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Robert Wetzler
still still still
weil’s Kindlein schlafen will!
Maria tut es niedersingen,
ihre keusche Brust darbringen.
Still,Still,Still,
weil’s Kindlein schlafen will!
I have no idea what I sang but it sounded ok. Haaaaaa
“Over the river and through the woods….”
but the Cabal is a godless bunch that never takes a day off when it appears there is an opportunity to make a few bucks. What better way to be “in your face” than to give us bugs the finger on Christmas?
We have to put our faith in someone and Ron Paul is the one I’ve chosen. I do like the fact that he is not an attorney, definitely an exception in Congress.
The reason I ask is that I read a couple of folks who had their reservations. Their theory being that he has been in Congress for a number of years, from Texas, home of Bush, Delay, etc. - the idea being he had to have known of the corruption, but was quiet? They also wondered why he hadn’t “named names” meaning directly outing those banksters that have perpetrated crimes against the country. Lastly, he is for the gold standard. The theory being that as the financial house of cards fail, he will be the one advocating a new gold backed Amero and ousting the Fed. The Fed being “expendible” to the financial powers. This would still allow the power to be in the same hands because the banksters own most of the world’s gold and gold mines. One of the guys said Paul is being set up in “textbook style” by the media elites to be the knight in “not so shiny” armor. Deliberately holding off until the right moment.
This is not something I choose to believe but it does not seem exactly out of the realm either. If RP had been a thorn in the beast for twenty years, it likely would have been very easy to remove him while he was still in relative obscurity. Not anymore.
Like I said, he has my vote and I want to believe that the system still has a chance to work. That being said, I’m always mindful of just how cunning, ruthless and brilliant the enemy is.
I hope RP is everything we believe, because if he is, we have a decent shot at real revolution to save the Republic.
Best BG
Merry Christmas to the Tent!!
Anyone else notice the unusual step-down pushes in the price of silver while Santa was delivering coal to some naughty boys last night? Evidence of when the naughty boys received their lumps of coal is on Kitco’s live silver chart. Action continued today. I thought the exchanges were all closed?
I guess the silver stallion had too much energy on Tuesday and needed to come into control. Can anyone explain how trades can take place when the market is closed?
GoldToe
….but I didnt think you could be humble for 20 minutes….
ok enough of this –i ’snapped out of it’ i did. bah humbug and aaarrrgghhhhhh. grizzle….! 
wj
Hmmm ,well I’ll be ..a soft an cuddly Wanka…hey no fair having a speech writer Wanks!
i wish one and all and your respective families close and distant a very merry christmas and offer my sincere gratitude for your presence at GT making this site truly what it is. your combined knoledge and understandings of subjects far and wide and scrutiny of the markets are untouchable by any other site i’ve seen and i personally thank you again one and all for your participation under the tent.
as i comfortably prepare to visit some friends households later this afternoon [lots-a-food today–oh boy!] who invited me for dinner since my wife is celibrating with our grandchildren her first christmas together with my son and his lovely wife in california i reminiss this first year 2007 of the tent and feel humbled [which sometimes humility is very hard for me being not of my nature] at the success of this site in a mere 10 months which could ‘not’ have been accomplished without the contributions of each and every one of you ‘Tenters’.
a hearty thank you to all and may santa shower you with your dreams and wishes in the coming year.
Merry Christmas GoldTent! wj
my ruminations on dec. 23 14:06 and 14:28 that peak oil may be a ruse to blame high oil prices on. Well the following adds to yhe speculation.
A CRUDE CONUNDRUM
BY ROB KIRBY
Over the past few weeks much has been written about the Bernanke led Federal Reserve and whether or not the Fed has been “ahead” of the game where monetary stimulus is concerned in an economy that is showing increasing signs of systemic stress.
I have even read articles claiming that money growth has in fact been stagnant for much of this year – from market analysts such as John Hussman - arguing that the Fed is perhaps “behind the curve” and generally only injects money into the system on a “temporary” [repo] basis:
“So it’s difficult to understand why investors would get all excited about the Fed temporarily buying up a few billion in government securities, when we’ve got a Federal government that’s simultaneously and permanently issuing and then constantly rolling over many, many times that amount. It‘s an escape into dreamland to believe that Fed actions have any chance at all of providing more “liquidity” when the Federal government’s deficits suck up in a matter of weeks every bit of liquidity that the Fed has provided in a year. These Fed actions are nothing but marginal tinkering around the edges of the global financial system, and investors are starting to catch on.“
For a minute now, let’s just put “what the Fed does” aside.
Instead of viewing money creation from a “temporary-Fed-can-do” perspective, I’d like everyone to consider money creation from an oil centric perspective:
If we discount recent developments in Iran whereby Iran now settles their trade in crude oil in currency other than dollars; we can empirically see that a rising crude oil price is in fact synonymous with U.S. Dollar support and fiat money creation. Remember folks, 4.25 billion in “newly discovered fiat per day” amounts to an annual run rate of 1.551 Trillion in incremental “new” money growth versus two years ago.
Amazing how this “new money” being created amounts to [more or less] roughly the same stipend required to fund a war in the Middle East and America’s burgeoning trade deficit.
It must be a coincidence, ehh?
Today’s Market
Overseas equities were in good holiday spirits with Japan’s Nikkei Index ahead by 225 to 15,257. North American markets also rejoiced with the DOW up 98.7 to 13,549.30, the NASDAQ advancing 21.51 to 2,713.50 and the S & P gaining 12.00 to 1,496.45. NYMEX crude oil futures added .76 to finish up at 94.07 per barrel.
Interest rates were little changed with the 5 yr. bond ending the day at 3.64 % and the 10 yr. finishing at 4.24 %.
On foreign exchange markets the U.S. Dollar Index fell .06 to 77.59.
Precious metals ended the day the day mixed with COMEX gold futures ahead .50 to 813.00 while COMEX silver futures added .18 to 14.57. The XAU Index gained .99 to 168.95 while the HUI lost 1.82 to 396.73.
On tap for tomorrow is Christmas! Have a good-one!
Rob Kirby
..Best to you and Farmgal…..
Wistar Holt - Client Letter December 24, 2007
Dear Clients,
Webster’s Dictionary defines the word “counterintuitive” as “contrary to what intuition or common sense would indicate.” Let’s see if this word applies to the recent activity in the price of gold.
Since gold is universally and historically recognized as an inflation hedge or barometer, when the U.S. Labor Dept. reported on December 13, 2007 that wholesale prices (PPI) rose 3.2% in the month of November (the largest increase since 1973), one would logically assume that the price of gold might climb that day. Following that statistic, the very next day (Dec. 14), the Labor Dept. reported that consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.8% in November, the largest increase in over two years. Now, let’s illustrate the price action of gold on those two gold-supportive trading days:
Surprisingly, not only did gold decline both of those days, but if you focus on the timing of those inflation reports (8:30a.m. EDT), you will notice that gold fell almost immediately after the bullish reports. Also peculiar is the sharp decline on Dec.13 from $810/oz to $793/oz. in merely three hours following a very stable 24 hour period. Facetiously, I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why the seller(s) were in such a hurry to dump their gold? If you’re going to sell it, why not dish it out gradually in order to obtain higher prices for it? More importantly, with a major ramp up in inflation, why sell it at all? Perhaps if we dig a little deeper, we can answer those questions.
Gold also happens to be internationally recognized as a leading indicator of economic stress in financial markets. We often refer to it as “the canary in the mine” of duress in the marketplace. Since trading at $845/oz. on November 7, 2007, gold has declined to $794/oz. on December 20, 2007. Let’s see if our economic “stress indicator” once again performs counterintuitively as we patiently examine these headlines littered across a spectrum of global financial publications (chronological):
Dollar Losing Global Currency Status—People’s Bank of China Official
GM Posts Record Loss after $39B Charge—Reuters
NY Subpoenas Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Mortgage Probe—Reuters
U.S. Banks Face $100B of Writedowns on Level 3 Rule—Bloomberg
11/7/07
U.S. Faces Risks of Downturn, Inflation: Bernanke—MarketWatch
National Debt at Record $9Trillion—AP 11/8
U.S. Consumer Morale Hits 2-Year Low in Nov.—IBD Poll
Mortgage Loan Losses Pose Risk of Systemic Shock—Morgan Stanley
11/13
Gold Q3 Demand Up 19% on Investment Buying—World Gold Council
Government Funds Reported Buying Gold to Hedge Dollar’s Decline—F.Times 11/14
G.E. Fund Latest Victim of Subprime, Mortgages Losses—CNBC
Barrick Says Gold Supply to Fall Faster than Expected—Bloomberg 11/15
U.S. Could Face $2Trillion Lending Shock—Goldman Sachs
Wells Fargo: Housing Worst Since Great Depression—Reuters 11/16
U.S. Thrift Earnings Plunge 84% in 3Q—Reuters
Credit, Economy Woes Sink Investor Confidence—State Street 11/20
U. of Mich. Nov. Final Sentiment Index Falls to 2-Year Low—
Reuters U.S. Leading Index Growth Rate at a 63-Week Low—ECRI
U.S. Mortgage-Related Losses Likely Up to $300B—OECD 11/21
Fortis’ Gerhard Schubert Sees Gold Climbing to $1,500 in 2008—Bloomberg 11/23
Foreign Central Banks Net Sellers of U.S. Debt—Fed
Gold Demand Up 13% in MidEast—World Gold Council
Citicorp Planning Major Job Cuts—Reuters 11/26
U.S. Nov. Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year Low—Conf. Bd.
U.S. Quarterly Home Price Drop Largest on Record—S&P
Holiday Sales Miss Forecasts with Discounts in Demand—Bloomberg
11/27
Florida School Fund Rocked by $8B Pullout Amid Defaults—Bloomberg 11/28
Sears Profit Plunges 99%–Reuters
U.S. Home Foreclosures Soar 94% Yr/Yr—Realty Trac 11/29
Russia’s Kudrin: Gold Reserves to Grow $150B in 2007
Bernanke: Financial Strains Dimming U.S. Outlook—Reuters
Arab Monetary Fund Urges Gulf to Drop Dollar Pegs—Reuters
U.S. Leading Index Growth Rate Hits 4.5-Yr. Low—ECRI 11/30
U.S. Q3 Home Prices Drop Biggest in 25 Years—Freddie Mac 12/4
The dollar’s Perfect Storm Worsens—MSN Money
U.S. Worker Sentiment Index Hits Record Low in Nov.—Reuters
U.S. Job Cuts Jumped 16% in Nov.—Challenger
Pimco’s Gross Says Fed May Have to Cut Rates Below 3%–Bloomberg 12/5
U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Reach Record High—Reuters
Sixty-One Economists Sign Letter Opposing Subprime Bailout—Bus. Wire 12/6
Philly Fed Survey—U.S. 1st Half 2008 Growth to Slow—Reuters
UBS Writes Down $10B, Singapore Injects Capital—Reuters
Societe Generale Takes on $4.3B of SIV Assets—Bloomberg
Iran Stops Using Dollar for Oil Transactions—Bloomberg 12/10
German Investor Confidence Fell to 15-Year Low—ZEW
Freddie Mac Sees $5.5B-$12B More Losses—AP
Buffet Says SIV Plan Won’t Solve Crisis—CNBC 12/11
S. African Gold Output Falls 5.8% Yr/Yr in Oct.—GMT
U.S. Trade Gap Widens in Oct. to $57.8B—Reuters
U.S. Foreclosures Up 31.8% in Nov. from Previous Month—MarketWatch
Greenspan: Subprime “Accident Waiting to Happen”—Reuters
Gold Glitters in the Eyes of Russia’s Billionaires—GMT
U.S. Earnings: 3Q Results Down 4.6% vs 2006—D. Jones 12/12
U.S. Producer Prices Soar 3.2% in November—Reuters 12/13
U.S. November CPI Up 0.8%–Reuters
Citigroup to Bailout Seven SIV’s for $49B—AP
Eurozone Inflation Hits 6-Year High—Fin. Times
Money-Market Rates Fail to Respond to Bank Measures—Bloomberg
U.S. Leading Index Growth Hits 5-Year Low—ECRI
12/14
Greenspan Sees Early Signs of U.S. Stagflation—Reuters
U.S. December Home Builder Sentiment Holds at Record Low—Reuters
Schwarzenegger Will ‘Declare Fiscal Emergency’ in Weeks—NBC
Lehman Faces Legal Threat Over CDO Deals—Fin. Times
ECB Offers Unlimited Funds at Below Market Rates—Fin. Times
Apparel Chains See Slow Holiday Growth—Reuters 12/17
Global Investors Confidence at All Time Low—State Street
UK Government Extends Northern Rock Protection—MarketWatch
Single-Family Homes New Construction Weakest in 16 Years—MarketWatch
MBIA Slumps on Concern about CDO Exposure—MarketWatch
AMBAC, MBIA and Rivals May Lose AAA Ratings—S&P 12/18
Morgan Stanley Sells Stake to China Amidst Losses—Reuters 12/19
The Due Diligence Derby: Barclays Sues Bear Stearns—Reuters
MBIA Bond Risk Soars on $8.1B CDO Disclosures—Bloomberg
Philly Fed Factory Activity Plunges in December—Reuters
SunTrust Invests $1.4B to Protect Money Funds—Bloomberg
U.S. Commercial Paper in Biggest Weekly Drop Since Aug.—Reuters
CIBC May Take $2B Writedown on ACA Downgrade—Bloomberg
Anglogold to Close Gold Hedge Book—Alliance Bus. Publ. 12/20
After digesting these headlines, one might conclude that the U.S. and much of the world may be on the verge of a serious economic crisis. There is little an objective, astute financial prognosticator can argue with. What’s scary is that the economic crisis is worsening, yet gold declined $51/oz. during this 6 week period. Furthermore, the DJIA was essentially “flat” during this time. Webster’s Dictionary associates the phrase “free market” with, “a market economy based on supply and demand with little or no government control.” In a free market, amidst the current environment, I would say that the odds of a decline in the price of gold, as well as a stable U.S. stock market, are zero! Clearly, this price action is not representative of a free market.
The U.S. government’s intervention in the gold market has been documented for years by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). Most recently, GATA has hired attorney and constitutional scholar, Edwin Vieira, author of “Pieces of Eight: The Monetary Powers and Disabilities of the United States Constitution.” Vieira is advising GATA on their efforts to ascertain the government’s involvement in the gold market through the Freedom of Information Act.
Why is it important for the government to suppress or “cap” the gold price? It gets back to my earlier point– gold is the leading barometer of economic stress. By temporarily thwarting an otherwise soaring gold price, the government and Wall Street can project an artificial image of “calmness” in the marketplace while they attempt to extinguish the subprime mortgage blazes. “Temporarily” is a key adjective; gold will eventually trade freely because the imbalance of supply and demand of physical gold will overwhelm the manipulation. After all, the central and bullion banks have suppressed the gold market for years, yet the price has climbed from $255/oz. to $800/oz. during this bull market. As we move forward, patience will prevail.
The U.S. government’s involvement in the stock market is probably conducted through Secretary-Treasurer Paulson’s “pet,” The Working Group on Financial Markets, aka “The Plunge Team.” Here, the government’s intervention is even more critical than with gold, for if the stock market was “allowed” to fall, it would collapse the final pillar in this financial house of cards. I’m sure it is conveniently rationalized by the powers that be as “economic survival” for the good of the country. Nonetheless, like gold, the stock market will ultimately trade free of government manipulation and these two asset classes will once again return to their role as leading indictors of economic conditions.
With significant risks in the stock, bond, and real estate markets, as well as the U.S. dollar, I believe that 2008 will be the initial year in which U.S. investors finally join many foreigners and collectively discover the merit of gold and silver investments. As the financial stress worsens, investors are likely to abandon traditional asset classes and reallocate capital into gold and silver with their unique risk-averse hedging properties. Being a relatively small asset class, it won’t take much capital to drive prices sharply higher. This should provide an excellent backdrop to our mining stock portfolio next year.
Happy Holidays!
Wistar W. Holt
ron paul and tom coburn (a senator from oklahoma, and also an m.d.) are leopards whos spots aren’t going to change. they know that their base support will abandon them in a heartbeat for only a small change in their policy. it’s ironic that most of our elected officials in washington are attorneys, but the two dr. no’s are gaining support by leaps and bounds from the far left and the far right. the media has a vested interest in supporting big government, something ron paul is adamently against. i think the last thing you have to worry about is ron paul changing.
rno
