anatomy of a market

inputs to production are usually referred to as commodities. we have petroleum, metals, farm products, interest rates, and variations thereof. sometimes when a shortage develops, actual or perceived, prices can rise rapidly. the consumers of those commodities will buy aggressively because they will be out of business without them. they will keep buying as the price rises because they fear a further rise and perhaps unavailability. when the buying climaxes, the consumers have usually hoarded all they could get their hands on, so when the price drops they look at their plentiful inventory and decide “we don’t need any more today and tomorrow the price will be less.” a good example of this is the wheat market. even though we had just a few weeks supply on hand, the harvest around the world were just good enough to continue supply and the price dropped significantly and continues to fall even with low stocks. the buyers purchased more than they needed and they think they have enough until the next harvest. price has rationed the supply.

currently the crude oil and bean oil markets have had multi year runs. at some point, price will ration the available supply and the price will fall much further than anyone can understand unless they understand about hoarding on the way up and hand to mouth buying on the way down. bull markets run far further than the physical supply would indicate. todays bulls can use profits from the run to buy put options to cushion the losses and they can buy with reckless abandon. as the market rolls over and those puts become profitable, they fuel the slide to the downside. now you have long speculators and put writers having to cover what amouts to double the open interest.( assuming the longs purchased a put for every long position) the use of options was originally meant to buffer the violent swings in the markets but they acutally have caused more volatility and increased selloffs. since the public is always overwhelmingly on the long side, the selloffs are far more dramtic than they would be if the public was on both sides of the market. hope this helps some understan why price runs both ways are far more dramatic than reason would suggest.

rno

PM Fever GR….just caught upon last nites posts….

…Looks like after my phone died…you went on a terror……Glad to see you are comming out…..Have a Cold one on me….hehe…..

….and looks like tonite you are reving up again…….that is one scary mind you got there….does it have an overdrive shift..?…..do you know where the breaks are..?….Chess Football Charts and Teeth..quite a resume…..

…….thanks for the VK summary……thats is Quintillion..?……between her and Leo Wanta…..well they control all the fiat and then some…..

floridagold @ 23:23 pm

If I my may…I would like to 2nd FGC’s commendation.

Great stuff!

Thanks.

Fullgoldcrown @ 23:10 pm

glad they are of benefit to you and the Tent!  I certainly like to pay attention to what is happening around the world and whether other countries are making highs as we are.  Have a great rest of the weekend!

PM — top dog ?

impossible for me to call. all things were very compartmentalised and we were but one aspect of a bigger picture. ain’t got a clue as to where it all consolidated [land-sea-air intel] but i can ‘guess’ the central banksters got the distilled summarys first and then gave thier marching orders to all thier underling commanders including the president from what i can now glean at this stage in life. yep ‘usery’ comes in all forms, shapes and sizes.
:mrgreen: wj

Floridagold..Thanks for thr Gold Around the World Links

….they are stunning….look at those breakouts….as Central Banks intensify the Race to the Bottom….

arch0708.goldtent.net/2007/09/08/gold-around-the-world/

Goldrunner

One thing I have developed in this long life is patience. I know you are busy, so just do what you can when you can. I always appreciate all of your wonderful contributions to this forum. VK info is just icing on the cake!

Irish,

Sign me up pronto ! I’ll work for donuts, sun and sand ..

Forget this 3 x 12 hr day work weekend in cold, rainy Vancouver..   

 big hug Big hug for all you do 

PM 22:28

yep ya inticed me to peek over there at the ‘exchange’ you had and i seen the vk and i seen voronsky posting you-tube too! wow he musta seen the light or the stars at night or the bight of might or a fight or flight or the height of a kite or the sight of right or the tight bite of advertisors telling him to take a hike! HA! wj

irish 22:25

we had 3 types of small arms on board for the ole ‘landing parties/repell boarders’ action and the thompson was one of them along with the m1 carb and side arm colt semi and of course the suicide sling shot major weapon of them all the [drum roll please]….nuke. oooooooooooooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
:mrgreen: wj

Moggy @ 20:50 pm

“What we must do is rise above how scary it is, for what cannot touch us cannot affect us. The only way to combat evil as it swirls around us is to induce the emotion of love within our hearts.”

Truer words have never been spoken in this forum, and yet I wonder how many will actually understand what you are saying. Thank you for being here for us! :)

Goldrunner: Thanks to you also for broaching the VK Durham subject. VK still fascinates me, to the (limited) degree that I can understand her story.

PM 22:23

yes i read that the other day or so. thats why i went on my verbal hunting trip all day. just love to track the ‘game’ critters. they are so very easy especially when they think no one is paying attention other than thier groupies. :mrgreen: wj

PM - profound just simply profound..please pass a slice of fruitcake! wj

(Son_of_Benson) Nov 10, 22:02

I really think one man’s top and bottom are not another mans top and bottom.

AuGirl

I am just peachy thank you. Oatmeal and biscut and gravy mix are on slow simmer ahhhh the smell of garlic in the gravy mix would make G,R salivate. Donut run commin up.
And how is possibly the newest member of Young’s Law Firm[Belize] doing? I’m gonna get ya ,I’m gonna get ya , so look out girl cause I’m gonna get ya….I’m gonna make you love ……….

Oops………VK link…..

http://www.theantechamber.net/V_K_Durham/LetsTakeOurMoneyBack.htm