June 10 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell, driving two-year yields half a percentage point higher in two days, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pledged to “strongly resist” any waning of public confidence in stable prices.
Two-year note yields approached the highest this year after Bernanke said the risk of a “substantial downturn” in U.S. economic growth has diminished, prompting traders to increase bets that policy makers will raise interest rates. At ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney, part of the world’s largest interbank broker, the trading room erupted in noise, Matthew Johnson, the firm’s senior economist, said.
“The Fed is going to keep reminding us that they are worried about inflation,” Johnson said. “Bids disappeared for a while. Treasuries are still a sell.”
The two-year note yield rose 22 basis points to 2.93 percent as of 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo, according to bond broker BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.625 percent security due in May 2010 fell 13/32, or $4.06 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 13/32. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Two-year yields, among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates, may rise to 3 percent this week, Johnson said. The high so far this year was 3.10 percent on Jan. 2. Ten-year rates climbed 4 basis points to 4.05 percent.
“The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so,” Bernanke said yesterday in a speech to a Boston Fed conference. “The Federal Open Market Committee will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations.”
Fed Outlook
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter point at its Aug. 5 meeting. The contracts show an 88 percent chance the Fed will increase the rate by at least a quarter percentage point by December, compared with 67 percent odds a week ago.
“Treasuries have gotten crushed,” said Kenny Borowicz, a bond-futures broker at MF Global Singapore Ltd., part of the world’s largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts.
The extra yield that two-year notes offer over the Fed’s target interest rate widened to 93 basis points, the most since April 2005.
“Treasuries have entered `buy’ territory,” said Adam Donaldson, head of debt research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, the nation’s second-largest lender. “Pressure from inflation and the economic growth slowdown will bear down on equity markets and investors will still shift asset classes to safety.”
`Complicated Balance’
Fed officials have cut their benchmark lending rate from 5.25 percent in September to keep a U.S. housing recession and losses from the credit markets from throwing the economy into a recession.
The Fed faces a “complicated balance” of lowering interest rates to spur growth “without taking too much risk that underlying inflation is going to accelerate over time,” New York Fed Bank President Timothy Geithner said yesterday after a speech in New York.
“Treasuries will keep falling,” said Mitsuo Masuda, a manager in Tokyo at the foreign bond section of Sumitomo Life, who helps oversee the equivalent of $28.1 billion in non-yen debt. “The Fed will raise rates once or twice this year.”
Sumitomo plans to shift some Treasury holdings to euro- denominated bonds later in 2008, he said.