Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Nice to see you posting again.  I have always appreciated your commentary and insights.

I was just on the phone with Aguilla talking Hamm stuff. What is this about having to wrap 20 meters of wire around in a huge circle or 20 meters one way and 20 the other? Jesus I would rather trade Hecla puts with 24 hours to expiration than tangle with meters of wire wrapped around the Dangriga house. I need help or this is going to look like a Rodney Dangerfield special……….Hello this is Montana civil defense..is Anyone out there! Haaaaaa

Thanks for noticing Rambus and for the charts.  There were several things that I was looking at, including: 

• Hecla is one of my largest positions for many years and I wanted to make sure to protect the recent gains – especially around  year end profit taking.

• For reversals, I look primarily at the moving averages and how far above the 50 and 200 dma it was.  HL could fall a long way in a relatively short period of time.

• It touched the $12.50 area roughly 5 times and could not punch through.

• The relative strength to the other mining stocks the last month was incredible; I will say I thought/hoped it was unjustifiable for it to continue to rally – especially on NO NEWS.  Let me tell you, I was nearly certian there must be positive news which I wasn’t privy to.

• The risk versus reward IMO was worth taking by purchasing near the money puts.

• When I first started buying around Thanksgiving, there was little open interest; a large part was mine.  This told me that the pros were not writing DEC puts…probably because they saw it going lower very soon.

• The MACD and RSI on the daily were rolling over.

• My dad pointed out that it had a large short position with several days to cover. 

• My position was pretty large considering it was expiring in a couple of weeks.  I was sweating.  The time component of the option made the options fairly cheep to buy near the money. 

• As it bumped along the $12.50 resistance, the price became cheaper.  Conclusion: buy more.

• The unfilled gap near $10 seemed very likely.

• Trading the options in my IRA was an easy way to make a quick buck, protect my LT gains in my tax account without selling the stock outright.  I still plan to collect the dividends off the shares I bought at a buck.

Happy Holidays…

Only the Ham radio operators will really ‘get this’.  And I know Irish will want one…

=================
During a recent trip my wife and I were on we drove around the back woods of
East Texas . On one back road I saw a sign in front of a broken down shanty
style house: “Talking Dog for Sale .” Well I needed a break so I stopped to
see what the deal was. I went into the backyard and see a nice looking
Labrador retriever sitting there.

“You talk?” I ask.

“Yep,” the Lab replies.

Well after I got over the shock of hearing a dog talk, I asked “So, what’s
your story?”

“Ah shucks there ain’t much to tell. Is that a VUU screwdriver antenna on
your truck out there?”

“How did you know that,” I ask?

The Lab looks up and says, “Well, I’m a ham radio operator. I got my Ticket
when I was a young pup and in no time at all I had my 5 band DXCC in Phone
and CW.

The CIA heard about me and asked me to do some spy work for them. I would
hang around the communications centers and with my keen hearing I could copy
the transmissions. Because no one figured a dog would be eavesdropping, I
was one of their most valuable spies for eight years.” Copying high speed CW
all day really tired me out and I knew I wasn’t getting any younger.

So, I decided to settle down. I retired from the CIA (8 dog years is 56 CIA
years) and joined a ham radio club. In fact I won fourth place in the
10GHz and Up contest two years in a row. Then I sired a mess of puppies and
got away from Ham Radio for a while. I sure miss my radio. Why don’t you buy
me and I’ll be your CW operator in the Texas QSO Party?

I said “let me see what I can do.” I went back in and ask the owner what he
wants for the dog.

“Ten dollars,” the guy says.

“Ten dollars? This dog is amazing! Why on earth are you selling him so
cheap?”

“Because he’s a liar. He never did any of that stuff. He’s just a No-Code
Technician.”

What are you trying to figure out?  How to recalculate his probability of default equation or find out how he comes up with the PD equation? Pushing the easy button might be easier..   

I guess the out of whack Libor and Fed rates are sending warning bells off about bank worthiness.That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone with the mess some of the banks have been fessing up to.. 

The Iranians not buying oil in USD was supposed to collapse it, but they only sold $7bn per month (at $93/bbl).  The velocity of that would be pretty quick too, probably only $bn1 to $2bn of currency involved in transactions.  So $24bn seems huge.  Another indication the problem is bigger than they are letting on, methinks.  Desperation.

I thought it was more current situation.

Great posts tonight.

Fully, like the Midas from time to time. Uranium topped out at 145/lb. Should move up soon I hope. The spot price is quite labile. The long term contract price hasn’t dropped at all with the spot price correction so unhedged producers should see profits at these contract levels. Unfortunately the shares have corrected with the spot price for the most part.

Rambus and Soee your analysis on HL was top notch. Of course, I didn’t sell on the little rhino horn on the daily. Maybe I should have but I’m a buy and hold for the long term and if I had more time and knowledge I can see how trading in and out on these signals can maximize profits and/or help one acquire more shares.

JBI keep the updates and eagles coming. We are going to bust out soon.

Winedoc

At the bottom of the great Midas piece I noticed the phrase “The Cartel is doomed” or something like it. I do not think these bastards are doomed in one iota. They have planned this shenanigan to perfection. Midas is right. This latest fed action or TAF or whatever the hell, is extremely gold bullish.  However, I’m in Goldrunners camp and think the boyz, cartel, cretins, or whatever ya wanta call ‘em are in complete control. These are the guys we need to grab by the shirttails when gold and silver starts screaming up. They will lead the pack. All the best.—-aggie.

“When gossips’ talk and traitor’s scheming,
And jealous fiends on evil bent,
With basest vices unredeeming,
Brand the names of the innocent;

When hope’s bright sun seems nearly setting,
The future dim and cloudy lies,
And you mere tired of life are getting,
And tears of sorrow dim the eyes;

Cheer up, take courage, do not falter,
Truth will triumph by and by,
Time all evil things will alter,
Vice and wickedness must die.”

………Colfax Burgoyne Harman

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~

As I suspected, the C C I Index again closed at an All Time High today…………3rd day in a row. Soon enough, many more will wake up and know the TRUTH!

Goodnight, everyone.

JBI

I just can’t figure out how it all fits into the equation

Would just tell me what to do

So I can push the Easy Button

Thanks in advance

http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/outrage/wright.asp

 {which is close to the version posted).

Yes, especially when you only get four buy points over three years!

No matter when I buy, I know your 300DMA will show up sooner

or later.

Auric

It is easier said than done, isn’t it? I know what you mean.

It is GREED at TOPS and FEAR at BOTTOMS that causes the majority to loose out on opportunities the majority of the times. Controlling those emotions and acting in a contrary manner is very difficult for most, including yours truly, but it usually turns out to be much more profitable. We’ll just have to keep working at it, huh?

Best wishes!

JBI