Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

“Start now buying gold coins, any kind, and hoarding them.”   - Dr. John L. King

EXCELLENT CHARTWORK!!!!

….Armstrong comments contained inside, just like some posts from the night before were “pulled.”

 The bottom line is this.  All of the “fractal charts” seem to be running in unison in a timely manner as far as I can tell. 

[It is basically the whole template I put together back in 04 and early 05 with only one catch.  We had the extended sideways move in the HUI with the general market also delayed in rolling over as the ”liquidity cycles”  would have suggested.  I (later) had suggested that da boyz had been forced to increase liquidity (only way to get more liquidity to the general markets at the time) to the point of “delaying the regular liquidity patterns”, but was not sure of it until you posted that chart of the Gold Shorts covering.  The regular cycle for the PM stocks to see liquidity roll over to them should have come in late 2006 or early 2007 and the general market should have rolled over at that time, also, but…………  Somebody had told me that GS was not concerned about their massive short position in early 2006 because they had a plan.  After FRR had posted about Ian Notely, Notely had also stated in October of 06 that all signs pointed to him that the general markets should be at the point of rolling over.  Yet, da boyz were caught with massive Gold shorts that had to be covered, the Armstrong date that so many follow was coming up in Feb of 07, and it would have been complete “deflationary disaster” in terms of general equities and bonds (now knowing the derivative debacle coming forth) for a rotation of liquidity into a momentum run in the PM sector to have occurred in that timeframe.  Thus, I believe that they cloaked M3, changed the oil index, probably used some type of monetization of subprimes and debt that allowed them to massively increase liquidity without the usual loans…….but found a way to suspend things while they protected the stock and bond markets while covering the Gold shorts.  In the process the HUI traded sideways out of its channel.  As soon as they had the Gold shorts down by about 80%, they took the Gold stocks (HUI) up very aggressively back into the channel and took Gold up while continuing to cover the Gold shorts.  Why, you might ask.  Easy- they NEED the PM sector going higher to protect against the deflationary massive backdrop- a deflationary spiral only staved off by “infaltion.”  The only weapons they have against this K-Wave Winter massive deflationary backdrop is dollar inflation which leads to price inflation, along with the perception of inflation to investors- otherwise the whole ball of wax melts down.  Yet, they also have to prevent the PM sector from going into “free-rise” because all of the liquidity will run to the PM sector while the stocks and bonds melt down.  Thus, da boyz are breaking all of the rules to force the already necessary liquidity rotations in the normal Elliot Wave configuration that creates that of a normal PM parabola as seen in the 70s…….Hell, they were probably doing the same thing back then.]

I had intended to show all of this in an editorial a couple of weeks, ago, but……..   Anyhow, if you think back to the LT Gold Fractal I have been following since around 2003, I had fairly recently shown how we were now due to go vetical (into what I think is May of 08, but could be longer with the delay) up to what I have been calling 1105 to 1237……but remember, the 1237 number was my number back in early 07 and I have not been able to annotate to see if it might be higher, recently.   The 1105 number is a Gann number which I have no experience with….I think the next Gann number is like 1437ish.

Still, that LT Gold Fractal is currently playing out with a vertical run I expect to last into mid-08 or so. 

At the same time we have the Silver Fractal chart I presented playing out on a timing and price basis “move for move” with a run that looks like it might be into May of 08 to around $26 to$27, though sometimes I am a bit short in price and in time.

At the same time we have the original HUI work I did with an estimated HUI target of around 1250 into May of 08, though we had the sideways delay….but also an aggressive run back up into it.

We also have my USD chart from late 2006 with price now falling between two lines of support/ resistance with a fair amount of “air” to drop through.

We also have the similar fractal roll-over in the general markest, similar to the fractal expectations……though delayed.

Also, the Fed is between a rock and a hard spot- they have to cut or watch the general markets go over a cliff.  Yet, if they cut the PM sector goes vertical while the bonds tank.  BUT, they new well in advance what all of the cards were that were going to be passed out, no?  That pause in the HUI rise and pause in the general market drop was no natural phenomenon- they used the necessary time to buoy the general market higher….another ST bubble.

The move by LT Gold looks pretty “easy” as this momentum run should naturally cease at some higher level as traders seek a “re-test” of the historical highs…..a perfect fit with EW and with the 70’s Gold Fractal.  IMO, once Gold has broken out above old Historical highs they cannot “delay” the momentum move, and they won’t……so that leaves the question, “How about the PM stocks since the HUI moved laterally for so long?”  Well, if they cannot slow things down by moving sideways after Gold busts out of the historical high, then IMO the HUI must accelerate to rise to the channel top.  We have no LT charts of the HUI (or XAU) with higher highs so there is no resistance above except for “angled resistance” as I have portrayed it…..though angled resistance moves higher with time.

Separately, the earlier fractal sequence in the HUI that portends this move was a pretty messy affair.  It was very difficult to read because we had a very small wave “i”.  In fact, David Petch had to go back and to re-label everything once we had the wave “v” blow-off run to the top of wave 3.  Thus, I suspect that we have had the same characteristics in this fractal, and that we might be very early in wave 5 of III…what will be an extended wave 5 of III with a very vertical move at the end to reach the channel top…..just like the earlier fractal.

 Let’s consider the alternate possibilities.  If we move up in wave 3 of III in the PM stocks, then we’d have some sort of wave 4 correction that would take about a year……..we simply do not have the time because it would have to come at complete odds with the LT Gold fractal chart, IMO.

 As far as JBI’s concern of the explorers moving, I suspect the will start to run fairly shortly, but will go absolutely vertical into the last run of this Wave III move……..remember I had expected SSRI to run up to about 75, then to practically double on the last vertical part…….as seen in fractal one.  With Gold rising and leaving the 3 year trailing average in the dust, we simply have to see a revaluation in the reserves of the PM companies.  BUT, it will still be a fairly subdued revaluation compared to what we will be seeing in WAVE  V of the LT Gold fractal/ true parabolic move.  In that WAVE V, reserves will have to constantly be revalued upward as the Gold and Silver prices spiral higher and higher…..but we have some time before all of that……IMO.  IMO, “Now” will be major moves in mid-caps and junior producers.  This move will end with explorers exploding.  Don’t forget that da boyz fully expect what will look like a pretty sharp drop called a re-test to occur after this Wave III has ended.  I expect that drop to be similar to the earlier fractal…….a very sharp drop all the way to the lows of the correction, early on, then a running correction higher as investors prepare their portfolios for the parabolic Wave V to come.

It looks to me like it is all coming, together………or, I am just plain whacked in the head, which could be true.

BTW, the other thing I wanted to show in an editorial was how the USD dove down to make a “momentum low” during the Wave III rise (which I think we are in.)  That momentum low most likely occured in the Wave III move since the Wave V was likely a time of competitive currency devaluations by all countries….a phenomenon that helped to support the USD.

I apologize for whatever I might have slurred, but writing in this format while only seeing about 3 lines above is a bit difficult, even for meself who loves to “wing things.”  I should have used Word, then “SeattleSunned” it……..he, he, he.

are being subsidized like the stock market…only they get $30 per barrel back from the government (under the radar) instead of the government trying to cap the price (like they can with gold - smaller market).

Or the government gives them an extra 50 cents per gallon of refined fuel…

Or the $95 price is just a prop…?

I’m allowed to drive the hi-lift again? Yippeeeeeeeee..

No worries man , I’ve figured out which button to push for the cappuccino..That’s the most important one right? 

Excellent job you’ve done down there O’ modest one, you’re the driving force …   Cheers pal,   AuGirl

The decline in the dollar is looking more and more like a waterfall with a long way to go yet before we hit the bottom.
Rambus

“Gratitude is when memory is stored in the heart and not in the mind.”

Lionel Hampton

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Enlarge, watch, listen and enjoy.
youtube.com/watch?v=UvYIjFtPQEk

Goodnight, everyone

JBI

Something similar happened many years ago in silver when Warren Buffet was at Salomon Bros. Subsidiary Phibro had planned to goose the silver market, having cornered short term supply. The price of silver was around $5. They bought zillions of silver $5.25 options. Writers of those options breathed a sigh of relief when silver closed only pennies above $5. That sigh didn’t last long. Phibro exercises the options and the writers panicked to get them the silver. The price began to soar. Good story eh? Nope, not in the end.

The US government was investigating a bond scandal at Salomon. They went to Buffet and said stop the silver squeeze or you will be investigated and audited forever. Buffet order Jimmy DePiazza and Phibro to blow out of their trade. That was my first clue how the US was so sensitive to gold and silver prices.

Japanese banks suffer 230 bln yen in subprime losses:

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Japanese financial institutions have had to write down about 230 billion yen ($2.13 billion) on holdings linked to the U.S. subprime mortgage market, according to reports. Japan’s financial regulator, the Financial Services Agency, released the figure late Thursday saying it represented losses suffered by major and regional banks, credit associations and credit cooperatives as of Sept. 30, the Nikkei News reported in its Friday morning edition. All combined, Japanese financial institutions are holding 1.3 trillion yen in assets linked to the riskiest portion of the U.S. residential mortgage market, the report said. The report said major banks had 1.2 trillion yen in subprime-related holdings while regional banks has 110 billion yen and credit associations and credit cooperatives reported 20 billion yen in exposure. The financial regulator added Japan’s six major banks are expected to report combined losses of 300 billion yen in subprime-related losses in the financial year ending March 31, 2008. The financial agency surveyed financial institutions on their holdings on asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations with subprime loans as underlying assets.

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Asia/Pacific Region - bourses mixed:

finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

As the US $$$$$ keeps sinking……..

tinyurl.com/2voq5s

JBI

A sweet dream notion:As a futures trader, I am always trying to anticipate the unexpected and to look out for where the maximum paid can be inflicted by other traders. If I was holding in the money December options (and there are quite a few in the money calls right now), I could cause the MAXIMUM pain to the shorts by exercising after the close tomorrow. By doing so I would force those traders who are short futures to run for cover on Friday which will most likely be a day with fewer participants and possibly fewer cartel members hanging around. The market will be “thin” and ripe for a run up.

MAXIMUM bang for the buck could occur Friday and/or Monday when participants are NOT expecting an early exercise of a large number of call options.

I expect something like this to occur and that alone could give us the biggest day in decades……much bigger than today’s action!

for those comments ……. I hope that is truly the case ….. either way, I’ll be sitting tight with my little basket of goodies …. just hope some of that “best” will end up developing soon …. like maybe within the next few weeks or so.   

JBI

I still believe that the three of THREE of iii of III and so on is still ahead of us. Once it arrives we will all recognize it easily. We will see record volumes on most pm stocks for many weeks, if not months, and find them in the most active lists of the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ day after day for a very long time. We still have a long way to go. The very very best of the BEST is yet to come. I believe that it will come after we overcome the all time highs in GOLD and have a succesful backtest of the breakout. Best to be patient and not try to figure out every turn. This bull has a mind of its own and wants to take up as few as possible. It will try to lure most into believing it is over or that the best is already behind us. Don’t fall for it.

Cheers!

JBI