Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

………..the last ten trading days

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JBI

“Why do we end with a question mark? This has been the lament of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen at the slightest hint that the US is purposely allowing the dollar to fall against other currencies which would not be well received by other countries investing in our Government bonds. The question mark is there because we are questioning if this is true then haven’t the policies of the US over the past several years been an unmitigated disaster for our future? If a strong dollar is in our best interests then it must follow that we are really screwed. It is getting to be more and more visible to more and more people that that is exactly the case. All of the ridiculous under-reporting of inflation, the fabricated strong economic reports, all the plays on words to avoid stating the reality of the situation are coming home to roost. Foreigners are increasingly not accepting dollars; even some of the oil producing countries are turning their heads away from the dollar. The ridiculously incompetent plan Paulsen spoke up for to bail out subprime borrowers which was really about bailing out the banks which were “still dancing” as Chuck Prince said did insure one thing; that instead of very, very few buyers of subprime debt there would be no future buyers of subprime debt. Why would anyone be stupid enough to buy something that could have the payment stream adjusted to their detriment while it was already risky enough on its own merits? We are truly seeing the Keystone Cops in action. One of the latest schemes to keep the feel good society in tact involves doing repos as long as 43 days of total garbage paper to get it off the books of the banks for the year end dog and pony show.

The producer price index recently hit a 34 year high, the CRB index hit an all time high, M3 money supply in the US is now up to +15.3%, yet most investors are only mildly worried about inflation or not at all. Central banks have injected over a $1 trillion since August 9th. If you do any shopping in the supermarket or pay any bills at all you will know that inflation is already far out of control even if you are economically illiterate. Yet people still believe the Government’s version of inflation. My water bill is what my electric bill was a few years ago and my electric bill is what my rent used to be. I don’t think the average American will grasp the severity of the situation until they are literally starving and because of all the statistical deception and misplaced trust our people will be the last to move to protect themselves - a true tragedy. Foreigners already shun the US dollar and are trading them in for real money - gold, especially in China. India, Russia, and the Middle East. Eight of the ten richest men in Russia are heavy accumulators of gold. Meanwhile, South Africa and Australia are still reporting declining gold production. How have we managed to fill the gap when production is dropping yet demand has been soaring? Perhaps some of the less sharp buyers are accepting promises of gold in the future rather than gold. They will end up with broken promises while the buyers of gold in their possession will reap the rewards of the price that will soar higher than thought possible when it is discovered that the promised gold will not be fulfilled. Even gold suppressor extraordinaire, Barrick Gold has stated that mine supply is going to fall much faster than is believed.

It is ever more impressive that gold is in the $800’s even with all the high level efforts to undercut its price to keep it from reaching free market levels that would sound the alarms that the financial system is completely unsound. Commercial shorting on the Comex has been unrelenting and unprecedented and it seems the commercials are on the verge of getting run over. The Bank for International Settlements reported total gold derivatives are now over $1 trillion which is equivalent to a third of all the gold ever mined. One piece of advice - know your counter party!

2007 has been a disappointing year in regards to the leverage that gold stocks have provided relative to the gold price, in fact it has been negative. 2008 will go down as the year when that leverage returns in a big way. 2008 will be the year it is discovered why mining costs were going up faster than the gold price; why gold went down when super bullish news or events should cause it to go up; that reason being it was artificially suppressed.

I think what I regard as the quote of the year as far as gold goes explains it best. Rob Kirby stated, “Isn’t it amazing how we can have a four billion negative miss on the Trade report, import prices higher than expected (inflationary), zero reaction in the bond market, gold getting pummeled and the US dollar going higher? I better not drop my coffee cup in amazement - it might fall up!”

Buy gold, silver, and the related stocks and buy them now!

Richard J. Greene
3 January 2008
Clearwater, Florida
www.thundercapital.com

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JBI

13,223,300……………………….

more clearly than I could have.  You made some excellent points, and I appreciate your perspectives on China’s resource interests in various locations in the world.  I got out of Iamgold because of my doubts about the portion of their operations that are Africa-based.  We currently hold some Great Basin Gold because of their Nevada interests, but I would be happier and more confident if they didnt have a mining  interest in Africa.  We were formerly shareholders of Tan Range, but hold no TRE at present.

I always take note of your carefully considered comments.  Best wishes for 2008.

Sounds like you have endless wonderful memories from your flying.  Low and slow is the best.

You’re right about the safety of the plane, but surely you’re aware of the deadly ‘moose stall’ that SuperCubs are prone to, yes???  Ya know, the thing that happens when the pilot banks the plane up to just about standing on a wingtip and says to the passenger, “Hey, check out that moose”, just before the plane falls to the ground!

Today in Bend, Oregon we had the biggest group of supporters ever (27) and hundreds upon hundreds of positive responses from the passersby during the three hours we were out there.  Also got on the news of two of the local TV channels and an interview on one of the radio stations.  Might be in the papers.  The percentage and strength of positive responses is growing, no doubt helped by the national exposure for Dr Paul along with our local effort.  You’re welcome to join us Auric1.  Good luck with your efforts silver_rider, just keep at it.  Next week we’ll probably have a bar-b-que and invite passersby to join us, to give an opportunity for some one-on-one campaigning and hopefully get more people involved.

Did anyone see the Bill Moyers interview of Ron Paul yesterday?

There are several very well run Aussie miners with projects in Africa.  I have avoided them because of the political risk.  Kenya was probably the most long term stable African country until recently.  Things change quickly in the African political scene and Tanzania’s democracy is comparatively new.  There is also the potential problem of when the Tanzanians took over Zanzibar, which is a Muslim island.  If the extremists wanted an excuse to target a specific country they would have it with Zanzibar.

Specifically with TRE, I would be a bit concerned because JS is very well in with the current government.  Whilst this is an excellent method of ensuring that you can get things done, should the govt. change there can often be a backlash against those who could be seen as supporters of the ousted one.  There is an oiler in Mauretania I won’t touch for the same reason - the company’s main asset is pretty much the Chairman’s relationship with the President and the value of the concessions would be dubious should the President change.

Of course JS will say that the situation in Tanzania is stable - and it probably is, at the moment and could be for decades.  JS is a gold man, he has to go where the gold is and negotiate the terms necessary to profit from it. 

Now, who would benefit from a destabilised African state?  The Chinese are all over Africa like a rash, building infrastructure and buying up mining concessions.  They are less scrupulous than Western companies have to be in the way they conduct business.  I would bet my bottom dollar that they are well involved in the Kenyan situation (not necessarily the instigators, but there looking to profit from it) and will be looking closely at the South American situations where socialists are changing the tax regimes to get the Gringoes out.  We have seen what a drag that has been on the shares of mining cos. with interests in Venezuela and Columbia.  The Chinese are not interested in making a profit from the mining so much as having the raw materials to add value to. 

Sovereign risk is a very real risk factor to take into account, IMO.  If there is an equivalent opportunity in a safe country then why take the additional risk?

Yes downtown is where three roads come together!   Actually I don’t remember much of a central district per se

brought back great memories for me. That is the safest airplane ever built - it will go just barely fast enough to kill you, 115 mph. I loved mine, flew from my hay meadow to the various drilling rigs and landed on lease roads or in farmers horse pastures, had large wheels so I could land on very rough terrain. Flew to Oshkosh and Florida  many times. Great fun flying the beach from Mobile to florida at 50 feet or so. Loaded light it would fly at 35 MPH and with a moderate head wind - land in a 100 feet or so. You wouldn’t believe my pictures - kept an auto camera handy for one handed shots of deer, alligators, train wrecks, forest fires, coyotoes, well blowouts and rigs burning etc from a bird’s eye view..

(Alfalfa) another oil story for you at IMDB under Energy. I will tell a couple of more interesting well blowout stories next!  Deadeye

Don’t have much to say around here but read it all.   I agree with Fullgoldcrown,   good story,   delivery stink.

…..we may need the whole Page….

….I think I more belong in the Gold Cheerleader Category…YaHUI

At 21:44, 2 Jan 08, I posted the following on Goldtent “Geopolitical unrest in Kenya in the news these days.  Unrest in Nigeria too.  Tanzania next?  Maybe only JS knows the level of stability in Tanzania.  We shall see.”

Understandably, no one on Goldtent responded to this provocative question.  In an e-mail from the ‘Chairman’s Corner’, dated  5 Dec 08, Mr. Sinclair stated that “The situation in Kenya has been making headlines lately, prompting questions from many of you regarding its potential impact on Tanzania.  I want to state without reservation that the situation in nearby Kenya presents no problem whatsoever to the Republic of Tanzania which has a long history of stable, democratic government”.  Mr. Sinclair’s optimistic  comments continued on for two more paragraphs, which I will not reproduce here.  I notice that these Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation ‘Chairman’s Corner’ comments have not yet been displayed on jsmineset, unless I missed finding them there.

When el Quada and others are involved in political unrest in various locations where western interests are involved, I have trouble believing Mr. Sinclair’s optimism about Tanzanian immunity.  But I do respect the need for the CEO to have confidence in the financial commitments he has placed in his own  tranches for TRE and for the shareholder commitments to TRE.  Despite my respect and understanding for the CEO’s position, I reserve judgement about the political stabilty of Tanzania.   Equiz.

Spent the day going door to door for RP in Birmingham.  Saw a lot of HUD houses empty.  Some with the door open and vacant.   We went to several hundred homes and left literature.  We were searching for recruits as well as diseminating info.  I was disappointed that we did not find anyone on fire for Ron Paul.  Several said they would vote for him but none would take a yard sign or work for him.  We have a long road and a short time to transverse.

What about Aden, Dorsch, Gnazzo…..Turk ….etc

Kirby…..you.

Auric

there’s a lot…i mean a whole lot of pro ron paul comments being tossed around facebook after the debates tonight.

almost all candidate specific comments have been negative with the exception of RP. all, meaning every one that i’ve seen thus far, that speaks about ron paul has been very positive.

encouraging to say the least. seems that perhaps some of the people in my generation and the one below me have some sense after all.