Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Well, I still am kinda surpised about the votes for Vancouver (paradise or not) ..Guess we could all take a ferry over  for some horsetail brew eh?   Kidding  

Ya never know what is around the next bend but based on my experience it is usually worth the journey.

Belize is from New York.  But a read of a couple of the articles on jsmineset tonight gives some hints of what could hit us over the head at any time.  Just paranoid self thinking out loud here over the keyboard.  Best wishes.  Equiz

 Oh no! 

I do agree that it is most important that the monoline insurance companies get assisted and don’t go bankrupt.  That was apparent in the market action.

But, also what would have happened if Bernanke hadn’t cut interest rates substantially?  It certainly wasn’t the cure-all that’s for sure but what would have happened if he hadn’t made any cut?  It would have been a disaster.  Lowering the cost of funds to the banks should improve their profitability and lower costs to borrowers including mortgage loans.  I don’t have alot of condidence that disaster will be avoided without massive Fed injections but lowering interest rates does help.

The fact that saving the bond insurers may be of utmost importance doesn’t mean that lowering interest rates is not important as well.

Cheers, ipso

I have really been kind of insulated from day to day hands on feelings about what is transpiring in NY. Is this stuff deteriorating underneath us worse than 2 weeks ago?

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2536805820080125?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Well, if those noses are legal beagles….??LOL

What I aint no longer got…I aint got. Seems simple enough to me. And if some dont likes it….well…sue me…in Belize! Seems I heard once,…dont know if it’s even true…but cant get blood out of a turnip. Leastways, what I heard. And starting over, from scratch….well, seem I done been down that trail…once or twice. (grin)

Life. Ya just never know what’s around the next bend, Farmboy

posters may have as to which unfolding circumstance might have the biggest positive effect upon the price of gold - the introduction of U.S. troops into Pakistan, or the unvarnished reporting of an outright financial failure of one or more New York-based banking firms.  I say unvarnished, because I expect the first accounts of any failure of a major financial institution will initially be sugar-coated before the truth comes out.  Equiz

Ahhh what is it about U.S 20 that is getting in the way.hmmmmm..Comon now

Well, since I see you are still up. Did catch your post the other night where you hoisted a cold one to RNO and me. A word of thanks. (Not that it really matters that RNO and me are still North, and freezing our tails off…lololol)

But thanks….one of my favorite memories, was a night in Paradise,….warm too….(grin), and I asked one waiter to bring a bowl of ice to our dinner table, and we both toasted RNO. What are friends for anyways…?? (grin)

Carry on with the mission. And oh yeah General….”Hold the LIne!”

Best, Farmboy. (I wont easily admit this in public…but I am proud of you)

And there you are with wires and poles xmitters and electric conch’s bringing up the rear. Just got handed a fresh poll done by and independent polling outfit…PUP 42% ..UDP 51%..other 8%..Comon chairman keep it going …we have an army of the smartest nicest people in the world ready to decend on yer little place in the sun. I finnish 2 or three things and 3 more pop up but there fallin quicker and easier every day…….Gnite Fran

But will it pass the sniff test?

This Image Top Secret Homeland Security High Technology Bomb Sniffer Department — not to be divulged to public– or you might get goosed

I think that Bernanke and the Fed should not have cut rates by .75 on Tuesday.  The problem is not that rates are too high, the problem is that none of the banks want to lend to any of the other banks because they do not know how much toxic waste they hold.   Banks need to hold on to all the cash they can get there hands on so that they have enough money on hand to cover their own problems. 

In my opinion, the problem is the monoline insurace companies like ABK and MBI.  The down grade last Thursday of ABK by Fitch scared the hell out of not only US markets but markets around the world.  We saw what happened, the Dow tanked on Thursday, down again a little on Friday and then S&P/Moodies said they were also looking at downgrading ABK and MBI the slaughter was on Sunday night in Asia/Australia.  Spreads to Europe on Monday and back to Asia on Monday night with hugh loses, open in Europe with markets down strong before the Fed cuts 10 minutes before the NY open.   Market opens down 450 on Tuesday, rallies and finishes down over 100 with a .75 rate cut.  Wednesday the markets fall again down 300 pts in the morning before news circulates at around 12 est that NY insurance head has called a meeting about bailing out ABK and MBI.  The DOW took off to the upside and finished with almost a 300 pt gain - a 600 pt swing AFTER the news that something was being done about the monolines.  What did the .75 accomplish?  Nothing.  What did the possibility of dealing with the ABK and MBI mess accomplish?  A 600pt moonshot!  Thursday was another 100 pts up.  Then today, when word started circulating around 10am that the banks were balking at bailing out ABK and MBI and the NY insurance guy says it might take a couple of weeks to put a deal together, the Dow went from up 100+ to down 170 by the close.   The financials went from being up big to down 163pts on the day.  After the .75 rate cut the 10 yr rates went to 3.22 I believe it was - where are they today?  I believe they closed at 3.62  AFTER a .75 rate cut.  The rate cut accomplished NOTHING and whatever they cut next week will accomplish NOTHING in my opinion. 

Banks, hedge funds and pension funds all stand to lose in excess of 160 BILLION if ABK and MBI just get downgraded to AA from AAA.  Or at least that is the number I saw in an article somewhere today.  The loses IF they go bankrupt would be nearer 600 billion.  THAT is what the markets are worried about in my opinion and unless Moodys/S&P says they are not going to cut the rating or somebody comes in and buys ABK or MBI or both, the DOW is probably going back to test the recent lows.  Of course this is all just my opinion formed from what I have seen happen in the last week and had the opportunity to read in different articles. 

I think we are on the edge of a total financial meltdown, that will only be saved by a bailout of ABK and MBI.  No bailout and we all better buckle up.   NOW, aren’t you sorry you asked? 

I finally have a little downtime. I start reading posts an run into yours and farmy’s first.
Tell you what. I am darn glad to have you on this advance team. Just the way you walked through the thought process of the land and the Ron Paul signs shows the way your mind works.
Farmy, no matter what you are going through your still the same solid sob I first met. Were gonna make it pal …we are going to make it. ….Gnite Fran