Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

TQ that was a very eloquent and well thought out response.  I placed it on the sidebar under ‘Site Admins’.  Thank you also Dutch.

I’ve learned a lot from our dutch uncle Deadeye, too.

Cheers, TQ

got any rain yet? too bad you didn’t have a bucket inside the tent for the last couple of weeks. some real pissing contests. you could have had rain and fertilizer with it. i wanted to join in, but every time i do, the wind changes.<G>

the pm should start moving up again pdq. i still can’t get the direct relationship between pm and grain, but it never seems to fail. the relationship between a consumer item and a store of value is tough to determine in the short run.

the bonds are telling me there is still a lot of scared money out there. the yield curve is wacked out again and dollar denominated bonds are rising while the dollar is falling. go figure. i guess some people are buying bonds and pm and assume that no matter what happens, they will have something of value. lots more corporate dead bodies to float to the surface soon. those that aren’t big enough to cause a major fallout will be allowed to go under. lots of major companies are hiding some off-balance-sheet items. the first liquidity squeeze will illuminate them like a roman candle.

i bought some may feeders on the spike down. got a little movement and then they slowed down. i guess the ethanol guys have slowed down a little and don’t need as many mouths to feed the brewers grain.

later

rno

As always you live up to your reputation of a Prince and a Gentleman with more than your fair share of wisdom. Good night, Deadeye

The professor said that gold will be cornered not by speculators, but by widely dispersed market forces. The corner will be a true black swan event, spontaneous and unexpected, driven by a sudden overwhelming need of the marketplace for a safe haven for savings and wealth, the safe haven of last resort—gold.

When this happens, most speculators will be locked out, as they will have waited too long to buy in, as they attempted instead to try to coax a few more dollars out of their favorite paper dollar dispensing machine.

www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schoon/2008/0407.html

and consequences of those decisions. We try to teach our children this and some listen and learn but others have to learn by their own mistakes not by observing others. Our hope is they are small mistakes. 

That said I am of the school of principles and if I know I am right I was taught to stand my ground and take the consequences if need be.  Some decisions have no right or wrong answer but still have to be made by the one in charge. That is the price of leadership, one simply does their best and the chips fall where they may. Deadeye 

I do hope that this latest dustup will fade quietly into history.  I do not have the answer to the greater issue that seems to generate the discord, that of freedom and how to use it.  My own view is that this is a gathering like a family reunion.  And so it is incumbent upon each of us who post here to observe that modicum of decorum required.  I look at it as if each one of us were the host at the gathering.  A good host would not abuse a captive audience by monopolizing conversation, nor would a good host direct conversation to areas that would seem to be likely to or have started to elicit discomfort.  If needed, a good host can discretely ask someone to meet privately for a chat.

There are ways to direct attention to a point of view without putting both feet in one’s mouth, or arguing in ways that would frighten the children.  One can suggest a book by a respected authority to read that may represent a different opinion.  Or perhaps an article or essay that discusses two sides of an issue, and then attempts to evaluate each, and finally to offer grounds for a decision in favour of one or another.  This is one way to develop good judgment, especially on social, political and related issues.

Tlaga taught me one of the golden rules of debate.  Be polite to your friends [those who would agree with you.]   And be most polite with your enemies [those who would disagree with you.]  I find this rule very helpful.  It forces me to be very cautious, slow to reply, and to be very moderate in responding to issues in general.

I have learned too that simply stated facts or opinions are not likely to change someone’s mind.  It is like the humourist once stated about the pedant, ‘Don’t try to confuse him with the facts.’  We may believe that freedom means some particular things, or that some issues have been settled long ago.  Yet for some the meaning of freedom is not like ours, nor for some have some issues been settled.

In cases where it seems that this is the source of dispute, then it may be best to set the matter aside before it becomes tedious for others to witness, especially when it could take a long time to settle the issue.   So, at such a point it would likely be best for people to agree to disagree, and set the matter aside for futher study; each can post later some article or book as I mentioned earlier, for those who would like to persue the matter futher.

If only politics, religion, and finance could have remained separate entities.  In the real world they are part and parcel of the total situation….to deny that is to deny reality. 

I don’t look to make trouble…I only try to seek the truth.

Heidi - I wish I was capable of giving you a complete list or could even enumerate on “inflammatory topics”.  I think everyone needs to just use their common sense first and foremost.  Secondly, if multiple posters (esp. admins) start objecting or saying “take it to the pit” that is a pretty good indicator.  In truth, usually admins are the last ones to be offended - but we often appear offended once certian issues are raised by others (as offensive). Yes, it’s very judgemental. The point is to avoid these non-stop disruptions of the entire board solely to prove some point - including going to all lengths in an attempt to prove a perceived lack of freedom of expression..  IMO it is a very selfish, immature and just socially unacceptable to high-jack the main PM discussion board for these purposes.   Floridagold has given some good guidelines which I agree with.  Welcome again…

Smokke - suggestions are welcome.  It’s easier on the administrators if others help us nip it in the bud and politely reinforce whether an issue is an inflammatory topic or abusive in some other nature - including offensive.  Just telling a poster that you don’t appreciate this or that goes a long way and most are rather receptive.  Don’t assume that we read every post or decipher what is going on. Earlier, I put Mobox into a ‘timeout’ for 20min which is customary cooling off period.  Sometimes we do that for as long as a couple of days - and we reserve that right - and that is sort of your penality box (but it’s not publicly advertised as such, but agreed amongst the admins).  Anyway he is gone permanently.  We don’t need that kind of disrespectful and disruptive behaviour around here.

Yes, I do like to keep an equity position in copper and molybdenum to supplement our silver and gold-related holdings.  And yes, factsmatter, we do like Taseko and we hold shares in that company as part of our family core holdings.  The second and third copper/molybdenum holdings in our core portfolio are Northern Dynasty and Amerigo.  I have posted before about Amerigo, so will not repeat the details here.  A link to their site is posted below.  Amerigo (ARG.TO) is a producer with a dividend yield currently at 5.8 % and a P/E ratio currently at about 6.

I am encouraged that, despite the occasional analyst who predicts that a global recession will dampen the demand for copper and molybdenum, there are still some on Goldtent who remain optimistic about copper and molybdenum, as I am.    Cheers. Equiz.

http://www.amerigoresources.com/

I do remember you as oldgoldbug.  Funny that, as I usually have trouble keeping track of the hundreds of posters, and their personalities, quirks and posting histories for some odd reason.

Cheers, TQ

I have always heard that there are two things that are not discussed in polite company:  Religion and Politics.  It appears to be true because everytime these are discussed here or any other forum that I have been associated with there are disagreements and angry posters that totally disrupt the board.

The other thing that AuDept requested when he started the TENT was that we post nothing which his 12 year old daughter should not read.  If we all did that, then there would not be a problem in my opinion.

I think that my copper comments earlier and last night are a shorthand for the fundamental reasons that I think that the markets generally are likely to move higher; I don’t know how the next month or so will play out.  For example, it is possible that the industrials could do a wave four lower than this year’s low, to just under 11,000, perhaps as low as 10,600 area.

On the other hand we can read Richard Russell lately writing that he thinks that the January lows were pricing in the bad news that arrived later.

Since we are treated to generous amounts of bad news each month, we could still see the C wave or wave 4 down to under 11,000, even with all Russell has written.

Could it happen in a month, after a US dollar rally up to near 74 or 76?  Sure it could.  If the general markets rally for a month, so could gold and silver and their related stocks.

Unfortunately, due to time constraints, I am a little out of touch with some of the better analysts and what they are writing on the public boards like Safehaven.com and 321.gold. Today’s candlestick in the HUI daily was bullish imo, as I remember this one.  Of course, my memory too is not what it was.  With that in mind I interpret the candlestick to suggest that the bulls ran the hui up, and the bears could not force it lower than it opened, nor even to its open.  So the bulls won today.

What does that mean to me?  Well, considering the bullish picture for copper, and the fundamentals behind it, I think that an increasing number of money managers are becoming more confident that the world economy will weather this storm; so they are taking positions in anticipation that this will be at least a tradeable rally.  Just my thoughts, on a late night for me, after a very busy day when I had very little time to study the markets, as a number of constraints on my time kept me on other things.

Cheers, TQ

Farmgal is down here Thurs. 2 or 3 o,clock.