mr_gold_bug @ 20:40 pm
I don’t know much about that Hommelburg guy, but after perusing the first graph of his essay - He has a point concerning the length of time of the latest consolidation and the length of time of the subsequent renewal of trend. Whether or not he actually made that specific point or not.
From what I have observed in my short “market life”, long term corrections of trend resolve into long lengthy moves. He is correct in likening the late ‘05 move with today’s move. Both were preceeded with long corrections - a quick inaccurate count looks like a 10 month correction +/- before the ‘05 lift off (Day after Katrina hit nawlins) compared to a 16 month correction we are currently rallying from.
The ‘05 rally went for $275 (725-450), this one started around 700 and has hit ~850ish so far. So we have a much longer correction with a much lower nominal gain in au in the current rally, SO FAR. This leads me to believe and bet heavily that we have more room to go higher over the short term.
Don’t even get me started on the height of the ‘05 correction compared to this last one!! I could write a speal on that too!
For reference - Gold Weekly
Look at how the macd and adx looked during corrections within the late ‘05 to ‘06 rally - to me the macd in late Oct ‘05 looks so similar (to scale) to right now, that I think even Hommelburg could be a few months ahead of where we really are in this run.
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