Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

….what a cesspool eh?

I don’t know much about that Hommelburg guy, but after perusing the first graph of his essay - He has a point concerning the length of time of the latest consolidation and the length of time of the subsequent renewal of trend.  Whether or not he actually made that specific point or not.

From what I have observed in my short “market life”, long term corrections of trend resolve into long lengthy moves.  He is correct in likening the late ‘05 move with today’s move.  Both were preceeded with long corrections - a quick inaccurate count looks like a 10 month correction +/- before the ‘05 lift off (Day after Katrina hit nawlins) compared to a 16 month correction we are currently rallying from.

The ‘05 rally went for $275 (725-450), this one started around 700 and has hit ~850ish so far.  So we have a much longer correction with a much lower nominal gain in au in the current rally, SO FAR.  This leads me to believe and bet heavily that we have more room to go higher over the short term.

Don’t even get me started on the height of the ‘05 correction compared to this last one!!  I could write a speal on that too!

For reference - Gold Weekly 

Look at how the macd and adx looked during corrections within the late ‘05 to ‘06 rally - to me the macd in late Oct ‘05 looks so similar (to scale) to right now, that I think even Hommelburg could be a few months ahead of where we really are in this run.

If you have $5 or $5 million in the stock market, you better take the time to read this. It will open your eyes to why and how PM’s are being suppressed. ie shorted to death.   Here’s a short cut and paste:

Who Profits from this Illicit Activity? — The short answer is everyone who participates. Specifically:

1. The shorts — They win over ninety percent of the time. Their return on investment is enormous because they don’t put any capital up when they sell short — they get cash from the sale delivered to their account. As long as the stock price remains under their short sale price, it is all profit on no investment.
2. The prime brokers — The shorts need the prime brokers to aid in counterfeiting shares, which is the cornerstone of the fraud. Not only do the prime brokers get sales commissions and interest on margin accounts, they charge the shorts “interest” on borrowed shares. This can be as high as five percent per week. The prime brokers allegedly make eight to ten billion dollars a year from their short stock lend program. The prime brokers also actively short the victim companies, making large trading profits.
3. The DTC — A significant amount of the counterfeiting occurs at the DTC level. They charge the shorts “interest” on borrowed shares, whether it is a legitimate stock borrow or counterfeit shares, as is the case in a vast majority of shares of a company under attack. The amount of profit that the DTC receives is unknown because it is a private company owned by the prime brokers

The Cover Up — The securities industry, certain “respected” members of corporate America who like the profits from illegal shorting, certain criminal elements and our federal government do not want the public to become aware of this problem.

The reason for the cover up is money.

Here’s the url for the whole document.

counterfeitingstock.com/CounterfeitingStock.html

Well for all GSS supporters I see President & CEO Mr Bradford who will soon be stepping down, purchased 100,000 shares today. Maybe they still are producing some Gold.    

www.gsr.com/Investment/Financial_Information/SEC_Filings/

The first thing that came to my mind when I saw this GS call was that they are trying to attract shorts to come in so that they can squeeze them. GS tends to have a habit of playing the other side of the market they call on. Particularly as you often see counter-trend moves before the fundamentals kick-in. In this context I would not be surprised to see GS long up to Gold @1000USD, profiting from some possibly premature speculative shorting. Then for them to try to profit on the reaction down as gold hits round number resistance. If this were to happen, they could claim that they did what they said they would i.e. play a short trade. Note that they didn’t specify from what level of Gold it should be shorted.

Just my 2 cents in terms of trying to think like the criminals that GS clearly are…

-Scarab

betting on a cut from the Bank of England. I wonder what would happen to the dollar if they didn’t get one?

FROM MIDAS

“Hi Bill
You know I love a good conspiracy so when I heard that a NEW version of the Wizard of Oz was coming out AT THIS TIME I had to watch it and look for clues about my theories on a return to a form of the gold/silver standard.

Here is the link to the mini series called “Tin Man” www.scifi.com/tinman/

As entertainment is wasn’t bad. With 6.3M viewers it was a home run for the Scifi Channel. Although I kept trying to read into the characters, plot and scenery I couldn’t find anything that resembled what what Frank Baum had originally constructed advocating the bimetal standard in the original Wizard of Oz (www.micheloud.com/FXM/MH/Crime/wwizoz.htm)

Then it happened. After 3 days of watching this mini series and nearing the end the new Dorothy (DG) comes across the old dorothy (her great grandmother) and they flash down to her feet…SILVER SLIPPERS! Now if you remember the movie Dorothy had Ruby slippers BUT in the original book she had silver slippers to represent the bimetal standard. It was a big scandal for all the conspiracy freaks like myself that such an important feature of the story was likely “forcibly” changed in the movie to appease the powers to be.

Make no mistake, the Ruby Slippers worn by Dorothy are the most famous and valuable shoes IN THE WORLD. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruby_slippers They held the key to her power to get home if you recall. Why would the new movie REMOVE the most memorable part of the old Dorothy’s recognition …..the world famous shoes?

That got me thinking… how is today’s market manipulation scam related to what Baum was fighting for back in 1900 and if Baum were writing today how would the new characters and new story line be portrayed? It was interesting that between commercials the announcer kept saying this is what happens “after the yellow brick road”. I have a strong feeling that these characters may be cleverly modeled after today’s players in the monetary scam that GATA is knee deep in. ONE OF THESE CHARACTERS MAY EVEN REPRESENT YOU BILL! This may take some time to look at but WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE TO DO WHILE WAITING FOR GOLD AND SILVER TO FINALLY BREAK FREE?!

Off on the hunt…

Bix”

We are only at the beginning of the financial world coming to its senses after the bursting of the biggest credit bubble the world has seen. Everyone seems to acknowledge now that there will be lots of mortgage foreclosures and that house prices will fall nationally for the first time since the Great Depression. Some lenders and hedge funds have failed, while some banks have taken painful write-offs and fired executives. There’s even a growing recognition that a recession is over the horizon.

But let me assure you, you ain’t seen nothing, yet.

What’s important to understand is that, contrary to what you heard from President Bush yesterday, this isn’t just a mortgage or housing crisis. The financial giants that originated, packaged, rated and insured all those subprime mortgages were the same ones, run by the same executives, with the same fee incentives, using the same financial technologies and risk-management systems, who originated, packaged, rated and insured home-equity loans, commercial real estate loans, credit card loans and loans to finance corporate buyouts.

It is highly unlikely that these organizations did a significantly better job with those other lines of business than they did with mortgages. But the extent of those misjudgments will be revealed only once the economy has slowed, as it surely will.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120402186.html

by Carol Paul

I’ve been contacted a few times about writing a personal story of our family, because we have been called “The American Dream” family by people who know us well. In doing this, it would have to start with the man RON PAUL, who saw the American Dream and decided that it could be his - and now he wants it to be yours if you so choose.

Ron’s grandfather came from Germany at the age of 14. After being here six months, his father died and he had to make his way in a new country with a new language. He became a truck farmer in a small town in Pennsylvania. He eventually married, and had four sons and one daughter. The second son was Howard Paul, Ron’s father.

Howard Paul continued to run the dairy that his father started from the basement garage of their home. They had horse-drawn delivery wagons. Howard was able, with an 8th grade education, to build a dairy with 20 refrigerated trucks and a modern dairy building. Ron’s mother kept the books and raised five sons, who were all born within seven years during the 1930’s.

Ron was the third son of Howard and Margaret Paul, and was brought up with the work ethic that you worked six days a week and went to church on the seventh. Ron’s first job at age 5 was to watch his uncle wash the bottles and put them on a conveyer belt. He got a penny for every dirty bottle that he found. He was serious about his job and was very proud that he could help.

Ron delivered newspapers in grade school early in the morning. You had to put the newspapers inside the screen doors and not just throw them in the yard. And speaking of yards, he mowed a lot of lawns, and he didn’t have a self-propelled lawnmower. He paid for his first year of college with newspaper and lawn-mowing money.

During High School, Ron worked in a drug store - his brothers said he worked there so he could eat ice cream when he wanted it - but he learned a lot about business and pharmacy that helped in years to come. He also had a part-time job painting the school in the summer and delivering furniture for a local store. In college, he delivered laundry, and he even delivered mail during the Christmas holidays.

I actually came into the picture about 1952 when Ron was my escort to my 16th birthday party. Don’t tell anyone - but I asked him… actually my birthday is February 29th and it was a Sadie Hawkins-type party where the girls asked the boys… and I asked him.

Ron was a track star in high school, winning state as a junior in the 220-yard dash and 2nd in the 440. He ran the 100 in 9.8, and that was pretty fast for the early 1950s. He was also on the wrestling team. He was president of the student council and an honor student while working and participating in sports.

A serious knee injury took him out of major track (he beat one young man that went to the Olympics), but added swimming for therapy and he soon became a member of the college swim team. He was offered a full college scholarship to run track but did not accept it, feeling he might not be able to regain his speed. To this day he exercises with bicycle riding, walking, and swimming, and feels lucky that he can do these sports.

We went away to college (different colleges in different states), but always kept in touch. On February 1, 1957, we married in an all-white wedding with the bridesmaids carrying armloads of red roses. The flower girl wore a white dress and sprinkled rose petals down the aisle. A fraternity brother of Ron’s sang “The Wedding Prayer” and the “Lord’s Prayer.” Both are very special to us, even today.

We spent his last semester in college married, and living on the third floor of an old home in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. I worked as secretary to the faculty and attended some evening classes with Ron. For one year Ron was manager of the college coffee shop called “The Bullet Hole.” He worked as steward and house manager for his fraternity, and had a small scholastic scholarship to help finance his way through college.

After college, we headed to Durham, North Carolina, where Ron attended Duke University School of Medicine. I worked as a medical secretary, and our first two children were born at Duke. We had a tiny little blue frame house that my grandmother called the “Doll House.” We thought it was wonderful.

We were able to buy a registered collie for our big backyard, and she helped raise our first two children. Actually, she got us home one Thanksgiving because she had a litter of puppies - and we were able to sell one for $35, which gave us enough money for gas to drive home so the family could see our two beautiful children.

After Medical School, we lived in Detroit, Michigan, where Ron did an internship and one year of an Internal Medicine Residency. I ran a dancing school in the basement of our home and taught ballet and tap dancing and baton twirling. Just to tell you what kind of budget we were on, the dancing school paid for the newspaper and for extra expenses we had when a month had five weeks!

When the Cuban Crisis came, Ron answered his country’s call and became a flight surgeon in the United States Air Force. We received orders to move to San Antonio, Texas. On our way to Texas, we stopped in Pennsylvania long enough to have our third child delivered. Then we gathered up our kids and dogs and took off for Texas.

Arriving with three children from ages 4 to 3 weeks old, we loved Texas immediately. Finding out we didn’t have to bother with snowsuits, mittens, and boots was an extra gift.

Even when Ron was in the military, we kept working. I learned to cake decorate, which I have put to good use over the past years. And Ron learned to fly a plane, and he worked extra emergency-room duty. They were fun-filled years.

We spent Ron’s tour of duty in San Antonio. When his tour was up, he completed his OB/GYN medical training, but he did stay in the Air National Guard for several years. He always believed that America should be ready to defend her borders.

Then in 1968, on July 3rd we arrived in Brazoria County, Texas, and that has been our home since that day. Ron has delivered over 4,000 babies, and we have been married for over 50 years. We’ve raised a family of five children, and they have given us eighteen beautiful grandchildren, and one great-grandchild. We have friends all over the State of Texas as well as friends throughout the United States who believe in limited government. That in itself is a testimony to a great and humble man.

So the American Dream came true for a boy who delivered newspapers, a teen-ager who mowed lawns, delivered milk, delivered furniture, delivered laundry, and delivered mail, and for a man who then delivered babies. Now that dream continues with a man who is trying to deliver the message that freedom works and that patriotism must not grow weak in the hearts of all Americans. And liberty reigns to help us hang on to our Republic for which the Founders gave their last measure of devotion.

Yo ho ho… boy I had forgotten about the oak tree with the chain around it. Lordy we looked all over that island  for that tree.

Thanks all & good night. And  good people, tomorrow where UXG is concerned

buymore

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg120407.html

“snip” 

An article appeared with yesterday’s date from the Goldman Sachs (GSax) investment team. The most eye-catching recommendation was to short gold for 2008.

It’s worth a chuckle that the same investment advisors who have unblushingly overstated their own assets by a factor of hundreds of BILLIONs of $’s over the last year should feel competent to continue peddling their advice on what someone else’s assets will be worth next year.

point that you posted at 12:13 about not tipping one’s hand.  My interpretation of your point  was that I am such an extremely small fish in the  PM investment world that my comments dont mean anything anyway.  I tend to favor freedom of expression over concern about how my comments may be used by data-miners or by those who follow trends in public opinion.   I would loose a lot of my enjoyment of the freedom of expression that Goldtent now offers if I were to curtail opinions on various investment choices.  Although the truth is, I do exercise considerable discretion and non-sharing of information  already and I assume that the same is true for most others who post on Goldtent. 

I conclude that discretion and moderation are the operative guidelines and I thank you for reminding me of that.  I hope you accept my apology, as there are certainly no hard feelings here.  Let’s carry on and try to make some profit in this PM market.  Best wishes.

“In November 2000, the gold index, HUI, sold for 35.31. At that time gold was either totally ignored or despised. At that time I stated that I thought the bear market in gold was over. I added that gold shares were so cheap that many could be bought as “perpetual warrants.” Happily, a number of my subscribers scooped up those ridiculous bargains and as far as I know, they still hold them. Yesterday HUI sold for 405.86, which represented a gain of 1057%. So it goes in the wild and wooly world of investing.”  Richard Russell today.