Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

If you are still awake give me a call…

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 Later,

Dr. J

I believe the question was,”What is the difference in value?”  I believe you answered with what is the difference in safety?  Would you answer the  same way if I had used oil as the product?  Yes, you are fighting the Fed with the Precious Metals, but Jesse Livermore said, “Get right and hold tight”, not to run like a striped arse ape up a tree.  It is always easiest to blame somebody else like a bunch of kids on the playground, but it is really the lack of knowledge on the part of investors that is the biggest problem in PM land if you ask me………..along with the fact that PM investors become very easy marks when they jump heavily into leverage.  And, yes, investing in explorers is definitely a jump into heavy leverage, BTW.

Those who elect to invest purely in physical Gold and Silver will never consider anything else, IMO, just take Walker as an example.  Yet, other PM investors have different sets of wants and needs that need to be satisfied.  Some, in fact, have a more moderate opinion of the terms of risk that you hold dear.  Even others might feel that if there is ultimate risk in the PM’s, it might take the form of physical confiscation while the large mining entities are left mostly alone.  Me?  I just try to see all of the arguments, then weigh the risk/ reward scenarios for my own personal objectives.

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PMFEVER @ 21:38 pm

by Maya @ 23:23 pm.

Physical in-hand, versus a mining company with ‘assets in-ground’… what’s the difference in value?   That’s an easy one.  The difference is the layer of  paper that can be easily manipulated that resides between the investor’s money… and those assets ‘in-ground’.  And that includes shady management, brokers, banksters, plunge protection teams, the depository trust corp…. need I continue?

Today I tossed the dogs out of my portfolio (sure mark of a bottom) and bought as close to physical as I could get in my paper IRA account.  I bought CEF.  I sure hope you are right about the silvers about to take off.  I still hold a couple good silver juniors… producers.   With the floor sweepings in my account, I’m thinking of putting he last nickels into CALVF for a lottery ticket.   But I’m getting really disgusted with the paper games.   Mark my sentiment indicator for a bottom…. I hope.

weights of physical silver holdings.  The message I take from your note is that it could be useful to have a range of weights in one’s possession, not just the sizes that now are the cheapest cost per ounce to purchase.    Thanks, and best wishes.  Equiz.

tahats fishin woords mon! wj

mid april at least. wj

I think that was the best nutshell presentation I’ve seen.  I’m sharing it.

If you want to stay with this course of dialogue, I think it would be most worthwhile because IMO, it gets straight to the heart of the matter of what will be the driving forces for the PM sector going forward (as it has been in the past), but we need to get into each of the subcomponents that have been mentioned to see what is, and what is not…..what will be considered important weeks and months from now, versus now, and versus 4 years from now.  I certainly believe that you have laid heavy spin on certain parts that you wrote, below.  That spin is the psychology that is prevalent in the market, today.  To invest, we need to consider the prevalent psychology of tomorrow.   If you simply want to argue isolated items that will become meaningless, then I am not the least bit interested.

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“PMF @ 21:14 pm

by soee @ 22:59 pm.

What reserves in the ground on these small caps?  Most of the small mining/exploration companies have little or no reserves right now.  If they have reserves, then they may not be economically feasible right now.  Sure they will be attractive down the road to bigger miners as the gold price rises, but right now these aquirers can’t get the financing in place to get the deal done unless it’s an all stock deal.  The bottom line is that these small caps require significant cash outlays (working capital) to get up and running.  They need hard currency (or bank credit) to expand property, plant, equipment and pay for exploration costs.  These start-up costs are a black hole and financing is currently cut-off.  Fear has gripped the credit market.”

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“Dig a hole is relative concept of the mind.” In fact, what you see as 7/8 empty, I see as 7/8 full.   In fact, you are trading the Dow fractal relationship on the downside that I had laid out, long ago.  Those trading the Gold and Silver futures are trading the upside fractal move I had laid out, long ago.  The only point of contention will be the HUI portion of the fractal work that went from just ridiculously too perfect, back to a period of what “cycle work” will usually do.

i can spell ‘amero’….spelled f-a-s-h-i-s-m ! wj

Sweet dreams

montyhigh.typepad.com/world_of_wallstreet/2008/02/scariest-chart.html

keep um happening. i havent heard gun shots yet on the radio so no worry all is well. a little vote pranksterism from pup no sweat. [g] wj

I took a subscription so I could see and post them here..the Proprieter is a guy named Merv Burak………………………..observations ?

Mervs Gambling Gold Index

gamb-gold.pdf

Mervs Speculative Gold Index

spec-gold.pdf

Mervs Quality Gold Index

qual-gold.pdf

My observations…..
1….In the Gambling Index..note the run up in 05 06 ..(which start about may 05 in the HUI)..started Jan 06 and ran for only 5 months for this Index…it more than doubled in that time frame ( Jan to May06)…
..Presently we have a quadruple top in place but higher lows…(a flat toped triangle…)

2…the Speculative Index…..(I own about half of these.)…looks like one of Rambus Consolidation patterns
….actually looks very strong and promising

3….the Quality Index..started its previous big run is May 05..and was half way thru the run by Jan 06 when the Gambling index actually started to move…the Gambling index started its run 8 months after the Quality Index started to run…..Now in this present run…the Quality Index started to go in August 07….this was 5 months ago…so we may still have 2 or 3 months to go before the Gambling Golds start to run

…..In summary..
……the Majors have been rallying for about 5 months now..
…….In the 05-06 run the majors ran about 8 months before the Gambling Golds started to go..and at that point the Majors were about half way thru the move..
…….If the same scenario repeats..we have another 2 to 3 months before the Gambling Golds (and Speculative Golds start to run…..(March-April)
……in the 05-06 run all Indices Topped at the same approximate time..13 months after the majors started to move…which would be equivalent to August 08….

…again if the scenario replays…our Juniors and Micros would move over 100% from March-April to August….

…..thse scenarios agree with Rambus Halfway pattern work..and Goldrunners Fractal work….

…I wish these indices went back 8 years…I have emailed Merv Burak to see if he has that info..no reply yet..FGC

..

i have a propritory method. now keep this a very quiet secret between just us.wj

Last night you were pondering the type or form  of silver one should purchase , If you don’t mind; I’ve always felt the rounds would be good to have for later distribution to all the frenzied joe six pack that just have to have some silver– The Eagles would be for the more sceptical that needed better identification of what they were getting in payment for — groceries, appliances, medical bills — The 10 oz  bars will be for auto purchases, major home remodels, vacations to Tottenham Ontario and the Bricks will be saved for major land purchase & to distribute to my children..

Where is this fractal of yours?  I want to see it.  Please post.

I’ve have always been told:  When you find yourself deep in the hole, STOP DIGGING MAN!!!

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or is it true that the “point of recognition has just been delayed this time due to psychological factors that are irrational at this time?