Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Don’t Cry for Sambucca! 

While he was out at around 400 on the HUI due to the MACD cross and high RSI, so was I in most of my trading positions.  I did get in and out twice more before HUI 460,  I expect he did also but I do not know that for sure as I have not spoken with him.   I also expect he got out around 440/435 on this recent move down, as I did.   As I remember, he nailed the up move at around 290 HUI and rode it hard to 400. 

Personally, I wish Sambucca was still posting because he and I trade a similar system and it was always good conformation for me.   I do not get ALL the moves and I do not get the exact high or lows, but I get probably 75%/80% of the moves and that is enough for latte’s and taco’s! 

I guess what I am trying to say is that IF one has a system or plan that he uses to trade, then you have to adhere to the signals you use,  that is what he did and I expect he has made a lot of $$$$ since the last time he posted here.    Have a great weekend!

Is it possible to know whether GS had a position in Enron and what they were doing with it while they recommended buying? Maybe GS was selling?

“Silver accomplished in 13 weeks, what it took 32 weeks to do in 05.”

 I don’t think so, in fact, if we bottomed in Silver this week(or next), the number of weeks are almost exactly the same.  This momentum run is almost exactly perfect in time and in “price”, and I suspect it will remain that way all the way to the top……………an almost perfect fractal to date.

“Non-Docky”……………..

I don’t see all the reason for so many to be so unwrapped at this time, in fact, I don’t see any reason to be the least bit concerned at this time.  In fact, I think the “unwrapped statements” are a perfect symptom that screams “Bottom Approaching!”  The USD rally has been a nickel-flip at best at this time.  It’s not even a good squiggle in the downtrend of the USD.  The odds are that it gets rejected at 77 at angled resistance and at the 50 day MA, if not a bit higher.  By the end of next week the re-test should be complete. 

The psychology is so far flung away from the fundmentals in the PM sector  it is just crazy at this time.  Thus, we should see the PM sector rally back to the fundamentals, then overshoot on the upside of that mark………

Those getting caught up in the “craze” over the Fed cutting rates are looking at the Fed desperately trying to look like they are still “in control.”  They are……they are printing like crazy, cutting the legs out from under the dollar to the point that it is in free-fall for all intensive purposes.  Rates mean absolutely nothing at this time, in fact, they haven’t for a long time.  The maniacal printing by the Fed is the real game.  Sure, they will probably cut rates,  maybe as soon as the employment numbers this coming Friday, or based on the employment numbers…..and they’ll claim the “rate cut was the culprit”….”Please?”………….GS coming out and jawboning recently simply means, IMO, that they are runing the downside to finish loading up for one heck of a PM run.  Da boyz always come out and state the opposite of what they are doing.   They come out with positive Gold projections at tops- the opposite at bottoms.  The Street has become the gutter. 

The LT fractal in the $Gold chart remains intact as does the intermediate fractal in the Silver chart.  I expect that many comments made this week will be eaten over the next several weeks as the HUI takes off for 600 to 640.

Just my opinion…………..

arch0708.goldtent.net/2007/05/17/on-days-like-yesterday/

Outside of here I have never heard of Kaplan nor read anything of his - I have heard him mentioned here with derision from time to time. I do not subscribe nor read but one or two newletters and those not for trading advice. Your correlation comment is not clear to me. When I look at any chart I try to look with an open mind and I automatically do wave counts even if it is a chart of our phone bill. It is just a habit. I use no chants though I know you are kidding.

I did once post a picture here on the Tent of Barney in front of a spirit house looking for market direction inspiration. You might find that on a search. That stuff is his area.

aurum

See y’all at coffee in the morning.

aurum

….dont you think if you are using E Wave and t A….you are betting on past corelations repeating……

…the first thing tonite we agree on though is that gold can and will rally no matter if the buck tanks or not…cause its going up in All Currencies……

arch0708.goldtent.net/2007/11/25/global-fiat-currencies-global-inflation-data/

….I guess to sum up..you look at charts and then sit back and go Ooohhhhmmmmm….

…….are you sure yu are not reading Kaplan again…he is dangerous you know

I miss his posts. And he was right many times. Yes he missed that one rally (or perhaps others). Still the secret IMO is money management and I suspect he did that so I am not worried about one wrong call.

I have to be confident in what I do - I don’t think you can win without confidence. Now that does not mean I do not have exit plans in case I am wrong which of course I will be from time to time. For example I posted what my exit plans and points were on the Dow to Ment I think last night in my Dow outlook that he jokingly asked me for. I think he thinks everyone knows it is going down. Ment correct me if I am wrong here. But I don’t think it is going down and I suspect there are a lot of shorts not sleeping easily tonight.

aurum DJIA

previous conversations on gold Forum, I stand by my decision to switch from AUA (for which I was quite enthusiastic on Gold Forum about 3 years ago) to Roca (ROK.V).  I am not posting the AUA 3-year chart since AUA holders know what it looks like, but below is the 3-year chart for Roca.  Our exposure to the moly play is through Amerigo, Northern Dynasty, and Roca, so I am not anxious to get deeper into this specific metal sector by adding a fourth holding which, if I did it, would likely be  AUA. 

If anyone has countering opinions that AUA is a better bet than ROK in terms of production schedule, resources in the ground in the project area, relations with aboriginal interests in the project area, or other relevant criteria for comparing AUA and ROK, I would welcome any postings on the subject.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROK.V&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83832138808

While I do think from time to time as now (US Dollar) one market is key to others that does not mean that it causes the moves in the others - it might be what do they call that - not coincidental no but what causes one causes the other.

Anyway, I look at each market separately and I don’t care what other markets are doing it is only that one market that I am looking at - I don’t want to be biased by believeing that because I have this opinion about one market it means I have to think something else about another market. As TQ said look at each chart with a blank mind.

For example it will not surprise me to see the US Dollar rally much higher and longer than most expect but yet at the same time (after a few months from now) gold will also rally. Now a person might see the US Dollar rallying and say well gold will not rally. That is not looking at the chart with an open mind.

Yes I know I often use explanations that well this happened so that happened myself, but I do it because it is something everyone wants and believes in. The truth, IMO, is too hard to explain.

aurum charts Zen

Thanks for your thoughts and reasoning concerning what you have done and are doing.  Have a good weekend!

…If you see the U S Dollar in rally Mode….How can you be Long U S Stocks…..For the longest time the US Stock market only goes up when the Dollar Falls……careful in being too sure..remember Sambucca..?

…still in Self Imposed Detention over missing the last move……

interesting chart of Dow in Euros….

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=:&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=6&id=p06702238011

I should have added that I sometimes do not resolve counts satisfactorily to my mind so this is not that rare. Usually the difference makes no difference to the investment plan. For example were I a buy and hold whether my count or anyone else’s that I have seen is correct would not matter - all point up in one way or another. My plan called for $850 pog in December - it came in November a month early. I planned to sell all in early December anyway so why not just do it in mid-November which would give the bonus of I thought from the charts of having money to catch the US Dollar and most world stock market lows. I don’t really get concerned that I can’t come up with a neat and straightforward count on the smaller degrees except were I to be around as we get near the end of this mega cycle bull - but then too I would sell early. I often do and I try to.

aurum pog EW

But here is the problem for the Cartel:

I admire Rambus greatly. In fact his count and charts on the world stock markets were one reason I invested the way I have in them. But I do not believe we are in Wave III in any pm market that I follow. I could come up with alternate counts, no doubt, to this year’s moves that would not break any rules - but to what purpose? This correction will identify itself in time and all will be hopefully clear. I have taken this path so spending time now on the charts is perhaps interesting but to no purpose.

I can say were I to buy back the stocks I sold I could get them much cheaper today than I sold them for. And I believe in my ability to get them back at a lower price than I sold them - now it may be even higher than today but still lower than I sold them. But I don’t think so. Some weeks a go in talking about the US Dollar I posted that I thought it was the key to many markets. Seeing the chart that screamed “I am going up” convinced me to sell almost all grain and to buy US stocks (as well as world stocks) and to sell pm’s more readily than I might have. I still believe, for now, that the US Dollar chart is the one to watch.

aurum HUI, US Dollar, Stock Market