….Kohn vs Plosser
Yesterday afternoon one of the most bullish gold/dollar bearish comments imaginable hit the tape:
Watch-and-Wait Is Best Policy for Oil Shocks: Kohn
By Greg Robb
MarketWatch.com
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
CHATHAM, Massachusetts — Monetary policy should allow a temporary rise in unemployment and inflation to let an economy find its balance from an oil-price shock, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on Wednesday.
“It may be efficient to allow some adjustment period in which both overall inflation exceeds its desired low level and the unemployment rate is higher than its long-run sustainable level … setting policy in a manner that balances the undesirable effects of a shock to the system on both inflation and employment will tend to be more efficient than setting policy so as to deliver more extreme outcomes in either inflation or unemployment,” Kohn said in remarks to a conference on inflation-dynamics sponsored by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.
www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story
.aspx?guid=%7B0404E150%2DF28F%2D4729%2D86C6%2D088FDDF2EFCF%7D&siteid=rss
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Kohn’s comments were in direct contrast to the rest of the Muppet Show inflation fighting gab from Bernanke & Co earlier in the week. Talk about The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight. Surely talk about caving on inflation from the number two at the Fed, in complete contradiction to the number one at the Fed, shows disarray and panic … and is so gold bullish … which WAS to be a feature in this commentary today.
However, in one of the most counterintuitive market performances of all time, just the reverse happened … for no apparent reasons.
The euro is .0150 lower, the dollar is staring at 74 to the upside, gold is slaughtered, and the DOW is getting even stronger. White is black and black is white. At least the Orwellians are consistent. You have heard me remark time and time again that 95% of the time, when the DOW is hit hard and ready to fall apart, it is called higher to sharply higher the next morning. Almost NEVER is any normal follow through selling allowed to spook the public the next morning after a severe market drubbing.
Oh wait, we now have a reason for the DOW to rebound so strongly:
08:19 Philadelphia Fed President Plosser considers rates low by most standards in terms of being accommodative — CNBC
Plosser says it is clear that rates have to rise, though does not provide any clarity as to when that will take place. In response to a question as to whether the recent Fed hawkish emphasis in comments on inflation is a coordinated effort by the Fed and ECB, Plosser says that Bernanke was clear in his remarks on 9-Jun and that those comments by Bernanke and ECB’s Trichet, should be “taken at face value. Plosser says inflation is “serious.” Bonds have extended losses during the interview, while the dollar and S&P futures continue to trend higher. SPM 1345.5, +9.64 to fair value; 10-yr. (12/32) to 4.12%; $/€ 1.5416.
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Treasuries extend losses after Plosser remarks
NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices extended losses on Thursday after Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser said that the U.S. central bank is very accommodative and that it needs to make sure inflation doesn’t get out of control…
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Clearly Plosser was sent out to neutralize what Kohn said yesterday … The Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight in all its glory.
SO, rising interest rates are now stock market friendly????? The yield on the 10 yr T note finished the day at a new high for the move of 4.21% …
June 10 yr T note
futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/68
Then a picture of what short T rates are doing:
July 2 year T note
futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TN/68