Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

First this evening, I stand in total, thats total, not somewhat, amazement at the knowledge and wisdom to be found within the comforts of this tent. Loss of words, thoughts….of how to express both my gratitude on several levels. Level One….this man is very thankfull for the words of many herein, and for a continuing (always shall be), education on the topics of gold, silver, financial, and even a worldly view of how ‘things operate’. Think my kudo’s this evening are less than genuine? Read on, please. Level Two,

For the past several days, I have been attempting to make my ‘Annual Pilgramage’ to a place of writings written some years ago by one only known as ‘Another’. His writings started in 1997, and each year I try to revisit those thoughts, and sort of get a ‘check up from the neck up’ at least as his thoughts related to Gold, and The Financial Situation as it may play out. In our lifetime, and probably even those who will follow in our footsteps.

Here is the link, should one wish to peruse, disect, analyze, his predictions, his views, on gold, and what may be around the corner. Each, can read, and take away, from his writings, and warnings….to the best of thier understanding. My own understanding, being one of little knowledge of most things, of being of ’simple mind’. Find reading his writings AFTER things have happened, is more meaningful to me….thus my own comment and view, of being of simple mind in most aspects.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

IN rereading some of his earlier posts, things once seen as through a muddy glass, appear a bit more clear. Provide to me, some improved sense of understanding. Perhaps, if time permits over the weekend, I had the thought of copying some of his ‘predictions’ and warnings and addressing my own simple comments. ??? For tonight, I want to address a couple ‘Warnings”…’Signs To Watch” for that he spoke of years ago,….that at the time, I did not have the knowledge to understand, or comprehend.

One of his signs of “Impending Financial Doom’, something to watch for….was the ‘Forgivenss of Debt’. While I at the time he wrote that warning, and even just up untill a few days ago, like a lot of what he said….simply words that went over my head. Then, as I was reading his words this week, I thought about Bernanke, and his speech to a group of bankers last week, emploring them to ‘forgive’ at least a certain amount of home mortgage debt. Encouraged them (bankers) to accept a 50,000 dollar loss on a 200,000 mortgage….settle if you will for 150,000. Better than having the stressed homeowner walk away….and have to place the property on today’s current market and perhaps get 125,000 or even a lot less. Bernake begging….for some amount of Debt Forgivenss. I remembered too, Hillary’s ‘Great Plan’…..of asking for a ‘freeze’ on foreclosures for the next several months. (A mostly political statement….and one that certainly will in NO meaningfull form or manner…address the problem. But it sounds good to the masses eh?)

Another warning issued, was to watch for the value of the dollar. As in, IF they cannot protect it, keep it up, against gold or other world currencies….that too will provide a sign that things are more dire, than ‘they’ will admit. (Since when, did the experts, and talking heads ever provide any information ahead of time, to ward off, protect, the average Joe Smuck?) Seems thier modus operendi is always….”No one could see….know….such and such would happen) Lies, and statistics (read, more lies)….and deniel of truth, if not plain out ‘misinformation’.

He (Another) also mentions the tie of gold to oil. I dont yet feel smart enough to address that issue…but is something I have trying to understand, follow, for several years now. I think, in today’s world, that runs on, must have, oil to continue operating in “Normal Mode’, and since I think oil, and Gold, are both universal money. (Currencies), I try to follow the two. And there is no room for any doubt….both of those are much higher than when he first wrote his thoughts.

One other ‘Warning’ issued some years back, was to monitor the Central Bank Gold Sales. Remember, this was in 97/98. Those that have been following the gold trail for at least the past 5 years remember the ‘boogie man’ jumping out of the shadows from time to time, and announcing, in a voice that always made the headlines….”The Central Banks are Selling…XXX tons of gold”, at which time, gold usually took quite a dip, at least for a few days.

Another says to watch closely, when the CB’s are no longer ‘Selling’ thier gold, or cut back. Seems in the last year or two, that too, has come to pass. ???

Seems, we are entering, some years later, (credit to those who have kept the ‘world turning’ as it where….in spite of so many imbalances. Credit to those, who have kept the ’sheeple’ at bay, and ignorant, while ever increasing thier amount of debt) Honestly, tonight, one must give credit, for those who have kept the ‘System’ from completely falling apart, thus far. It has bought the Gold Bugs, more time to purchase thier share of the Real Money, time to protect themselves. How much longer before we wittness another of his predications? One where one day/evening…..the Real Gold Market will ‘Lock Up’. Where there will be no more ounces to be had at any price??? Or the time he says will come, when Gold will indeed be ‘repriced’, in terms few cannot imagine. (10,000 an ounce or much more)

His warnings also include some advice on those playing the paper markets, even gold and silver paper. Warning to those who would wait, make thier fortunes First in paper, and then attempt to switch those ‘paper profits’ into the physical. A dangerous game. Best, for the one’s like me, to add a little physical here. a little there along the way. Best, for my simple mind….to make sure there is something in the wagon. At all times.

Interesting posts tonight on the Tent. Many confirm, affirm…the reading of Another. I think, we are close, two years or less, to the ‘Final Reckoning’. Where wealth can be, will only be, counted in ounces. Kudo’s to the ‘Banksters’ for keeping thier fiat game alive, and operating as it where, for so long. The ‘Prize’, the ‘Victory’, may soon enough, be measured in terms more solid and shiny. ??

Yeah, I think Bernake and friends are trapped. The day of ‘Reckoning’, knocking at thier door, our very own door. I think, the world is beginning to ignore the lame efforts of the Fed. I think, many have figured it out…..and like a few posted here at the Tent this evening….its probably close to the time, to protect one’s self. Yeah, I think, things are getting that ‘bad’.

Best, Farmboy

Kind of funny….if you had to guess..which state in the U.S. leads the country in searches on google for the term “stagflation”?  The state is fairly small in population..but leads the U.S. in search for this term. Which state? Washington DC.  I guess the politicians and their helpers are looking for some info.  Which is state is 2nd?  New York.  I guess the folks on wall street are scratching their heads also. 

You have succeeded… the quantity and quality of “stuff” you provide this board does not go unnoticed…greatly appreciated.

Did you notice Norcini’s perceptive comment in the third to last paragraph of his 08:27 pm posting today on jsmineset where he said:  “……hedge funds will never be a match for commercial shorts who sell with impunity.  The hedge funds do not know how to press their advantage and squeeze the losing side to the point where they break their backs and FORCE them out.  I am of the opinion that it is the computerized trading algorithms which the hedge funds employ are their Achilles heel, a serious weakness which market savvy operators know full well how to use to their advantage” (end of quote from Norcini)

The quote above was in reference to the silver market this past week.  I think Norcini’s points above, plus the final two paragraphs that follow it today in his 08:27 jsmineset posting are very instructive for all of us who are the recipients of what comes out of the algorithm trading today.

I dont think there is a thing I can do in the face of the  circumstances outlined by Norcini, except to do some adaptation of the ment17 idea, like maybe just hang onto my crotch and wait for silver and gold, and their related equities and warrants, to just keep going up.   Best wishes, Equiz.

Have a great weekend! 

“To laugh often and much; To win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children; To earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; To appreciate beauty, to find the best in others; To leave the world a bit better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch, or a redeemed social condition; To know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have succeeded.”

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

~ ~ ~ ~

Goodnight, everyone.

JBI

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — “Dr. Doom” sure is living up to his name these days.

Speaking to a packed room of financial planners here on Friday, the famed money manager and newsletter editor Mark Faber literally brought down the house with talk of a worthless dollar, a helpless U.S. central bank and a dire situation in which investors have just a few avenues left to turn to.

“We may now have a hostile environment for all asset classes, with the exception of some real estate and commodities,” said the editor of The Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, pointing out that since 2002 all asset classes have been rising — a phenomenon that hasn’t been seen for 200 years.

“The current synchronized global economic boom and universal all-encompassing asset bubble will lead to a colossal bust,” he said.

Financial markets, currently in the grips of a credit bubble that worsens by the day, will see a protracted period of high volatility, in which 20% movements either up or down become common and the chances of making a lot of money become very difficult, he said.

He heaps much of the blame for global troubles on years of expansionary U.S. monetary policy that had a flawed fixation on U.S. consumption rather than boosting capital infrastructure and spending. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are clearly backed into a corner now as they cannot tighten money policy without causing a collapse of the entire financial system, he said.

“Easy money and debt growth has had a diminishing aspect on U.S. economic growth — ‘zero hour’ may have already arrived,” Faber said, adding that he thinks the U.S. is in the throes of recession and has been there for the past four to five months.

Indeed gloomy nonfarm payroll data for February further routed U.S. financial markets Friday, convincing many that recession had arrived.

From bearish to deep in the woods

Faber was spouting his gloomy philosophy a year ago when in an interview with Time magazine he predicted all assets were in danger owing to easy monetary policy in the U.S. and elsewhere, with investors getting too used to constantly rising asset prices across the board. “I believe we’re in the midst of the greatest asset bubble ever,” said Faber in the January 2007 article.

Fast-forward to the present and you can’t blame some of that “I told you so” from Faber. Indeed, credit markets have been routed and financial markets have seesawed since late October, with some notable bubbles in Asia and elsewhere last year. And he said he’s not seeing enough bears out there, with investors still too optimistic.

“Before October, everyone was bullish — rushing into assets and out of cash. Then…over the last three to six months, people went to buy the rallies. Sentiment is not that bearish. The mood has stayed optimistic and asset markets are still vulnerable,” he said.

Nowhere was he bleaker than when addressing the beaten-down dollar, another victim of Fed policy which he said has ensured cash returns below the rate of inflation. “In the long term, the dollar is a doomed currency. It will go to zero,” he said, which produced some nervous laughter from the audience.

Bright spots in emerging markets, commodities

Where he does see some options for investors is in some corners of emerging markets, noting that he believes the Chinese yuan could double in value in the next five years or so, which will raise the value of many emerging Asian currencies at the same time.

The Asian property market is also favorable in the long run, given low levels of urbanization and low levels of mortgage debt. He said fears that a Chinese property bubble are on the horizon are overblown given that home prices have gone down as a percentage of gross domestic product and as a percentage of household income.

Among his other emerging Asian investment themes: real estate; health care, such as pharmaceuticals and hospital management; local brands, which could replace international brands; and commodities such as sugar and cotton. Tourism is another big theme that he likes for the Asian markets, including hotels, casinos and airports, along with financial services such as banks, insurances companies and brokers. Infrastructure is also a key theme, with “bottlenecks everywhere,” he said.

He is also keen on Cambodia, which he describes as having a relatively open economy, with a regulatory framework and government commitment to attract foreign direct investment. He said the country’s young population, strategic location, abundant natural resources and exceptional access to trade privileges make it an attractive investment locale for light industry and agricultural businesses.

With the world population growing, especially in emerging markets, arable farmland will become an increasingly pricey commodity. He highlights First Farms, a Danish company founded by a group of farmers whose land was bought up by developers; Ukraine-based Landkom International and Astarta; and Black Earth Farming, a Swedish-run company that invests in Russian farmland and has an initial public offering forthcoming.

Other commodities worth a look: sugar cane in Brazil, palm oil in Indonesia or vegetables in China.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

JBI

17,327,991 . . . . . . . . . . .

every other week as gold goes into some induced sell..

we see time after time opinion, some hypothetical situation , some nameless group or subset, or voice , or talk, come to the fore and remind every one that a top is in or will be in or sometime will senD the stocks down.. FIAT SCREAMING UP..

BASED ON WHAT . RUMOR, things to provide doubt, foresHADOWING SOME INSIDE insight , based on what might be,

in the meantime .. gold is pushing 1000 , silver 22 hui 500 and higher… and for seven years .. on schedule this voice (shorts) keeps the doubt lingering , fear induced.. oh my gosh sell the stocks.. sell the gold, we are seeing new forces that will make a purse out of a sows ear..

lets let the gold bull work its way up.. instead of warning shots ..

why … ..

an opinion only … not a specific reference to any poster , or group , or moose …

And guess who probably wrote that headline… Our old mate … the Gonad…

“The jobs numbers point to more of a recession scenario than the commodities complex would like in order to enjoy a continuation of their recent run,” said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.

For I fear that our famiy’s  portfolios are threatened and that I should take seriously the advice to “Do not try to save the world” because maybe “this is it” and maybe I am “slipping out of control”.  <g and LOL>  Cheers, friend.  Equiz.

I read Kaplans article and thanks for taking the time to point me to it. I didn’t however originally read Barrett as meaning that the military was psychopathic, rather that the vast majority of the military were and are in fact far from it.

I read him to mean that the Psychopath has a natural advantage in heirarchical organisations (and this is especially important and currently apparent in government but also applies to corporations and the military) in that he is capable of unashamadly lying and manipulating others to get to the top, and then when there, forcing outcomes based on his worldview down the line.

I think he was pointing out just how hard it is for most people to actually kill someone else, and that the military actually holds a vast majority of men who feel this way,  but this is a fact that’s downplayed by those who are interested in  warmongering for profit. He also stated that even the vast majority of men who had killed in battle (75% of the 20% ) feel remorse and that excludes them from the small percentage (5%) of  psychopaths that do not.

It’s unfortunate that those that are “very good at their job” would tend to gravitate to the very highest level in their organisations.

I actually saw his article as putting a far more human and “normal” face on the military than outsiders like myself would usually have. Not sure if everyone would see it that way, but thats how I did.

I LOVE listening to Peter Schiff on the financial channels. I have noticed that they never have him on these days, now that he has been proven right. How I would love to see him get on CNBC or Bloomberg and say “I TOLD YOU SO!” If I were him, I’d be phoning that dolt, A. Laffer, and telling him to send me a signed confession of how wrong he was. For years I was pounding the table saying that our economy was only sustained by zero percent interest car loans, and by people endlessly doing cash out mortgage refinances. Most people didn’t see or care how unhealthy that was. Now people are finally starting to get it. Too bad most people learn everything the hard way.

…around Nov. 2006(?), I told my branch that I was going to withdraw all 40k+ in an annuity fund I had invested in very recently, even foregoing $1k interest due late Jan.  They asked why?… I said sure… I’m buying gold.  The Personal Banker met me when I came in, all kinds of charts, gold’s volatility, ups and downs, need for exit strategy, bad idea, wait until 1/21for $1k annuity interest due at least .. etc.     I explained much…inflation a monetary problem…. gold should be $2500 by inflation standards (raised his brow)…..no real effect.   At that time gold was $503.  I was not going to wait until 1/21.  Was buying another 80 oz.   The PB said he was going to write the date on his tickler – when the interest would have been due, 1/21.  And he wrote down $503.  He was going to check the price of gold on that date.   Gold was $725 on that date, January.  I never went back in to the branch… wonder what he thinks now, or does he think…

indicator of the potential direction of price of gold changes in the future.  To give credit where credit is due, I acknowledge that I claim no benefical interests in nor authorship rights to this new POG indicator - it is directly from the headline writers at Kitco.

Anyway, are you ready for it?   “Gold edges down after bleak US payroll data”.

Wow !     I shall be on the lookout for this red flag.  Happy weekend, all.  Equiz.

on the housing market just yet

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/