Originally, as you may recall, I thought the rally would last into late December possibly early in January. That would have been the usual 6-8 month rally. And then I expected the whole move from 2000 to correct. When the drop came in mid-November that should not have happened there under my scenario, I knew something was wrong. I had been moving out anyway on the rallies and was out of all Juniors except for RBY. You may recall I suggested on the Tent to use rallies to move out of Juniors and into Majors a couple of months at least ago. In fact I posted and I did use the proceeds of the Juniors to buy SLV as it seemed to be lagging GLD at the time and I felt it to be a more sure investment rather then stock picking at that late stage. And BTW RBY should have broken out of the triangle when the HUI rallied before mid-November and then retested the triangle. It did not so that meant to me sell. In any case with the few majors (AEM, GG, SLW, SSRI, and some others) and RBY I waited for the rule of thumb 50% retracement of that steep mid-November drop and sold all. I did this because even if I was early and the mid-November drop was just some event still I could hear the roar of the waterfall. When I sold all (and from my families accounts also), I also emailed a couple of people to tell them what I was doing. These folks had emailed me from time to time and seemed interested in what I was doing.
There was IMO always something about that move up from a late start that should have started in May to June and seemed to but then took that nasty dip but then turned around and went in a too narrow channel too far too fast. It just didn’t feel right so I had no problem jumping perhaps early.
I still think we will get a rally in mid-December but from what point and for how high? Nonetheless I may trade it with GLD or GDX. But I still think the correction will be months not weeks so we have some quite of bit of time left in it IMO. As far as the long sideways correction it is typical of a wave 4 or possibly a wave B. I know neither seems right so don’t argue please with me - a wave 4 should bring a real wave 5 and the move up seems as most folks want it to be just wave 1 of a bigger impulsive up wave - but it is not IM strong O.. Otherwise the wave 5 seems a runt but not enough of a runt to be a failed fifth - truncated fifth. It is even less likely a B because of the height that was achieved IMO.
No I always struggled with the wave 1 of that last run up before mid-November and now I struggle with the runt wave 5 if that is what it is. I was going to spend more time on it but I decided I would just give myself a headache and probably never reach a satisfactorily conclusion. But when things contradict my scenario I generally retreat to regroup. In any case I wanted to change the whole character of my (and my families portfolios). We had been entirely in pm’s and a few base metal stocks. I wanted to have a substantial position in world stock markets and energy and even the US Dollar so I went to 100% cash in mid-November. I can tell you I can’t ever recall moving from fully invested as I was (I even bought pm’s in my checking account) in the late summer to 100% cash in mid-November - making that big of a change. I generally move slowly in and out.
And in the week or so after going to all cash I have moved about 75% of everyone’s money back into this time stock market and US dollar ETF’s. In a few months (not counting the possible December trade) I will buy pm’s and I will sell some of the above positions so that I can invest say 40-50% in pm’s and base metals. When I do this I will post and put the charts on the Tent of the bigger positions and ones I have more confidence in. I have done that with the bigger positions I have in the Vanguard stock market ETF’s. Those charts are over at IMDB.
www.goldtent.net/phpbb_admin/viewtopic.php?t=130
I will spent more time on the HUI chart as this correction and likely December rally play out. I posted quite a few days ago that I thought the short termers would have two chances to exit - well the first has come and gone on November 23. The second IMO will be in mid-December. That will be the last chance for the short termers (traders) IMO. Buy and hold folks will hold (I hope) as there are IMO much, much higher prices ahead. Nonetheless I expect the correction to last months.
But to finally answer your question - the long consolidation could be typical perhaps in a wave 4. The shortness and oddity though of this last move has me baffled for now but it does not IMO change what is coming and what I think now has already started.
aurum HUI EW
Loading ...
