Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Friday evening the item on the truck that rolled off the highway near Kamloops, British Columbia, dumping a lot of freshly-minted coins into the ditch.  I wondered if ‘its_real’ was on the scene prospecting the ditch, as he lives closer to the scene of this dump than I do.  I’m always on the lookout for fresh new coins dumped in the ditch but so far I have not increased our family assets with this approach.

Regarding your 21:49 posting , containing a  viewpoint from BullionMarketInsights, I find their mention of a near-future price of gold at 3200 and silver at 120 more pleasant to contemplate than the $961 /ounce ( plus or minus $15) that SOEE and PMFever were tossing around this evening.  I think you said once, “Whose TA?”.

As many gurus say,  “We shall see”,  and on that point I accept the prediction of gurus.

Best wishes.  Equiz.

12-10-2007.    That is the entire post - that I posted but that is the date!  Have a good evening,  I need my beauty rest in order to fight the CROOKS tomorrow. 

do you have date on sinclairs post

I don’t want to argue about it, but it appears your hypothesis is based solely on people’s confidence in paper money.  I believe it fails to adequately incorporate disinflation/inflation/real rates of return - into the mix.  It’s just my opinion — and i have the right to be wrong.  been wrong plenty of times.  <g>

Thank you for digging that item up…you are exactly correct.  That was the source of my “note”.

It’s based upon ST rates falling.  Real rates may be negative now, but I seriously doubt it if we enter into a recession.  It’s just my WAG ya know.  Everybody has to have their own gameplan or roadmap.  Buy and hold is also a plan.

here is a site i keep for some reference on the melt value of various u.s. coinage including our long lost silver moneys. [scroll down and its updated daily on the close]
www.coinflation.com/
perhaps the replacement for a metal penny is a paper stamp sized penny reciept? i wonder what the cost:life ratio would be? naaa goober never do it, makes too much ‘cents’.wj

….however what about the Real Interest rate…..it has just gone negative …even if we use the bogus CPI
…Fed Funds rate minus CPI Core is zero at best…and the Fed will drop to 2.5 in april….

Although it is true that one of the three conditions exist at all times, it is the relative background that makes all the difference.  In the K-Wave cycle point where we are, paper promise trust is eroding……….. coming under great pressure as the driving force for people to look for protection for their wealth and savings.  Historically, Gold has been the only proven answer for thousands of years.  From 1980 to the bottom in Gold around 2000, trust in paper promises was rising so people did not fear for the safety of their paper assets.

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PMF @ 21:35 pm

by soee @ 21:56 pm.

That’s my guess and i’m sticking to it.   Anything is possible of course, but I’ve laid it out there for all to see and discount.  You mention that gold goes up with inflation, deflation or stagflation.  Does that also include disinflation?  If so, why did gold go from $850 to $255 over 20 years if it only goes up under all scenarios?

He, he.. yes i’m well aware of this fact. 

Getting roasted by on the spit by the Permabull mob. 

You forgot one group…A relatively small group of investors who think that………….we can end up proportionately better off per person than any country in the world if we keep our heads on straight …….never forget the micro economics of our group as a whole or just small pieces of it.
I am having a long discussion now about how I can help convince some of the chairmans own family to avoid what is coming. And get them here.
I am so happy that I have some help within our own tent group to pass the info out. Cause ya gotta admit it I am going to wear thin on some people, and having different members become involved does wonders for the group as a whole.

I put part of my reasoning here:  earlier post from today

I haven’t recently sold out any of my long gold positions (at least materially) or hedged (bought puts) in any gold stocks over a longer term - but I will be considering doing so on any strength going forward.  I have a decent amount of SM hedges (puts) that i’ve partially rolled forward from earlier profitable trades (puts on banks primarily) so that could be considered a hedge on my gold stocks so to speak.  I will always continue to hold my core physical which I don’t intend to trade until well into the mania phase.  I will definitely add on any material pullbacks.

As for the $961.50 — I used the rule of seven to come up with a ball park figure.  EE is the one that did the calculation and pointed this out to me.  Yes, it’s a wild guess, but I feel strongly about my earlier reasoning which I linked above.  I’ve been hashing through it for a few weeks.

Here’s that Rule of 7 calculation — which i don’t put a whole lot of credence in but look at it as a good ball park figure for an intermediate correction based upon where we are in the overall cycle IMO.

Let’s assume the first gold leg ran from $255.00 to $456.87 – so difference is $201.87.

$201.87 x 7 = $1413 

1)  1413 / 4 = 353.27 + 255 = 608.27 (not close to any top)

2)  1413 / 3 = 471.00 + 255 = 726.00 (very close)

3)  1413 / 2 = 706.50 + 255 = 961.50 (i’ll go with it for my 2008 WAG)

4)  7 x 201.87 = 1,413 + 255 = 1,668 (that’s the 4th PO according to EE)

Please no hate mail! 

This is the ENTIRE post :  certainly has a different meaning to me when it is included in context. 

Jim:

I have been listening to you for over 1.5 years.  I got in at the top at &740 a year and a half ago. I lost it, made it back, lost it made it back.

I purchased your TA CD a while ago when it was still available and listened to your advice.  However, I keep making the same mistake, that being not wanting to sell! AGGHGHGHHG!

I keep getting caught up in holding for FEAR that I will miss out!

CIGA Anonymous

Dear Anonymous,

Put in an open order to sell 1/3 at $938. Then relax.

Regards,
Jim

www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/02/08/truck.html

Sorry to disappoint…but I cannot …simply because I took a note at the time and am not now able to find the exact statement on his website.

I do remember his contention that it would be an area for a possible sharp correction…a swing trade…as opposed to any change in his long term approach. fwiw…