Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

stop confusing the Inmates….

Mr Hunt Bug

lessons to be learned from th Hunt Bros.

Lesson #1………DO NOT BUY SILVER VIA FUTURES CONTRACTS

TAKE POSSESSION!!!

I have been down that road (5) times and the last one (3) days in hospital, it dropped behind my pelvis and had the stent job.

I have not had another attack for at least 10 years, the Dr. gave me some good advice —Drink Water—it flushes them out 

and helps stop them from enlarging.

I’m sitting at key board with a glass of water.

Do you have any of that 50 Dollar Silver left to sell?

the central plains has plenty of moisture and the wheat is out of the dormant stage. the leaves are standing straight up and have good color. one more rain in april and the crop will be made. something to remember, there are always areas that don’t receive adequate moisture, hail, bugs, late freeze or whatever which reduces yields. the severity and area covered need to be closely watched this year as carryover will be extremely tight. a late freeze in the areas that show good promise will send prices much higher than the previous all time highs from the last crop.

wheat is an extremely hardy plant and will bounce back quickly after a good rain in drought areas. prices at harvest will most likely be under $8.00/bu or over $14.00/bu.

margin requirements are much higher now so expect extreme volatility. my areas of interest now are short term treasury notes (short), lumber and feeder cattle (long).

rno   

Wow, took time to read.

WHAT COMEX DEFAULTS? ain’t seen none yet! have you? if so then tell us all about it! wj

www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/815

On to the shares…

Hi Bill,
I have been waiting for this day for a long time. Several months ago during a prior downdraft in gold and silver, I mentioned to a fellow gold and silver investor that some day the gold and silver mining stocks are going to get so ridiculously undervalued that the value fund managers would swoop in. Well, that day has now arrived.

The lead and only article in the Barron’s Mutual funds section is titled, “Digging Deep For Gold.” Barron’s interviewed the manager of the Tradewinds Value Opportunities Fund. Tradewinds’ one and three year total returns through March 19 trounced the Russell Value 2500’s performance during those time spans. This manager apparently is not a traditional gold investor, but strictly a value investor. He searches for deep value.

Out of all possible stocks in the universe, take a guess what his top VALUE stock is? If you guessed a gold mining stock, you have guessed correctly. In fact, 4 out of his top 10 stocks are gold mining stocks. These are the decisions coming from a value fund manager, not a traditional gold investor. Enclosed is the link to the Barron’s article. Since I only subscribe to the paper version, this is a preview link.

online.barrons.com/article/SB120614217521656207.html?mod=9_0031_b_this_weeks_magazine_mutual_fund

Some analysts have indicated that it is only the juniors that are undervalued. It is not just the juniors that are massively undervalued as seen by the selections of this value fund manager who has picked several majors. On Thursday 3/20, the XAU/gold ratio just hit 0.183 which is a whisker away from multi-year lows that were hit in August 2007. The majors, intermediates, and juniors are all massively undervalued.

I apologize if you have already mentioned this in this week’s Midas, but John Hathaway had a very good article on 3/17/08 outlining the undervaluation of the gold stocks.

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/hathaway032008.html

In the appendix of his article, John Hathaway shows a graph of the Average Market Premium/Discount Applied to Gold Stocks’ NAV. On March 17, 2008, the shares were at their cheapest valuation in 6 years. This was before the recent downdraft.

The manipulation of gold, silver, and the shares have created a perfect storm for higher prices. The Achilles heel for the manipulators is the physical market. If everyone buys physical gold and especially physical silver, this game ends for the manipulators. I know several people who are buying physical because they are so disgusted with the share price action. Apparently, many other investors are also buying physical silver at least partly due to the anemic share price action. We finally have the attention of the value fund managers. The value fund managers seem to seek out industries where there is weeping and gnashing of teeth along with very strong fundamentals. For the gold and silver mining stocks, we have that condition in spades.
Have a Happy Easter.
Paul

And those value managers will find more value today. It is sickening to watch the DOW fly back as if there were not a care in the world, while the gold/silver shares continue to be blown towards oblivion. Black is white and white is black once again.

The HUI dropped 8.91 to 430.14 and the XAU lost .82 to 171.19.

Sabre has it nailed. This should be mandatory reading for anyone following the markets…

Bill,
I think we need to rest once and for all the massive amount of disinformation via traditional media outlets concerning the past few weeks.

1)This was not a Bear Stearns bailout. This was a JPM bailout and that is fact. BSC derivative portfolio is 1/7 the size of JPMs. If BSC were to mark their portfolio anywhere close to reality, then JPM, which reports in a few weeks would need (insert an absurd number here) in liquidity injections. 90 trillion in derivatives is the portfolio of JPM at the end of Q3 2007.

2)JPM raising its bid for BSC by a multiple of “5″ is JPM trying to eliminate the discovery phase in a lawsuit. Can you imagine the prosecution opening up BSC’s books and demanding that JPM do the same? IMO that cannot be allowed to happen. This bailout was done very quickly but IMO the PTB didn’t think this through very well. The collateral damage could be “considerable.”

3)The notion that the sell-off in commodities was a bunch of hedge funds liquidating due to margin calls is so stupid it borders on childish. Sure, some funds sold commodities to buy stocks but to say this was a de-leveraging is a bold faced lie. The SPX is up 7% since the de-leveraging process started!

4)Did we reach a major top in commodities? Not a chance. If you examine gold and oil stocks against their respective commodities, you will see that some of these ratios are hitting levels not seen since gold was $250. Also, the yield curve has gone parabolic and rates are extremely negative. The exact opposite is bearish for commodities.
Sabre

Did I mention before about the titanic, the the boats were not filled right away because people wouldn’t get on, not believing the titanic wouldn’t sink, until it started to sink. I presume to offset a panic they didn’t insist. I also found from a older and retired buisness  person that if they would have made it to the specifacations of the designer it may of not sunk, but they cheated on the steel.

But as the unsinkable molly brown once said when she wanted to go back for survivors, oh shut up your scaring me.

Received this in a e-mail today and being still in the Easter time frame  I thought I would share with all here. Hope everyone will take the time to read.

‘May You Live in Interesting Times’

Whats worse, what if some poor guy loses his job, gets sick what ever and unable to pay the storage fees. They’ll keep it.