Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Your post of the bit from Murphy’s site suggests that there is mystery afoot.  However, for over 30 years this has been studied and discussed.   The CB policy question of whether to repress the price of gold and thereby retain deep storage inventory for a later date is, for example, addressed in detail here

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1997/582/ifdp582.pdf

Note the curious terminology using the word ‘welfare’.  The specifics of this process are addressed in fairly voluminous literature, for example

http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v60y1993i237p1-11.html

which describes how monopolistic control of a non-renewable resource can be lost.  Antal Fekete has posted at Midas the process by which the fed avoids tax liability including funding economic studies.  By parceling these studies out they are capable of utilizing public institutions to do the studies supporting these projects and piece the results together into policy.  This is a simple factual matter and following the links in these articles and searching related topics will add more info.

This may well be the visable manifestations of the info presented at deepblacklies, a link to which was posted at the Tent a few nights ago.

Be careful.  Maybe this is ’it’, but we hope we’re not it - this game is for keeps.

But as an Aussie investor, all I can really offer is an Aussie perspective of the American economy, because of the overwhelming impact that the Yanks have on the Aussie one.   Almost every decision I make has a large element of what is happening over there.  Our economy is almost entirely commodity based and is thus dependent on a shortage of raw materials to maintain our exports and our miners’ profits.  What happens in America, being a major end user of our outputs, is clearly very important to us.

A few months ago, I was debating whether it would be deflation or inflation.  It seemed inevitable that the deflationary collapse would be upon us soon, and that govt. bonds or gold would be the answer.  The bonds are easier to store, and even pay interest, as well as having the potential for capital gain in a deflationary environment.  The actions of the US Treasury, the Fed and other central banks have recently made it clear that, by various means they will do their damnedest to inflate their way out of deflation by various bail-outs, favorable lending practices or whatever.  This allied to already existing price inflation (and, just to let the RBA in somewhere, the fact that Oz M3 has risen by 7.2% in the last three months {not annualised, that’s 7.2% in three months!}) has frightened me out of bonds.  Hard commodities are set up for a crash, and that will wreck our currency, especially with the monetary inflation.  But again, with the hard commodity crash being linked to the American consumer, we are looking to the US for data.  So with a collapsing currency the purchasing power of fixed interest would fall dramatically.

If you really want a perspective on Australia, it is that we have worked hard to achieve our current prosperity, that it is a great place to live and our financial success will last as long as there is a pound of nickel or a ton of iron ore in the ground.  In reality, our success is due to people bribing us with big salaries to get our butts onto those earthmovers.  We have no manufacturing industry to speak of (never had) and the rules and regulations make it prohibitively costly to set up any such factory.

I hope you are doing well.

Just want to thank you for your many inspirational and enjoyable posts over the past year.  Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a healthy and happy new year. 

Missing your posts lately and hope everything is working out for you. Glad you are at least staying tuned to this frequency.

Financial Times when he posted it at 10:09 on 13 Dec., but discovered now, as you did, that the whole article is not now accessible.  In any case, garlic’s article was referring to the Federal Home Loan Banks whereas your 21:35 posting was in reference to the Home Owners Loan Corp.  Both of them appear to be what I call socialistic vehicles.  If you are delving into this subject any further it is worth looking at garlic’s opening comments at 10:09 on 13 Dec. even if you cant access the entire FT article that he posted.  Best wishes.  Equiz.

From what little I have caught of the news, and postings under the Tent, I hope you are faring well, riding out the Winter Storm(s). If you have to open ‘MY Jar’ of plum jelly to make it through….I will understand. (grin)

Thinking of you and yours, Best, Farmboy

Agree this is not a time to sell if holding pm stocks. It’s too late for that anyway. If the urge strikes, as it always does at such times,I sit back and look at the long term, think of all the times I would have missed the rail up if I sold while feeling sick looking at my portfolio and review why I purchased the companies I did. Miining shares are like jets vs. prop planes-more comfortable, get you to your goal faster, more exciting when climbing-but the crashes are spectacular. I have to believe this time is no different, fundamentals are unchanged, and they will be released from the bindings of the handlers to soar again. I’m ready to pounce on GDX as soon as it looks like another move up is imminent..finger on trigger…locked, cocked and ready to rock.

IF you have my cell number handy, and can give me a call…? Would appreciate it.

Howdy to the rest of this Golden Bunch. You heard the saying of the one armed wall paper hanger? Well….that about describes the sit rep at this end. Been trying to keep up with all the postings, but having a hard time doing so. Sometimes, I have to drop back and try to catch up on several days worth of postings. (PHew).

Just hold the fort, keep the faith….BUYMORE! We all been…well most of us anyways,…been there, done this…all before. Gold up some 175 bucks and 28% on year over year. It aint so bad when you step back and take a view. I say, count up your ammo, and echo ole Irish with a ‘Charge!!!!’.

Sez ole Farmboy…..aint got no time to be ‘frettin’ things now. (Unless your a little light on the physical). Best to all, ….except the banksters. (grin)

Two fine posts. Mirror images of much of the info stated here,but in down to earth tone. Way to go.

I have no doubt that is the method behind the madness we witness with pain by the day.

There is simply no other rationale.  This is a war and I feel more vulnerable to the actions described in your post than in the past.  I don’t like the feeling one bit.  I concentrated on buying Canadian asset companies in order to avoid this possibility.  Seems as though any paper holding is subject to adultery…even if it represents solid management and proven mineral assets in the ground…ready for harvest.   Can only hope common law and common sense prevails…hopefully soon. 

If there are any doubters left in the manipulation of gold and their shares, they ought to be very few and far between. I am very much a novice and newcomer to this market. At times I have had a hard time believing that the rife manipulation presented by GATA could happen. However, with the fundamentals behind the pms, especially their shares, being so unmistakenly off the charts great, there is no doubt this market is manipulated to the inth degree. If there ever was a time to hang on, it’s now IMO. As the charts show over and over, times like these are most definitely great times to hang on or enter this market. The boyz aren’t doing anything unusual or out of character. They have pulled the plug like this on a regular basis only to take the market back up with a vengeance. I’ve never been more bullish on any of the investments I’ve ever made.  If you’re in…HOLD. If your out….Buy! As ment has tried to preach….think past minutes and hours. Think months and years. We’re fine here! All the best.—aggie.

I join you in hoping that the tent expands and has even more participation from all over the globe. The amount of info is staggering right now but more can be processed if we funnel it correctly. Humanoid had an idea a short while ago that I believe has merit. He wished to hire a wheelchair bound man who is brilliant in many disciplines and have him weed out the usefull info into categories and actually publish a report weekly or monthly for us for a small fee. Think it over.
On another note:
I like to keep my feelings about the tent simple. The quality of information is high. It is mostly brought forth without predjudice and without egotistcal motive. We have always been self policing and that in itself shows a high level of compassion and intelligence.
The most important thing in my mind is that I have NEVER met a forum or tent member in person that I didn’t wind up caring about.
Which brings up the communication aspect again. If we are to grow and develop we must never lose communication with one another. Because I have finally found something more precious than gold….and it is us.

I only disagree with Adrian in that I don’t think they will completely cover their shorts because they buy the PM stocks for the leverage for the upside move, then start shorting the paper gold to try to contain the rally at the next upper resistance level.  They make massive amounts of money on the leveraged advantage.  Then, they put out a “buy” on the PM stocks around the top, just like they put out a “sell” on Gold recently.  If memory serves, those bogus “buy” and “sell” calls are usually made about 3 weeks before the turn………rinse…….repeat.