Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

for your late night reading

forums.military.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/672198221/m/8170051541001

Well I change my hairdo at least a few times a year! Although hubby would tell you it is always the same… He never notices anything different!

Who meet with my mother at the local restaurant on Wednesday evenings………….yes, many.

My word, is there really any woman out there who hasn’t changed her hairdo in 40 years?

The Air Force Thunderbirds performed in Honolulu today, shredding palm trees in Waikiki.  They will be performing again on Saturday the 15th, so I guess these ‘top guns’ will not be ’standing down’ this weekend like the rest of the Air Force.  Comforting to know that if Honolulu is attacked by air, these boys stand ready to fly circles around the enemy.   I don’t think they have armaments on these show jets.

“Exactly the same”………..A woman does her hair the same way for 40 years.  Has she ever done it “exactly the same” on any two days in those 40 years?  Of course not.  Has she done it close enough that most would recognize her by her hairdo on any two days in that 40 year period?  Yes, of course. 

IMO, Rosen is simply looking at “the wrong similarities” when he looks at the 70’s much like Rodin did back in the 2003 to 2004 period.  IMO we are in a 5th wave parabolic sweep upward in $Gold that mimics the 5the wave in the 70’s, only…….all generated as JS says by the parabolic printing of the USD.

GRANDPA….If memory serves, Rosen was very bullish at HUI 165, but jumped off around HUI 180 to 200.  He then jumped back on the bandwagon around 280, I believe.  The similarity is awesome, especially since the HUI (then) and $Gold (now) were both hitting similar technical resistance points.  If memory serves, SMSC jumped off the bullish wagon about the same point, but never really got back on……..all the way to HUI 401 as he periodically dropped in to call tops.

We might have a delay, here, at resistance; but I suspect like JS has noted that this short squeeze will keep that delay to a fairly short proposition at this time.

GR

the sound you hear is me printing out a weekly and monthly and the sound of drawers opening and shutting

where is that stubby pencil?

ipso you are right on - i know it

http://www.lewrockwell.com/miller/miller25.html

Oh! 

I imagine a weekly or monthly might be the ticket.

Well I don’t get into the complexities of corrective waves - I use rudimentary counts. I want to know whether we are in a corrective wave or an impulsive wave. Past that I want to know how far we are along in either. That is about it. If there are different counts that all seem plausible, I askk is the outcome different depenting on which is correct - often the answer is no. Then I don’t care which is correct.

J. Welles Wilder was a true pioneer. I use RSI somewhat but like MACD a bit better. I have only briefly tries SARS but without any benefit it seemed. But I like the simplicity and the mathematical cleaniness of his indicators.

BTW on my charts I have begun to assume any point that jumps out will be taken out as a misdirection and a confusuion point - once you operate that way everything still works - so far.

Here we go guys;

Here comes the first step by the Comex to cool off the gold market…. Get ready for even more increases…. These margin hikes are always announced by the exchanges as “prudent steps” that take into consideration the additional volatility in the market, but I promise you, they are nothing less that the steps used by the exchanges to relieve pressure on the members who always happen to be on the short side. I can tell you I have lived through many a down and many an up market and I do not ever recall seeing margins hiked in any down market.

All it ever takes for the Comex to hike margins is for the specs to drive the gold price up for more than 2 weeks and they go directly to panic mode.
Dan

DJ Nymex To Increase Margins For Gold Futures Contracts Thu

Wed Sep 12 18:14:52 2007 EDT
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

The New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday said margins will rise for its
gold and Comex miNY gold futures contracts, effective at the close of business
Thursday.

Margins for the gold futures contract will increase to $2,500 from $2,000 for
clearing and non-clearing members and to $3,375 from $2,700 for customers.

Margins for the Comex miNY gold futures contract will increase to $1,250 from
$1,000 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $1,688 from $1,350 for
customers.

-END-

Floridagold — Rosen’s prediction is quite a call; I agree.  As you say, we’ll see.  (I guess Bernanke could surprise everyone, including Paulson, by raising rates 1/2 point on Sept. 18!)

FTS - I agree, but I also have no doubt that Gold will, at some point, go through a major correction.  I just don’t think it’s now…the yellow metal is hardly in the sort of speculative, heady territories that suggest a steep correction, especially after 16 months of listlessness.

GR - Yep, I remember Rosen coming late to the party on that 165-401 run as well.  I think he entered when the HUI bested the 2003 highs, so around 255 if I remember correctly.  Rosen still got a good chunk of it, and I don’t remember when he decided to sell, but I do recall that he was a naysayer right up until the 255 breakout.  We’ll soon see if he’s still a good contrarian indicator.  (Frank Barbara also told his readers to sell, sell, sell and short the gold market, in Dec. 2005.)

One final note– Rosen recently told his readers to sell — it was when HUI broke lower than 317.  So, those that listened probably got out at HUI 310 and then watched it march back up to the 360s.  Ouch!  However, I don’t want to show hubris here…anything is possible, including the idea that Rosen (and Frank Barbara) are 100% right.  So, let me not tempt the gods and merely say…we’ll soon see.

Grandpa

I believe you are dead right on trying to measure human emotions, exactly, from past behavior. I agree, there can be similarities that last for awhile but then, just when you think it will work one more time, it doesn’t. Some little thing changes and it starts the ball rolling in another direction. The art of TA is trying to recognize these changes as fast as you can because when everybody else finally figures it out its time to move on to where nobody is looking yet. That is why some of my charts may seem a little unorthodoxd in the way they appear. A bullish rising wedge or a formation that everyone is looking at the same top to start their analysis from, and I will start it from the first reaction low just to see if I can make any sense out of it.
When I first read Rosen it seemed to good to be true with his Delta turning points. I got the impression his delta turning points couldn’t miss, but I’ll have to be honest, his calls have not been that good even with his Delta turning points. Nobody is perfect and we all make some bad calls but that is the nature of the beast we play with. Being able to adapt and change when the market changes will get you further than trying to figure out what happened 30 years ago and trying to extrapolate it to the future in an exact way. Similar rhymes yes, exact rhymes no.
All the best FTS…Rambus

Best wishes to you, with the scarlet C_I.