and insight are invaluable.

He just meant not to buy the same stock back. Go shopping for bullion is the underlying message. Of more import to me was the news of Lehman closing the sub prime shops. They sold and brokered much more than just sub prime in those two companies. Someone said and I agree,” when one of the big 4 starts shutting doors looooook out brother. Maya,St. Joseph has a near impossible job in front of him. As we have known,this stuff is getting very serious very fast. Better do 200 basis points and begin to print Amero’s

Thanks for that heads up on JS tonight.  I would like to ask the same question as one of his subscribers (Lew) ….. what do you really think JS means when he says to “sell 1/3 into strength and do with it whatever you wish but, do not buy back”.  A little confusing to a novice such as myself …. JS didn’t give a level at which to sell …. I would probably sell too soon and lose out on additional profits … also, why do you think he says “don’t buy back”.  Further clarification would greatly be appreciated.  TIA. 

JS is a MUST READ tonight. 

FYI, FROM GBG

Tsholo Serunye [tsholos@gbgold.co.za]

   Thank you for that.
GBG has no hedges or derivatives in place, nor have we hedged any of its expenses to movements in the gold price. We have no loans or contractual relationships with a gold exposure. Our Cash balances are held mainly in Canada with commercial banks, and funds are invested in term deposits and money market accounts.
I hope that is helpful

Kind Regards,
     Tsholofelo Serunye
     Investor Relations Officer
     Email: tsholos@gbgold.co.za
     Tel: 011 884 1610
      Mobile: 083 925 5629
 
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A story about your real-estate agent, St. Joseph,   here.