Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

All of his prices have skyrocketed and the farmer’s share of the raise in price is not nearly as much as the middle men are getting!

I don’t know if you have been following treasuries lately, but there has been a major reversal on the long end of the curve.  Those interest rates are rising fast and it’s not really on the back of some great economic or inflation news.  The technicals look like the 30 year put in a double top on all time highs the past few weeks.  This week they have fallen out of their uptrend channel which is not good.

30 yr bond prices - rates rising

No what you mean pop, here at my local nz$4.90 for 2l.Crazy I remember in the 70s when I was a young fella a pint bottle was 4c then doubled to 8c overnight, I remember my mum going nuts!.I used to drink 4 pints a day.Butter and cheese are also going through the roof over here.Could be time to get a milking cow! and a butter churn.

A big gday to everyone.

Bought my 1st canadian maples the other day.Nice!!

Hi Kolton,  from what i heard, the no bid triggered clauses in the contracts of those bonds which required the 20% interest rate.  I think the reason that muni’s haven’t really sold off is because investors think this was sort of one day fluke.  Like a deer in the headlights, they’re frozen and don’t know really what to do.

Here are some muni charts to keep an eye on:

BKK - Munibond, Daily, 620

EIM - Munibond, Daily, 620

PZC - CA Muni, Daily, 620

VGM - Short, Daily, 620

-you can see they were tagged big time today..

1 month ago 2litres milk from my friendly local store A$3.20

two days ago A$3.50

today a few minutes ago A$3.95……….staggering from sticker shock

TQ, I agree with your view on the technicals right now.  I don’t think that now is not the time to be adding new positions.  I’m in a defensive wait and see mode.  Once the broader market rebounds, I will feel much better.  We are no doubt in the midst of a credit recession.  As the credit recedes, it’s like watching the tide go out and the skinny dippers are being exposed.

We have all read about how the Munibond market kind of went “no bid”…no demand…yields up to 20%…many authorities and local goverments are issuing bonds and must pay 15 - 20% interest.  Given this fact…why have the prices of muni bond funds stayed flat?  type the words municipal and the name of your state into yahoo  quotes and it will give you some muni bond funds for the state you live in.  These funds…in theory…are free of federal income taxes if you reside in the state whose bonds comprise the funds.  Arizona..where I reside..has a few municipal bond funds.  

 In theory….the current “mark to market” value of the bonds in all of these funds just took a huge hit…but the funds themselves have stayed flat.  I suppose it could be that the funds are not actually selling the bonds and will continue to pay the dividend (almost 5% for some of the arizona municipal funds)….and people want the tax free income and are not selling….but as an investor..if I knew the bonds held by these funds were crashing in price….I would sell…. 

Anyone have an explanation?

I find it rather odd that Greenspan, Bernanke, and Paulson are all saying that we haven’t seen the worst of the housing crisis.

Why do I find it odd? Because I think these gentlemen are liars.

What concerns me is I tend to agree with them. So, maybe they are telling the truth on this point, but it is so out of character for them to be so blunt. It makes me question my own conclusions (where am I getting my information from, etc.), as well as wonder what else they might be hiding that would benefit from talking the housing market down.

Too tired… just some stream of consciousness thinking.

PM

The banking index is down for the week and it looks like the buying is again drying up.  If it doesn’t improve soon, to me it looks like it’s back down again to test the recent jan lows.

The DJIA also looks to be running a bit out of gas as of today.  We had a nice 3 day rally which has been hard to string together lately, but again the sellers sold into strength today. The 50 dma crossed the 200 dma last month and now we see the 200 dma rolling over.  The setup right now technically to me looks a lot like December - where we had a bounce off of the Nov lows followed by higer lows then a second bounce which made lower highs before the selling intensified in Jan to new lows.  Again, the next few days will be important.  The RSI is neutral and the MACD looks positive.

Lots to look at; the $S&P, the $TSX, GG, AEM, the $HUI.

First the $SPX;  call it a double top, a rounding top, a H&S top, the October high had weaker MACD, the H&S neckline has been broken to the downside, and the backtest is failing.  Price objective looks to be under 1200.

If this occurs, what would happen to the pm stocks?  A few thoughts can be gleaned below.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=W&yr=0&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71404943119

The $TSX;  here we see what looks like a double top, and the mid low has been subceeded; currently in a reacton rally.   All this reminds me of the HUI double top in early 2004. It had a reaction rally, and then on April Fools’ Day it collapsed to the price objective. If this is a double top, then the price objective is roughly 10,400.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=W&yr=0&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71404943119

The AEM weekly seems ok in many ways, except for the past five weeks, inclusive.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aem&p=W&yr=0&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71404943119

Look at the double top in July and August.  It hit the price objective to perfection.  This was clearly in the technicals.

Looks like declining volume the past fifteen days, and resistance at $65.  RSI and MACD are weakening as they did in early November.  Could be a double top in the daiy the past three weeks.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p49883436035

A look at GG shows weakness lately too.  MACD, RSI and volume show negative divergence; that is, they are weakening as new highs are made lately.  Possible double top in the daily chart in January; if it fulfills then a possible double top from November and January may be in play.  If that develops then the low 20s are possible.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gg&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p49883436035

The HUI daily chart appears to be weaker than the above two.  Please draw your own conclusions.

Let’s look at $gold; here we can posit that from the July low of $641.10, wave one could have been the July high, with the August high and low being the b and c of the wave two. The run to $848 makes a good three, and the four followed.  The five may have ended at $942; RSI and MACD are suggesting that the area of least resistance is lower.   A break of $880 would break the LT uptrend line from the August low.  Horizontal support appears to be above $840 and then $825.  A normal 38% retracement of the rise from the June low of 641 would be about $827.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p49883436035

Looking back it seems that the time to add new positions was some time ago, and that Jim Sinclair’s view that to use borrowed money or margin is madness would be well worth reviewing.

I posted you at 20:02, where I addressed it to Uncle, Lord and Ment.  Your 21:43 on the Sage of Wexford reminded me to correct my directory of gurus-in-partnersip  to read: Uncle, Lord, Sage and Ment Inc.  Sorry about this oversight but it is corrected now.  Its hard to keep track of these things as mergers and acquistions take place over time <g>.  My wife still has trouble sometimes  remembering all the live and active partners in Merrill, Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, Smith, Equisetum, et al. Inc.<g>  Cheers.  Equiz.

Thanks, I will keep that page for future reference.

Wow after all these yrs I didn’t know they had sand dunes in Colorado, what it looks like though, under water at some time, maybe the whole place. I didn’t realize Pikes Peak was so high although I suspected it may be, but like I say so may mountains there, and never seen it from the air, that I knew of anyways.  As far as hang gliding, thats great , far braver person than me. Im glad I didn’t add crazy too.

has made quite a career for himself…..considering he is a fairly useless and suffers from logorrhoea.

You got it right on both counts. Glad to know you hold the place dear also and enjoy the area. Have you ever gone up to Valley View Hot Springs, north of Crestone? Nice place to hang out. PS It’s a National Park now.

amals- unfortunately there was a bank of clouds obscuring the San Juans as we flew by, another of my favorite areas, the Million Dollar Highway, Telluride and all. Lots of gold and silver has come out of that region over the years. Also had a birdseye view of the Grand Canyon later in the flight, but by that time the light was too low to get a good photo.

goldie- the Swiss mountain photos were all taken around Chateau d’Oex, Gruyere and Gstaad. Rest assured, anywhere you go in the Swiss Alps will be beautiful. BTW I have almost 30 years of very active hang gliding under my belt with no flipping out. Yes, it can happen, but it occurs less frequently than cars flipping over. Beware the crazy sport of driving, especially with some of the crazies here!

once you get the basics down, here is the next level to study.

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm