“footnotes” and “pro-formas” will be two contributing factors to a future melt down in commercial real estate. Quote from NYTimes article:
What raised eyebrows was the financing of 666 Fifth and other buildings sold late last year and early this year, said Robert M. White Jr., the president of Real Capital Analytics, a New York research firm.
A group of lenders led by the real estate unit of Barclays Capital agreed to provide an interest-only first mortgage of $1.215 billion based on an annual cash flow of $114 million, or 1.5 times the debt service, according to a document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
But a footnote pointed out that the cash flow from existing rents would actually cover only 0.65 percent of the debt service. Mr. White calculated that the building’s shortfall amounts to $5 million a month. A $100 million reserve fund was included in the debt package to cover the shortfall.
“This is one of the best examples of how excessive the lending market got,” Mr. White said. “Fortunately, before it got too far out of control, the market clamped down and put a stop to it all.” Barclays had no comment.
Two very good reads..
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/realestate/commercial/07kushner.html?_r=4&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/11/credit-crunch-hits-commercial-real.html