Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

listen their is a hell of a good universe next door lets go

e.e. cummings

Equiz - I can see you have bought the wrong french curve.  This is why it’s not working.  At least you have made some good use for it in the garden, drawing those curves by which you’ve planted your golden teeth  border bullions - I approve. <g>

an alternative french curve to trade me for the one pictured above, which I have used to ill effects for my buy/sell decisions for Silver Wheaton.  For reference, see JS at 04:51:00, 02 May 08 on jsmineset, for the amazing  fit displayed between Yamana Gold and the “right” french curve <g>.  Lord, if I could only get my french curve to work like that for my Silver Wheaton warrants.  My french curve  for SLW/WT.TO says SELL.  But I say HOLD.  I’m going to win this one. <g> 

Have a great weekend,  all fans of french curves.  Equiz.

Definitely in my “top-10″ daily reads:   Jesse’s Café Américain

Today’s serving ……

HELOCs: the Next Shoe to Drop?

Once again Mr. Mortgage proves to be an extraordinary source of information on the mortgage debt crisis with regard to HELOCs: Home Equity Lines of Credit.

Fresh news out…S&P pulled a slick one. They STOPPED rating second mortgage RMBS citing “anamolous and unprecedented” borrower behavior. Here is a little piece from Bloomberg that enhances the previous story very well, calling all Home Equity loans ‘junk’.

Remember, this is a $1.3 TRILLION market with the bulk belonging to very few banks such as BofA, Wells, Chase, CITI, Countrywide, WAMU, National City, GMAC and IndyMac. I put a couple of nice quotes below. This could turn out to be a fairly large story in the making.

that does make my day….nice little IH&S…..the search for bullish clues in the Juniors continues

Here’s that Clean Install process.  It can mess your world up if you screw this up, but make a world of difference if you can follow the process - I hope at least!!  <g> 

                                                            clean-installation-of-windows-xp.pdf

Goood Luck and I’ll try to answer what I can. 

Stop that crazy talk…..

Microsoft Says it Withdraws Offer for Yahoo- ReutersMicrosoft Corp withdrew its offer for Yahoo Inc on Saturday after negotiations fell through because Yahoo wanted more than the $33 a share that Microsoft was willing to offer…. » read more

The US dollar is going to .5200 and in truth the US sees that as a benefit

Gold is going to $1650 because just those you blame for lower gold will make the greatest profit on gold’s rise.

As far as I am concerned about that there is NO question. J.S.

the five year note had a rpw and i made a good ride down. should have stayed hooked for a position, long term, trade. shorted some corn for a contra trend move. wheat down .30, beans down .70 and corn up .03!!!

later

rno

I’m ready for some euphoria.  short end is coming up pretty strong; we really hit our inflection point during the Martin Armstrong turn date - Bear Stearns collapse.  I’m uncertain right now.  The buck can rise together with POG, we’ve seen that before. The USD is more responsive to the short end of the curve and it is what is finallly bouncing here. Bonds are hanging tough due to the credit crunch / liquidity / safety - but really look to be topping out on the long end - it goes on longer than the bears can stay solvent.  It is perhaps the world’s greatest financial condundrum of today isn’t it? 

all contra behavior should be completed this week or next. the crb has exibited signs of bottoming and many commodities are turning. gold and silver should also join this rally. please expend all negative efforts in your system and prepare for euphoric behavior in the near future. the catalyst for the movement is an extremely bearish outlook for bonds. soee and i have been wondering how bonds can remain high with the dollar sinking. we should find out soon.

everyone please puke up any remaining pm shares you are holding so the market can rally.<G>

rno 

WEEKEND DEAL FOR THE PIONEERS?

AP

MICROSOFT UPS YAHOO OFFER ABOVE $31 PER SHARE

By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer

MICROSOFT RAISES OFFER FOR YAHOO ABOVE $31 PER SHARE IN DEAL THAT COULD RESHAPE INTERNET

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Microsoft Corp. finally dangled a higher takeover bid in front of Yahoo Inc. Friday, hoping to reach a friendly deal after weeks of saber rattling.

The Redmond, Wash.-based software maker upped its offer beyond the original value of $44.6 billion, or $31 per share, according to a person familiar with the matter. The specifics of the new offer weren’t known by this person, who didn’t want to be identified because the negotiations are still confidential.

The New York Times, citing unnamed sources, reported Microsoft boosted the offer by “by several dollars” per share, lending weight to the assertion by many market analysts that Microsoft can afford to pay up to $35 a share.

Representatives from Microsoft and Yahoo declined to comment on the negotiations. The talks were expected to continue into the weekend.

In an intriguing twist, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and Yahoo President Susan Decker were both expected to be in Omaha, Neb. this weekend to attend Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting. Both Gates and Decker are on the board of the company led by famed investor Warren Buffett.

The prospect of a sweetened offer lifted Yahoo shares 80 cents in extended trading after surging $1.86, or nearly 7 percent, to finish the regular session at $28.67.

Sunnyvale-based Yahoo began pressing for a higher offer shortly after Microsoft made its unsolicited bid in February. That offer, which was made half in cash and half in stock, is currently valued at $42.3 billion, or $29.40 per share, reflecting the decline in Microsoft shares since it began its pursuit of the Internet pioneer.

Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer had held firm, insisting the original offer was fair in light of Yahoo’s eroding profits during the past two years. He threatened an attempt to oust Yahoo’s board if the 10 directors, including Chief Executive Jerry Yang, didn’t accept the offer by April 26.

Now that Yahoo has forced the issue by letting the deadline pass, Ballmer appears ready to put more money on the table.

Microsoft’s board reportedly met earlier this week to consider raising the bid as high as $33 per share, or about $47.5 billion.

Several of Yahoo’s shareholders are reportedly holding out for at least $35 per share, a price that would value the deal at about $50 billion.

Microsoft offered to buy Yahoo for about $40 per share during confidential discussions held in early 2007, but Yahoo’s struggles since then make it unlikely the revised bid will be that high.

In a comments to Microsoft employees Thursday, Ballmer said he has a price in mind but didn’t reveal it.

“I know exactly what I think Yahoo is worth to me, exactly,” Ballmer told the employees, according to a transcript filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. “I won’t go a dime above, and I will go to what I think it’s worth if that gets the deal done.”

Most analysts have predicted all along that Microsoft eventually would buy Yahoo for $32 to $35 per share, so the news of Friday’s negotiations wasn’t a major surprise.

“It’s all going according to script,” said Ken Marlin, a New York investment banker specializing in technology deals.

The outcome of the weekend talks will likely ripple across the Internet.

If Microsoft and Yahoo shake hands on a deal, it will mark a significant step toward uniting two high-tech powerhouses whose online services are used by more than 500 million people worldwide. An amicable transaction also would make it easier to meld the two companies’ disparate technologies and cultures.

Should the two sides remain at loggerheads, Microsoft could still try to force a sale by trying to replace Yahoo’s board with 10 directors more inclined to approve a deal.

But that risky maneuver, known as a proxy contest, would likely entail several months of mudslinging with no guarantee of success.

Even if Microsoft were to prevail in a hostile takeover, it could wind up with buyer’s remorse because the hard feelings provoked by the battle would drive off many of the Yahoo employees needed to make the deal pay off, said Arthur Dudley, a New York lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions.

“The trick for Microsoft is to figure out where the tipping point is,” Dudley said. “They probably don’t want to do a hostile takeover and just wind up with some more computer software and a bunch of empty desks.”

Ballmer also has said Microsoft might simply withdraw its offer and walk away from Yahoo. Most analysts doubt Microsoft will give up the chase because Yahoo’s still-prized Internet franchise would give the software maker its best chance to chip away at Google Inc.’s dominance of the booming Internet search and advertising market.

Google’s specter may have prodded Microsoft’s higher bid. Yahoo is reportedly nearing a long-term deal that would allow Google to sell ads on its Web site. Although the alliance might be blocked by antitrust obstacles, Microsoft likely wouldn’t want to risk the chance of Google gaining access to Yahoo’s vast audience.

Yahoo executives think the company is well positioned to bounce back from its recent malaise, but Dudley doubts the company’s board will resist Microsoft if its new offer is sweet enough.

“Yahoo’s board won’t have a lot of choice if the price is right,” Dudley said. “Now, everyone is just scratching their heads trying to figure out what the number is.”

~ ~ ~ ~

JBI

www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2008/05/03/harrington.equity.freeze.KTVK

If the charts are manipulated, and they are, then I maintain that the fib numbers contained inside those charts are useless, except that FIB too is a self fulfilling prophesy.

P.S. We know how it’s going to end, badly, very badly. Bedlam badly.

One dear friend finally bought himself a small pile of gold coins, but he still has his 401K which I have been begging him to withdraw, at any penalty, because it’s better than having the whole thing evaporate.

I live in Kaleefornia and know several who are part of this CALPERS stench. I have been asking one guy for a couple of years about CALPERS and what their investment (cough) exposure is, and he is insistent it is bullet proof. Looking in it is, but there’s a firing squad facing him.