Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

You posted:

“Well, just like all good tops, not many get out at the very top because things are so darn perfect that the mindset is, the market can’t go down. The very next day when we should have blasted through the top of that rising wedge we did just the opposite of what

everyone was thinking

me included.”

Perhaps not everyone was thinking higher - I considered it a wave 5 ending diagonal and so going lower. See my post of 8:32 am on March 16, 2008 selling GLD. This is where I entered the trade: 14:11 pm on December 13, 2007.

I do appreciate your charts, as others have also posted, and particularly the detail you put into the charts.

Best wishes.

aurum (GLD)

Ment - you are correct in that it will only be a good move if I get back in lower than I sold (which is not a given as I don’t plan on buying on this bottom) and do not worry the trade is in my Roth so no taxes due on capital gain.

I hope you are both on the money. Could use 8 weeks of upside. Wish I had some dry powder to pick up some great buys but the bins are empty.

Here is a picture of the 2nd largest producer, NEM. The first chart is a daily look that shows a completed H&S top. We have just broke down from a small H&S top on the daily which would be the right shoulder of a much bigger H&s top on the weekly. We broke the NL a couple of weeks ago and have just completed a backtest that didn’t make it all the way back up to the NL.

The weekly look isn’t much better. Remember, the H&S top on the daily is just the right shoulder on the weekly. At the very least I would expect a test of the NL at 38 to 40, and if the NL holds, we could morph into a symmetrical from that point. WHAT IF, the NL breaks?
Rambus…

Hey, Rambus! I trust that you know, without any doubt, how much I appreciate all the work that you share with us here at our TENT. I have learned much from you and sometimes I see things in your charts that I don’t see anywhere else. Your “Picassos”, as I like to call them, speak volumes to those who take the time to listen to them. It is hard for me to argue any point that you present because I know what you are seeing and see the logic behind it most of the times.

Of most concern to me always is whether or not this Mother of All Bull Markets is still alive and well. When we have to put up with and endure such brutal corrections and pullbacks as the one we’re going through now, all I want to know is whether the long term UP trend is still intact. And at this time I have no doubt whatsoever that IT is and that the very best is still to come. So, instead of thinking of a possible “TOP”, I am thinking of another opportunity being given to me and others to buy even more. It is at times like these that I ask myself if I am really in this for the long term. I perform some gut checks. Are the fundamentals still there? YES! Is the long term trend still UP? A resounding YES and without any reservation at all. The long term moving averages are still moving higher, the long term trend is still unanimously bullish, rising and, oh yes, almost completely ignored by the vast majority of investors, analysts, media, pundits and pinheads of the world.

Do you realize that if GOLD were to decline all the way to $840 in the next 2 to 3 weeks it would still be 29% higher than where it was in August ‘07, just 8 months ago? This pullback, as brutal as it may be and feel, is one of the healthiest things that could happen. Many are being shaken off, scared to death that it has ended. YES, they remember the TECH Bubble and the Real Estate Bubble and they don’t want STRIKE 3 being called on them. But we are still in the early stages and have a long way to go. Have we consistently seen PM stocks in the most active lists of the AMEX, NYSE or NASDAQ for weeks and months on end? NO. Have we seen stock splits announced by many of the companies whose shares we cherish? NO. Have we seen a MACD approaching 150 in GOLD as we did in ‘79/’80 or of 1,000 as we saw for the NASDAQ in the late 90s? NO.

What I am trying to say is that speaking of a “TOP” may be worthwhile for short term traders. Even intermediate term traders may find it wise. But a long term investor, in my most humble opinion, should only be thinking of additional entry points, or levels at which to buy more, more and much more, if at all possible.

I have written before of the benefits of performing “gut checks” within ourselves as to the fundamentals that have driven this bull in PMs and PM stocks for 8 years now. All the worthless paper that keeps being printed by all THE CENTRAL THIEVES of the world, all the manipulation by the dirtbags that has been futile, people are still thinking of a great comeback in real estate, others still dream of another tech mania…..and no respect is given to the PMs and PM stocks, at least not yet. Every chance the pinheads of the world get, they babble on what a bad investment the precious metals are, and the average so called “Joe Six Pack” has yet to even come close to looking at what we have going on in this very small capitalized market of miners. Precious metals? What is that, they wonder? LOL!

Rambus, I now that you have not said that this great bull market has ended and I know you’re just waving a “caution” flag. I know you feel that we may be in for a bit of a dragged out correction which could be very painful to some. For this, I am very grateful and I know many here are as well. It is wise to study and ponder what you are saying and bringing to our attention. Don’t get me wrong, please.

But, at the same time, I don’t want anyone of our friends here to miss what is ahead of us. Call it what anyone wants to call it. IMO, the center of the most powerful advance of this awesome bull is still to come, the so called three of 3 of III. We will only recognize IT when it is behind us. I want everyone here to be in it 1,000%. It will make the TECH Bubble seem as nothing more than a flash in the pan.

Once again, thanks for all that you do here at our TENT. You are one of a kind, highly respected by yours truly and very very much appreciated by all, I am sure.

THANKS A MIL!!!!

JBI

PS - Thanks to all who have read this for putting up with me. I guess I was just in the mood to………

youtube.com/watch?v=bLkOE4XDBis

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-jpm-bac-LEH-BSC-fre/index/a/16480

now i know what you do when the tent goes down! [ggg] wj

Risk on the low side is 875 to 880, but if the recent lows hold tomorrow, the possibility of breaking out of the “low chop” could send Gold up to 995 by weekend/ early next week.  Would get turned back, there, but the PM complex is going much higher over the coming months.

This could be a symmetrical triangle, or a pennant like we saw in 2006, the last triangle on your last chart.

Well almost today. Took a nap and woke up at 3:57 and said Darn It.  Finger on the trigger at these levels. Why would anyone buy PM stocks right now?

Well, for starters you have the Clive contrary indicator working in your favour. Then we have the same old, same old, “the Gold Sky is falling” newsleters and internet crowd stepping all over themselves to call for ever decreasing Gold price forecasts from $850 to even $550! Ski is back up at the plate saying that the “new” Life run may be busted.

These folks are in a time warp and are just repeating what they said last August.

Look at AUY for example, check the charts…thats correct, you could have bought this stock, for roughly the same price, back in the first week of January! The same goes for many other PM stocks.

Seasonalities are also in the bulls favor. From the August low to the March high was roughly 7 months… this suggests further upside.

Technically, the PM stocks are oversold and in fact the bottom may have taken place today. There is an obvious attempt to crash Gold below $900. This, IMO, would work for only a day or two at most.

We are being gifted, right now, with a wonderful opportunity to BUY the metals and stocks at bargain prices. Fear is our enemy. And if you think that you are sticking your hand out trying to catch a falling knife then you are correct but, you are catching it a few millemeters from the floor.

I am not a perma-bull. I think that we will have another great buy opportunity this Summer. But now is now and the time to stage in buying is now..sometime this week.

The PM bears and their related shorts are flat out scared. Some entity of that ilk needed rescuing pronto as shown by the over extent of the initial 3 day smack down. Paulson was up at the plate today, March 31..end of Quarter..smack Gold down..PPT and Central Banks ever so coordinated.

Looking now for an 8 week run-up. At most, the bears have a few more days. My charts are telling me to buy…so by this Thursday I am fully in and yes, back on Margin.

You don’t have to buy now if your not comortable, thats understandable. But, to sell in in here? thats nuts! 

“What the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is doing now is simply buying time,” said Marian Tupy, an Africa specialist at the Washington-based Cato Institute, in an interview. The government hasn’t “decided what to do: to declare a state of emergency, to simply steal the election, or to postpone the day of reckoning by allowing a second round,” which would be held within three weeks if none of the presidential candidates win more than 50 percent.

Public dissatisfaction has grown with Mugabe’s 28-year rule after a decade of recession and the world’s highest inflation rate of 100,580 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBxEj8Qpm2W0&refer=home

A double top in 1998, and yet it broke down, and then went on to new highs.  To be sure this is a pause; in oil with demand increasing and with supply apparantly limited, this could be a flag.  We wait and see.

We have different styles; and while your approach employs a few tools that I do not,  I find your work very helpful.

I like when I need to answer a question in detail; it forces me to list the facts that support my opinion.  That you do the same makes your work a good education for me.

When I ‘dissect’ a chart, I sometimes find things that I did not expect to see.  This occurs when we are at turning points; sometimes these are only short term changes.  Sometimes they are larger formations and patterns that suggest more important changes ahead.

We are at one of those now; the charts have a lot of technical work to do to overcome the bearish patterns and signals that I see developing.  These need not fulfill; they need not be confirmed.  But, as we saw in April 2004, the signs that I wrote about in late January 2004, and later, were visibly correct in signalling the downside in the HUI that lay ahead.

Look at the bear flag in July 2007;  these things happen.  Yet a number of bear flags before that were simply bottoms.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p03667147475

Speaking of tops, I know you follow the XOI and FCX. As they haven’t broke down yet they still maybe saved. These are just a couple of H&S that are starting to show up on the longer term look that has me on the cautious side for the time being.
Thanks for all your input to the tent JBI. I know everyone appreciates it very much…Rambus

…….if, since GoldTent was created, there has ever been a seven day period in which the word “TOP” was used more than it has in the last 7 days….Mine, mine, mine! How quickly sentiment changes…… just a thought, don’t mind me.

JBI