Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I

charted the buck lately.. strong showing for sure LOL

How about that proposed deal with New Gold and Peak Gold?  MRB up about 7% today on the news.

…….good find there …..makes a great point for sure…

All….I vote tonites discussions amongst the Best Ever at the Tent….

…..Incredible Stuff…….somebody save this nites posts for future reference…

…..I feel like a Spectator at a Mensa Convention…..

….What an outfit eh Irish…..

Years ago, after subcribing to Prechter for too long, I came to the conclusion that Elliott Waves are a perfect hindsight system for describing what just happened in the rear view mirror.  But they don’t work when facing right.

wow…..thanks for that reply….Ask Rambus a question and you Get an ANSWERE…..

I’m almost afraid to ask what your target is for Silver for Wave 2.

Gold sentiment is horrible.  Sell sell sell…we’re topping out!  That’s all I hear.

Gotta love it.  Bottom’s near.

Grandpa

$350 please or is it $250… whatever!  Dear Captain has come to the conclusion that there is now a Commodity and Gold related bust Dead Ahead. Thank you Captain but, where were you 3 weeks ago, you idiot.

People like this give a bad name to charting. Notice that they need to THROW UP a dozen or so charts to prove their point. Why, do they need such reinforcement? Why is every chart a standard setting? 

Those indicators were not designed to be used for end all purposes but, for the most part were designed for a stock market bull which commenced in 1982. Each indicator must now be tailored, to be anywere, near effective, to both a bull and bear phase and yet modified again for both weekly and daily charts. Most of these indicators are worthless as presented. Indicators for tops may not work for bottoms and vice versa.

And, my dear Captain always throws a complete mishmash of multiple confusing charts up to prove his point. And whatever his view happens to be, up or down, he then Throws Up the same mishmash charts so as to back his opinion. No way the readers can figure this out so therefore we must subscribe so that he can tell us where this is all going.

As rants go this is mild but, get me started on subjective Elliot Wave projections and every rattlesnake in OK or TX will fear me as a kingsnake.

Look at this chart of the Dow bull……………How many “potential head and shoulders tops” do you see?  In a Bull market one sees lots of “potential” head and shoulders tops that do not play out.  In a Bear market one sees lots of “potential” inverse head and shoulders bottoms that do not play out.

 Look at the chart of NEM in a longer-term chart.  You see head and shoulders top- I see cup and handle………The question is “nickel-flip” versus intermediate-term or long-term trading/ investing all along the PM BULL. 

 I cannot believe the Tent has changed orientation from primarily long-term investment in PMs/ PM stocks, or intermediate-term investments in PMs/ PM stocks……..all the way down to “nickel-flip” to protect yourself for 5 minutes, or 5 days, or 5 weeks.

 Heck, let’s go down to the 3 minute charts and see if we can protect ourselves for 30 seconds………………….LOL.

Agree 100%

When the Gold:XAU ratio is above 5…that ain’t no top, folks.  That’s a bottom.  This is the time to go long and strong.  Reminds me of August 2007.

This chart also suggests we are bottoming:

www.technicalwatch.com/bpi/goldbpi.htm

Grandpa

I think oil has completed an impulsive up wave and that the B part of the correction will be complex and long and either a triangle but more likely a flat.

I still hold the idea that we have completed a 7 year wave 1 in the pm’s - so the wave 2 would be long say maybe even 2 years using a rule of thumb ratio to wave 1. It could be a flat or a triangle but as you know usually wave 2’s are steep and brutal. In the grains, weather aside, I really don’t have a feel for how steep the correction will be. For a time, I thought since these are mostly demand driven rather than event driven that the correction would be rather shallow and a sideways affair as oil. And with the commodity funds buying grains with oil this makes sense. But looking at the soybean chart, I don’t get that feel - it looks like it will be ugly. Corn, on the other hand, does give that feel.

As far as industrial commodities, since I still believe we will see good stock market prices (as you did though you may have changed your position) I would expect these commodities to hold up rather well but correct nonetheless.

But I still believe we are in a decades long bull market in most, if not all, commodities. So in say 20 years I expect all commodities and especially pm’s to be much, much higher.

aurum (commodities pm’s)

300 DMA = $751.92 = New All Time High

TARGET = $1,121.56

Goodnight, everyone.

JBI

PS - youtube.com/watch?v=lKg4g9zMeHI&feature=related

19,751,844 . . . . . . . . . . . .

Good call. Nice to know someone got out at the top. How are you viewing oil and commodities in general, over the next 6 months to a year?
All the best to you aurum…Rambus