Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I think the healthiest thing Silver can do now is to consolidate between 15-18 for a while to confound both bulls and bears. We got very overbought. A sideways work off would suit me fine. I bought Thursday in the form of CEF.

that drove the price to $50 last time?…

There is only one way to know lol Call all the silver producers, asked how much they have produced..if being truthful, that was bought how much reserves, then the refiners, on and on and expecting everyone to be accurate, but hum may give you an idea, that is if you can find out how much has been bought. yikes

I don’t doubt the veracity of the no-inventory claims at the dealers.   I am just a highly suspicious/cynical person.  I am just wondering if the supply could be blocked upstream of them.   Understand that I know next to nothing about how the supply chain works.   Feel free to educate me.

 The only thing to do is buy…now.

omencity.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2911

I just called a VERY GOOD friend, ( A COIN DEALER) …

He goes to almost every coin show, ,,I asked If He had any Silver for sale

His reply “NONE AT THESE PRICES”..but He had some…

I asked, If He knew anyone????,, He said He would get back to Me…

In A Nutshell….No Physical at these prices……Burma-Shave!

I don’t know.  My impression of him is that he has put a lot of pieces of the puzzle together in many areas.  But that is only my impression and is probably not worth much.   As I said I will try to get more definitive information on Sunday.  I hope he is wrong as I have bet hugely (for me) in the silver shares.

So, in essence what you are saying is that you do not believe the many accounts of physical Silver lack of inventory, but do believe the paper trading of futures in regard to Silver supply?  Please don’t forget that paper silver can be printed on a whim with a computer, where physical Silver can only be dug out of the ground in select places.

I believe this is a V bottom that will completely recover this past week by the end of next week. I think we have either seen the bottom, or more likely we’ll drop down to XAU 166 on Monday before heading back up. If we make that lower low, the GDX will drop to $45. After studying several charts, it’s my opinion that this has been an orchestrated headfake drop to shake out as many as possible. I expect to see the XAU at 235 and the GDX at $69 by the latter part of April.

This is all my own personal opinion and not investment advice. My best wishes to all silver and goldbugs.

How can this aquantance know how much silver there is above ground, still avaliable that is?

…….to level never seen before until just 3-4 weeks ago. LOL!

WEEKLY

MONTHLY

QUARTERLY

JBI

So everyone is out of silver.  Something smells in more ways than one.  An acquaintance of mine in an offhanded comment last weekend told me that there was plenty of silver.  I didn’t question him further at the time but I will see him again this weekend and make it a point to inquire further. 

It would not surprise me in the least to find out that the shortage is contrived and that a motherload is ready to be dumped on the market at the appropriate time.

By Chris Giles and Krishna Guha in London

Published: March 21 2008 22:02
Last updated: March 21 2008 22:02

Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis.

Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets.

The conversations, part of a broader exchange as to possible future steps in battling financial turmoil, are at an early stage. However, the fact that such a move is being discussed at all indicates the depth of concern that exists over the health of the banking system.

It shows how far the policy debate has shifted in recent weeks as the crisis has spread to prime mortgage assets in the US and engulfed Bear Stearns, the investment bank.

The Bank of England appears most enthusiastic to explore the idea. The Federal Reserve is open in principle to the possibility that intervention in the MBS market might be justified in certain scenarios, but only as a last resort. The European Central Bank appears least enthusiastic.

Any move to buy mortgage-backed securities would require government involvement because taxpayers would be assuming credit risk. There is no indication as yet that the US administration would favour such moves. In the eurozone it would require agreement from 15 separate governments.

One argument among policymakers and bankers has been that new international rules have exacerbated the credit squeeze by requiring assets to be valued at their current record lows rather than at face value.

But a strongly held view at one European central bank is that it is not “mark-to-market” accounting that is to blame for severe weaknesses in banks’ balance sheets but that prices of MBS securities have fallen to levels that imply unrealistically high rates of default.

If public authorities were to buy and hold sufficient mortgage-backed securities – rather than simply lend against them as they have until now – at prices well below face value but above current prices, they would set a floor in the MBS market.

The Fed does not believe that the point has yet been reached when such drastic action is necessary and considers the discussions it has had with its counterparts to represent “blue-sky thinking” rather than the formulation of a definitive policy proposal.

Fed officials are monitoring the impact of the latest barrage of Fed liquidity moves and interest rate cuts. They also believe the US has not exhausted all the options short of wholesale public intervention and further intermediate steps are available to them.

These could include still more aggressive use of the Fed’s own balance sheet to boost liquidity in the markets.

Analysts say the US government also has plenty of scope to boost support for the markets indirectly through the Federal Housing Administration or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The UK lacks these institutions, which could be one reason why the Bank of England is keenest to explore outright intervention. The UK government has already become heavily involved in buying mortgages since September with the recent nationalisation of Northern Rock, the mortgage lender.

Michael Coogan, the director-general of the UK’s Council of Mortgage Lenders, said this week: “Demand for mortgages remains strong but cannot be fully met from existing funding sources.” He predicted higher prices and reduced lending.

It is not just central banks that think the MBS market prices are too low and imply a unrealistic level of mortgage default. Some US states’ pension funds are investing small sums in the mortgage market.

Robert Gentzel, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System, told the AP news agency: “Some of the securities that have dropped in value were really very solid securities.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

~ ~ ~ ~

BELIEVE IT OR NOT.

JBI

wow ive never seen that before at bulliondirect, never, wow is all i can say. wonder if something is up. this is unbelievable. writing with one hand.

This is unprecedented, and is a perfect case of market manipulation in the paper market at COMEX and other futures exchanges to see silver prices continue to drop down to below $17/oz. today. Paper promises can be created endlessly, but real silver cannot.