Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

….is originally from my home town, a point I don’t think she would mind me stating.  Saw her several weeks, ago.  She is doing well and looks very happy.

One of the most important things that everyone needs to do in all parts of life, not only in investing, is to put certain things into perspective.  If one walks into a tavern it is not wise to try to drink the place dry just because another person is doing so.  If one walks into a jewelry store, it is not wise for many of us to be buying $10,000 wristwatches just because others are. If one walks into a casino, it is not wise for most of us to be betting $1,000 a hand on blackjack just because someone else is (Last time I was in Vegas I was sitting at a $2 table and some guy sits down betting between $1,000 and $5,000 a hand.  He was already down over $100,000 he said, and I offered to leave “3rd base.”  He nicely said, “No, you’all just enjoy yourselves.”  Within an hour he was back “up” in the green and elected to leave, but offered to buy all of us breakfast.  I was still fretting over my $2 bets.)  If somebody sees someone eating out of a dumpster for breakfast, one shouldn’t dive on in, IMO.

Every single investor needs to first, “Know thyself.”  Are you conservative in your wants and needs?  Are you a fly by the seat of your pants gambler?  If you are very conservative in life in general, then you probably are very unlikely to jump in to follow somebody else’s moves- you are used to taking “baby steps.”  If you are a fly by night gambler, then you are either very instinctive in your gambling skills, or you are very used to the merry-go-round ride of pain that “fly by the seat of your pants” will so often bring, and you need to get off the merry-go-round by coming up with a different strategy.  I believe that Einstein said something like, “Doing the same things over ‘n over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.  As Clint Eastwood said, “A man (or woman) needs to know his limitations.”  That extends in all directions.

Nobody, IMO, should ever simply take another’s word or another’s moves to follow without first completely understanding the circumstance of the situation, the upside of the situation, the downside of the situation, his own mentality in the situation, his own skill level in the situation, and have a decent feel for where things could come at him from left field in the situation.  That goes far beyond investing…..into all parts of life.  I certainly do not stick my hand into anything unless I feel like I know the above………and I can sometimes still get burned.

Thus, when I write an editorial, or in the present case it has taken a series of Parts to state  my opinions- I try to give the complete underlying set of reasons why I believe what I think.  At every turn I only hope to entice readers to think harder- to maybe see some aspect or angle that they might have missed or didn’t even know existed…….. that they can delve further into to find some meaning.  Am I successful in doing that?  I don’t know, but a writer never knows for sure.  I do not simply toss out a potential target without all of the background thought that went into it.

In my dental practice I do not tell patients “what they have to do.”  I take the time to explain all of the alternatives in treatment in regard to a problem, then answer any questions that they may have.  Many times the patient will simply say, “You’re the doctor” because they are used to others telling them what they “have to do” in most medical situations.  That is not what I was taught to do in Dental School.  If a patient seems particularly unable to make a decision, then I will tell them what I would suggest if it was my Mother, my Daughter, or my Father……but I also explain why I would make that decision.  Then the patient will make the decision on his own, and if he needs to take a few weeks to do it, so be it…………..if he needs to ask further questions, then he is welcome to call, anytime.  IMO that is how things should be done.  If a patient gets upset because I won’t make a decision for him, and he walks out…..so be it.  My job is to educate the patient just as much as treating him, IMO. 

Equisetum, one of the biggest rivers to cross in this Tent, IMO, is the vast differences among all of the occupants in terms of the level of their financial resources, the level of their financial knowledge, the level of their financial confidence, the level of their willingness to take financal risk……………take that together with the fact that there is a great diversity among tenters by being from a vast array of different socio-economic environments, from different ethnic backgrounds with different values, from different age groups of different levels of experience, etc………………This place is ripe for periodic misinterpretation of others.  To top it off, many posters here have been pretty successful in life in general but come from so many different orientations since engineers think in much more concrete terms, where artists push the envelope in creative terms, where those who have had close significant others who lived through the last depression might think only in terms of safety, etc………….I think the different variations on thought are infinite.

I think the best we can hope to do is to ask questions of each other, to be willing to discuss issues as we go, because one question from one person no matter how silly it might sound to some, might take a hundred posters and lurkers one step closer to some particular point of understanding.  Yet, we also see is that so many are enamored with charts.  Why?  I think it is because pictures are a favorite of most humans going all the way back to the caveman.  In fact, a collage of pictures along with the written words of explanation to accompany the drawings is probably the fastest way to some comfort of three-dimensional understanding for most of us.  In late 2001 I knew pretty well “zippo” about charts or technical indicators or anything related to market finances, but I really wanted to learn………for myself………for my children.

I apologize for this long rant, and no, I don’t have a particular place I am going with it, except to encourage others to continue to ask and to answer questions from and for each other so that the vast knowledge of the tent can be spread around as much as possible.  Comminication can be a shaky thing at times, but don’t let it stop you from seeking the knowledge that you seek.  In general, the tent will learn, together.

 Take care,

 GR

Your certainly no dummy! 

Just wondered if he ever got the answer as to why 10% were successful and others not!  Persistence, blind luck,  the harder I work the luckier I get, better equipment, better geo reports. 

I found in my life, that my advancement/promotions/appointments always happened after I made a tough decision that turned out to be the right decision and no one else was willing to make one.  Maybe it is all based on CONFIDENCE in ones ability!

 Have a good evening!

I suppose we each have our own answers. The book stores are full of books that claim to have the answers. If one had the real and perfect answer, he would be the richest guy around.

Luck or hot streaks play their part but I have a favorite saying that one can make their own luck both good or bad to some extent. My Dad told me early on that if I wanted to catch a fish, I had to keep my hook in the water. I have caught some big ones on the lake, in the river, in the Gulf and in business when I least expected a strike.

I was also told that money was easy to make and I could make as much as I wanted, within reason. It was true. I worked long and hard like everybody here. I found more than my fair share of production simply because I would not take no for an answer many many times. (I did marry my sweetheart of Sigma Chi 50 years ago) More than anything for me was - I expected to be winner as being a loser was not an option and I was persistant and confident even at the bleak times and there were some big downers. Being a geologist is better than being a brain surgeon if one has the nack to find production. Yes, some have it and some don’t. So we are back full circle -Why? My rambling comments and boreing stories in IMDB under Energy shed a little light on how a dummy found oil and gas. Deadeye

For the record i did not have an abusive childhood.  If I had to peg you, I definitely would finger you out for a Pollock.

yep alice miller .. wrote “for your own good” that talked about tough love .. of the german generations before and during hitlers time .. and the results ..

Ment I’m sure ya know about that tough love German upbringing.   We’re all serious all the time; we play for keeps — then somebody kicks some dirt in over the top of us.  LOL - I am want I am you could say.  goodnight

Think about it this way.  If I’m wrong, so be it I give up my “insurance” (about 5%). 

Now think about how many across all the boards are fixated upon your (and others) pie in the sky predictions for PM equities.  We’ve got many rookies new in this market, wanting not to buy an interim top.  We’ve got retired people who depend on these investments.  We got people with their whole life savings in this PM bull - me included.  We got people levered up to their eyeballs in commodity stocks assured by ‘experts’ that you cannot lose if you just buy and hold on.  Things are volatile.  I take this very seriously.  I take sole responsibility for my own decisions - charting my own course.  I do not worship golden idols hanging on their every word; I do my own analysis and trade according to my own gut instinct.  It’s a dog eat dog world ya know..

has transpired over the past 6 + hours, I wondered if you picked up on a point that I posted on Goldtent at 16:18, March 7th.   My comments there were inspired from a  comment made by SilverLustreDos a couple of years ago.  At the time she said, posting on Gold Forum, that she was in the PM market as a small investor trying to keep ahead of the game by being involved in what she thought was a good basic asset to be invested in, and she was not one of the bigger operators who she perceived many posters on Gold Forum to be. 

At the time I related to that humble comment, and I still do,  because, truth be told, we in our family accounts are in the same league as SilverLustreDos was at that time.  In that context, the concepts I post on Goldtent are from someone who is investing in PM-related entities because I think that is a place  to have some of one’s limited resources, not in the context that I am investing play money that could be lost without impact on our monthly or annual needs for investment yields.  I think this distinction does weigh upon how Goldtent readers may interpret some of my comments.  I admire that SilverLustreDos made the distinction clear.

Best wishes.  Equiz.

did he get a weekend pass? 

“I do own physical and SM puts.  I also own a helloflot of metal stocks.”

 I must have missed the part of you owning “a lot of metals stocks.”  That would answer the question about put options on PM stocks being protective…………….LOL.  Don’t worry, buddy, I’ll keep you on the straight and narrow…………he, he, he.

Now, I can’t quit laughing……………….

“One is fortunate to encounter someone who asks the right questions that stimulate one thinking. We have such  persons in our mist - but Goldrunner is king when it comes to this. Ment is also a mentor who speaks in a strange way to those who will listen.”

Yes, Deadeye, many times when I come off as ”challenging” it is really only in the interest of gaining perspective.  In fact, my editorials are really meant to challenge myself and others to think deeper……..to work harder at it.  I do not know but a tiny part of what one might know about the markets, but………  The more sophisticated the challenges, the more likely we are to ultimately be successful in this endeavor, whether one wishes to protect his savings or to profit by investing.  I know that you understand that.

Look around this place.  Everywhere you look there is somebody who is pushing the envelope in life.  To point to a few……. we have yourself with the geology of the oil industry and past great successes where few have ever roamed, Redokie taking on bio-fuel, Irish trying to conquer B-berg, Maya reaching out to white Gold, MMS, and so many things; Equisetum conquering horsetail but with much experience in many parts of life, Ferret shearing sheep along with shearing PM companies, SOEE taking on the general market downside, Farmboy having spent so many years moving through “jungles”, Moggy working with holistic meds………and the list runs on down the page.

Yet, in the background I have talked to so many from the Tent that have had great successes in their lives in so many areas- all of the many vocations in life.  The Ment tends to come from a unique angle on things- something that I like to see since many things he says have much deeper meanings.  I don’t think there is a weak link in the crowd to be honest with you.

USERX as I see it……………RSI break-out, MACD break-out, price break-out to new highs ……………….in fact, reminiscent of an earlier move in this chart’s Wave III< IMO.

A)  I answered your question which I included in my soee@ 20:57 pm.  Go back and READ your initial question if you are confused.  Stop trying to worm your way out.  Is it sooo hard for you to ever admit that you were simply wrong?  You have repeatedly said that I did not answer your question.  This is flat out not true.  You think if you tell a lie enough times it becomes reality?  Do you secretly work for the Treasury department?

B)  I do own physical and SM puts.  I also own a helloflot of metal stocks.  My SM puts were initially my hedge against possible falling commidity stocks in a SM crash of some sort.  This turned into a fiat generating scheme which I plowed mostly into PM equities, new SM puts, physical and now some PM puts (small amount) - in that order.  What’s it matter to anyhow?

You are really trying my patience.  Is it really any wonder why I snap at you?  Do you picture me chasing my tail round and round to satisfy you?  Now leave me alone and go find someone else to harass.

Did the mentor ever come to a conclusion in answer to his question???  Inquiring minds would like to know! 

Your post made me think of these things - not sure why - just things I know. 

“Sometimes nothing is a real “cool hand”,  Paul Newman - Cool Hand Luke

I hope I have learned that when you are on a hot streak you better ride it as hard and far as you can - because there are going to be long dry spells also. (much like your pair of duces)   

I learned at a early age that it is far easier to go 0-4 picking football games than it is to go 4-0 (don’t ask me why - it just IS). 

I also learned that if it is “obvious” - it will most of the time be “obviously” wrong!  How about NE in the Super Bowl?

You have stated ad infinum that you own general stock puts with physical Gold.  Since Gold would tend to rise during a deflationary scare sell-off in general stocks, there would be no reason to “hedge against physical Gold” falling.  Thus, the PM stock hedges are simply speculation.  I have nothing against speculation as long as one feels comfortable doing it, but the puts on Gold stocks would not be a hedge for protection in that case.

In the next question about a general stock investor that had always invested in general stocks only (not you) for most of his life, my point it that he will not try to flee to commodities, or Bonds, or anything else outside his comfort zone- if he flees, he will flee to money markets or PM and Base metals stocks………..and it would not take much of that to send the PM stocks flying.  So, this scenario, or the Fed cutting rates aggressively at this time would send the PM stocks flying, IMO.

As far as my ownership goes, I own physical, PM stocks, a few base metals stocks, and a much, much smaller percentage of calls on PM stocks that are mostly up massively at this time.  I generally do not hedge.

He explained that from his position he had observed that some geologists find oil and gas and some don’t. He elaborated that 10% of the geologists find 90% of the discoveries - is it luck? - Is it training? -Is it experience? - Is it personality? - Is it persistance? - Is it self confidence? - What makes the difference in great success and mediocre performance?

He repeatedly asked the question and we spent hours discussing this until he passed on. One is fortunate to encounter someone who asks the right questions that stimulate one thinking. We have such  persons in our mist - but Goldrunner is king when it comes to this. Ment is also a mentor who speaks in a strange way to those who will listen. Appreciate them and the others here, too many more to mention, in fact the entire tent community. The diversity and knowledge here is incrediable.

Traders and investors are same as geologists. Some have great success, some don’t. There are also cycles when everything one touches turns to gold and sometimes one can not buy a pair of duces. Patience! <g> Deadeye