“demand must drop if the refinery ain’t working”. the past eighteen months have seen at least six refineries close for upgrade to heavy crude processing and additional capacity.  the demand was met by other refineries running at capacity.  at least two are back up and running with additional capacity and are now refining heavy crude which is not included in the inventory reports from cushing for nymex. the demand has simply shifted to other refineries which are operating above normal capacity. two more refineries are closed to upgrade. when they are run at capacity, normal maintenance is not performed since they are to be shut down and upgraded. one little problem, fires seem to come from non maintained equipment. oklahoma has had 5 refinery fires in the last five years.

if we manage to get through this fiasco, most refinery operations will be able to process heavy oil from canada and things should return to “normal”, whatever that is. the next two or three years promises froth and chop and big moves on rumor and gossip. i lost both my contacts in the crude oil and natural gas industry so i can’t give good updates with accuracy. also, my daughter doesn’t work for a gasoline distributor now. the distributor now only sells to retailers with their own transports.

rno

DJ WSJ(5/20) It’s A Dog’s Life, But In Moscow That’s Not Bad

(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)
By Mark Schoofs

MOSCOW — Like human commuters, this city’s stray dogs can often be spotted
traveling on the subway, waiting patiently for a train to pull in and its doors
to slide open.

In Soviet times, dogs were barred from Moscow’s metro. Today, however, they
are so common there — curling up on empty seats, nuzzling their neighbors,
lounging in stations — that there is even a Web site devoted to them:
www.metrodog.ru.

A tiny group of zoologists study Moscow’s stray dogs and how they’re adapting
to a rapidly changing city. Among them is Alexei Vereshchagin. He set out to
study wolves — “such a romantic creature,” he says — but as science funding
crumbled with the Soviet government, he couldn’t.

So the 31-year-old, rust-bearded Mr. Vereshchagin started studying strays
instead, and loved it. “The behavior of stray dogs is like theater,” he says.

As the number of cars in Moscow has exploded, and their speed increased from
the days of Soviet clunkers, strays have learned to cross the street with
pedestrians. They can also be seen occasionally waiting for a green light.
(Dogs are colorblind, so researchers theorize they recognize the shape or
position of the walking-man signal.)

Back in the lean Soviet era, restaurants and the now-ubiquitous fast-food
kiosks were scarce, so dogs were less likely to beg and more likely to forage
through garbage, the zoologists say. Foraging dogs prospered best in the vast
industrial zones of Moscow, where they lived a semiferal existence. Because
they mainly relied on people to throw out food, and less on handouts, they kept
their distance from humans.

Now, old factories are being transformed into shopping centers and apartment
blocks, so strays have become more avid and skillful beggars. They have
developed innovative strategies, zoologists say, such as a come-from-behind
ambush technique: A big dog pads up silently behind a man eating on the street
and barks. The startled man drops his food. The dog eats it.

Key is the ability to determine which humans are most likely to be startled
enough to drop their food. Strays have become master psychologists, says Andrei
Poyarkov, 54, the dean of Moscow’s stray-dog researchers. “The dogs know
Muscovites better than Muscovites know the dogs.”

Perhaps the biggest change, according to Mr. Vereshchagin, a protege of Mr.
Poyarkov, is that strays today hardly need to do anything to get food. One of
their chief tactics, made possible by their increasing comfort in crowds, is
simply to lie in a busy subway passage, where thousands of people pass by, and
wait for someone to toss them something. The dogs get fed without even having
to go to the trouble of nuzzling a leg.

Moscow today provides an environment of “unlimited resources,” says Mr.
Vereshchagin.

Mr. Vereshchagin strolls through a market area near a metro station, pointing
out that even though there are now more strays than ever in Moscow, the dogs
don’t have a lean and hungry look. The leader of this area’s dog pack, whose
coat is dirty-white with black patches, rises from a nap, stretches lazily, and
lopes off to a butcher shop. He stands outside for just a few seconds before a
meaty bone is tossed at his feet. He carries it off, but just nibbles at it.

In fact, many dogs ignore discarded morsels, because the animals are so sated
they can afford to be finicky, says Mr. Vereshchagin.

Unlike the strays he studies, Mr. Vereshchagin can’t be so picky. The city
has provided funding only for sporadic dog censuses, the last one in 2006,
which estimated the population of stray dogs at about 26,000. So Mr.
Vereshchagin, who has yet to finish his thesis, makes ends meet by training
people’s pets and working as a part-time paramedic.

Adaptations by individual dogs have added up to a dramatic shift in canine
culture. Begging is a submissive activity, so today there are fewer all-out
interpack wars, which sometimes used to last for months, according to Mr.
Poyarkov. Within packs there are more stable social hierarchies that allow the
whole group to prosper.

Still, there are occasional attacks on human beings, like one in April in
which a 55-year-old man was killed by a pack of strays living in a rambling and
overgrown park. Mr. Vereshchagin says he doesn’t have firsthand information
about this attack, but says that dogs living in forested areas aren’t as
familiar with people and are more likely to aggressively defend their
territory.

The death has reignited a controversy. Even while the city has allocated the
equivalent of $63 million mainly to build animal shelters and carry out related
programs, some people are calling for a return to the Soviet practice of
culling strays.

Still, many Muscovites appear to enjoy, or at least tolerate, the dog
population. The vast majority of homeless dogs go out of their way to avoid
antagonizing people, says Mr. Vereshchagin. Even pooping in the metro is rare,
he says.

Many Muscovites feed the strays and build simple winter shelters for them.
Older people particularly seek companionship in Russia’s new capitalist
economy, which can be ruthlessly dog-eat-dog.

And strays form part of the city’s character. When a disturbed fashion model
several years ago stabbed to death a gentle stray that lived at the
Mendeleyevskaya metro station, horrified celebrities and ordinary city
residents raised money and erected a bronze statue of the dog, Malchik. One of
novelist Mikhail Bulgakov’s most beloved stories, “Heart of a Dog,” features a
stray named Sharik who takes human form as a slovenly proletarian.

Moscow has done almost as much adapting to the new culture of dogs as the
dogs have done. A strong animal-rights lobby is part of that. Ilya Bluvstein,
leader of Fauna, an animal-defense organization affiliated with Russia’s Green
Party, warns of potential corruption in the city’s proposed shelter program.
Groups that win the contracts, he fears, will take money to house dogs but
actually kill them to cut expenses and fatten profits.

Meanwhile, in a metro station, three dogs nap. One of them rises, wanders a
few steps to some discarded potatoes, sniffs, nibbles, then goes back to sleep.
There will be more and better food later.

…these guys are soooooo good….they tellus ahead of time what will drive he Gold Market…and its soooo manipulatable….how do we know what they really talk about…?….they are a Perpetual BS Machine…

DJ MARKET TALK: Spot Gold Slightly Up, Awaits FOMC Minutes

0157 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold slightly higher, targets $910-$920/oz area but
will likely stick around $900-$910 prior to release of FOMC minutes Wednesday,
says Phillip Futures analyst Adrian Koh; minutes to give insight into Fed
direction on monetary policy, market currently expects Fed to pause monetary
easing, possible tightening in late 2008. )

Look at what happens when a refinery goes down.  Price of crude jumps up.  Every time.  Yet the POO should fall, because demand must drop if the refinery ain’t workin’!

crude oil set a record while gasoline and heating oil are stagnant. something ain’t right in denmark (cushing?). if i were the speculative type, i would think crude would adjust to its components rather than components to crude.

rno

were you not a member of the tent when i reviewed my experience with irish in a golf cart? you certainly had fair warning that irish is not to be trusted with a motor conveyance of any type. i will be visiting irish next month in belize. you can bet i won’t be around if he decides to fire up the wheel loader. at least you don’t have a red badge of courage (stupidity ?). come to think of it, my son will be accompanying me to belize. maybe i should increase his insurance. i really am glad you got to your destination without bloodshed or law enforcement intervention.

rno

this is my full time fun/game/work .. 6.30 am pacific.. until market closes at 1:30//

coffee at 7:30 ..

keeps me out of the beer halls , and the seedy places .. plus the laugh a minute ..

where else to find the flow of the river .. of humanity .. of the noise and folly.. the rough and tumble, the history being made .. in the dumpsters of life …

the cord is short from the wall to the computor .. ment does move.. lol

By Angela Monaghan

Last Updated: 1:34am BST 20/05/2008

Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank, has indicated that the worst of the credit crisis may not be behind us.

Mr Trichet said that we were seeing “an ongoing, very significant market correction.”

He compared the recent hikes in energy and food prices to the oil crisis of the 1970s, when higher wages undermined Europe’s ability to compete, resulting in widespread unemployment.

He warned that despite the economic slowdown, central banks should not be tempted to cut interest rates because that could lead to more serious problems.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/05/19/bcntrichet11.xml

I am cracking up here …

Was it someones idea at Google to play a cruel and unusual joke on unsuspecting travellers to make what should have been  as simple and uncomplicated as possible but instead produce a route of narly twisted convoluted directions as I`ve ever seen.

Yes, that is precisely the route Irish drove to get me to the airport after I practically made him swear on a stack of bibles that he knew the correct way to get there. That last comment would be way funnier if you were also in the convoy of tenters behind us yesterday afternoon as Irish was leading the way to Fully`s country retreat. LOL , adventures with Irish.

I hear ya..Yes, plenty more opportunities if/when tenters want to unite in Vancouver for a gathering.Looking forward to gold staying north of $1000 and some interest for the juniors in the future.  Have a great time at your reunion in the Water Street Cafe.. It’s a mere few blocks from my downtown office  but I haven’t dined there.

Hope the chefs are as superb there as they are at the Freedom Inn in Tottenham..Cheers     

WORLD STOCKS AT 4-MONTH HIGHS DESPITE RISING OIL

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose to four-month highs around the world on Monday as crude oil trading near record highs boosted energy shares, but U.S. technology shares turned negative after a chip maker said the record oil prices are likely to hurt consumer spending.

Oil closed at a record above $127 a barrel after OPEC’s president insisted the producer group would not increase output at its next meeting in September.

Crude’s relentless rise bolstered energy-related stocks in Asia, Europe and the United States. Exxon Mobil, the largest publicly traded oil company, led a key U.S. stock index higher.

Emerging market equities hit a high for the year, wiping out their 2008 losses in a new bout of investor confidence.

An economic forecasting gauge that showed the U.S. economy, while weak, has so far managed to avoid recession helped the dollar rebound from a two-and-a-half-week low against the euro. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index showed a slight April gain of 0.1 percent.

“There’s a realization that we haven’t seen, at least to date, a significant economic impact from the high oil prices and there is a general comfort level with the economic data,” said Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

MORE >>> tinyurl.com/6zewcm

Dow Jones World Stock Index

~ ~ ~ ~

Tonight in the Asia/Pacific Region…..

finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

AND

Aussie Gold stocks……

tinyurl.com/rb8sc

~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~
~ ~

JBI

ETF Securities’ ETFS Physical Silver ETF [LSE:PHAG] has lost about 85 tonnes since the start of the year, now with just about 285 tonnes in trust. Nicholas Brooks, Head of Research and Investment Strategy for ETF Securities, told RI that the fund has had about 3.5 million ounces (99 tonnes) worth of silver redemptions from February.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42901

truisms from someone who, perhaps, might thing the Tent is a pretty cool place to be, and full of patriots and constitionalists

‘Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose.’- Ronald Reagan

‘The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong.’
- Ronald Reagan

‘I have wondered at times about what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the U.S. Congress.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘The taxpayer: That’s someone who works for the federal government but doesn’t have to take the civil service examination.’
- Ronald Reagan

‘Government is like a baby: An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.’
- Ronald Reagan

‘The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘Politics is not a bad profession. If you succeed, there are many rewards; if you disgrace yourself, you can always write a book.’ - Ronald Reagan

‘No arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is as formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women.’- Ronald Reagan

‘If we ever forget that we’re one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.’

For you players out there, its important to understand that the long term correlation of the SP 500 with the dominant financial sector is now weakening as Big Oil becomes a more dominant portion of the sector, with outsized earnings growth.

You can’t play it to the short or long side unless you understand the makeup of what you are playing. This is one reason why we have switched more to sector plays recently as opposed to broader index ETF positions.

As an aside, these fellows fail the other sector that is turning in outsized gains with similar production cost problems and that is the basic materials and commodities sectors.

Oil Producers Mask Decade’s Worst S&P 500 Profit Drop
By Michael Tsang and Darren Boey

May 19 (Bloomberg) — Take away Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips and profits at U.S. companies are the worst in at least a decade.

Without the $70 billion that oil producers earned in the last two quarters, profits at companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 26 percent and 30.2 percent, the biggest decreases for any quarter since Bloomberg started compiling data in 1998. Energy companies made up almost half the income growth reported by S&P 500 companies in the first three months of 2008 as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, the data show.

The results leave the benchmark for American equities vulnerable to declines as oil companies’ costs balloon and production slips, according to Bank of America Corp., Charles Schwab Corp. and Allianz Global Investors. The industry is getting less profit from a barrel of oil than at any time since 2005, just as the rest of the U.S. economy is sputtering. Still, energy shares posted the S&P 500’s steepest gains in the past year, bloating their representation to 15 percent of the index.

”It’s kind of a Catch-22,” said Joseph Quinlan, 49, New York-based chief market strategist for the investment management unit at Bank of America, which oversees $643 billion in client assets. ”The better energy does, the weaker the rest of the S&P. It masks some of the weakness.”

Earnings Disparity

Energy companies in the S&P 500 reported an average 25.9 percent gain in first-quarter profit, the biggest of the index’s 10 industry groups, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For the broader market, earnings declined by 18.3 percent, based on the 441 companies in the S&P 500 that already announced results.

The drop increases by 7.7 percentage points when profits for energy producers are stripped out, according to Bloomberg data, making the contribution of oil companies the biggest in at least 10 years. Even after taking out financial firms and consumer companies that reported lower earnings, oil profits accounted for almost half of the overall gain of 11.02 percent for the S&P 500, Bloomberg data show.

June futures on the S&P 500 retreated 0.2 percent to 1,423.50 at 10 a.m. in London.

The divergence in the earnings of oil companies from the rest of corporate America indicates that the S&P 500’s two-month, 12 percent rally may not be sustainable, according to Neil Dwane, who oversees about $139 billion as chief investment officer for Europe at Allianz Global Investors’ RCM unit in Frankfurt.

U.S. economic growth ground to a halt in the second quarter, according to economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The last time the U.S. gross domestic product didn’t increase was in 2001, during the last recession.

‘Saved The Market’

”The oil sector saved the market,” said Dwane. ”Ex-oil, the numbers show falling earnings and with data highlighting a U.S. recession, we can expect more earnings downgrades.”

Energy companies globally are spending a record $369 billion on exploration and production in 2008, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. estimates. The cost to find and develop a barrel of oil quadrupled to $18 last year from $4 in 2000.

Even so, output from outside the 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet only about 20 percent of the growth in world demand in the next four years, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris.

Earnings at energy producers are lagging behind the rise in oil prices as a result. Analysts estimate that oil companies in the S&P 500 will earn an adjusted $55.67 per share, or 44 percent of a barrel of oil that closed at a record $126.29 last week.

That’s the smallest margin since September 2005 and about half the profit U.S. energy producers extracted from crude when it traded below $50 a barrel in January 2007.

Falling Production

Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, the three largest U.S. producers, all produced less oil in the first quarter. Chevron, whose reserves fell to the lowest in almost a decade last year, will spend more than $400 million a week this year to find reserves and tap discoveries.

Exxon, located in Irving, Texas, has climbed 12 percent since the S&P 500’s low on March 10. San Ramon, California-based Chevron has gained 18 percent, while ConocoPhillips, located in Houston, had advanced 19 percent.

Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd.’s Dominic Rossi says that betting against energy stocks is a losing proposition because oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel.

Oil will rise to between $150 and $200 per barrel in two years as supply increases fail to keep pace with demand from developing countries, Arjun N. Murti, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, wrote in a report May 5. The analyst first wrote of a ‘’super spike” in oil prices on March 30, 2005, when oil closed at $53.99 a barrel. At the time, Murti predicted crude may climb as high as $105 in the next several years.

Target Surpassed

Murti was proven correct as oil prices touched $100 for the first time in January. Investors who failed to take heed missed out on a more than doubling of oil prices and a 97 percent climb in energy stocks in the S&P 500.

”We can’t see oil falling below $100 from here,” said Rossi, who manages the $756 million Threadneedle Global Equity Fund in London. ”It’s time investors accepted triple-digit oil and started positioning portfolios accordingly.”

For Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, the ”real” price of oil should be closer to $80 a barrel. The San Francisco-based firm, which oversees $1.4 trillion for clients, is ”underweight” energy shares on expectations that oil prices will retreat.

More Sway

A 37 percent decline in crude oil to $80 would have a bigger impact on the S&P 500’s performance than five years ago, when oil and natural-gas companies only accounted for 5.8 percent of the index’s value, according to Bloomberg data.

Half of the world’s 10 biggest companies by market capitalization — Exxon, Beijing-based PetroChina Co., Moscow- based OAO Gazprom, Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro SA, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, located in The Hague — are now energy companies, at a time when the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil is climbing.

”A lot of that margin which dropped to the bottom line, that’s gone,” Bank of America’s Quinlan said. ”The easy money is behind us, for both the oil companies and investors.”

.