Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Hi Equis. ,Goldbaloon and the rest of you good folks.

Have been feeling concerned lately.  worried about my pm portfolio.

Kind of losing my confidence.  I see gold retreating on days when the fundamentals  look so strong.  Got to agree with gatta. 

some entity wants to keep a rein on it.  Meanwhile I’ve been fortunate to be in the energy sector.  As Adam Hamilton pointed out ,

this last rally in energy has been huge.  Therefore , according to his theory, and using the laws of average, we are due for a huge correction in the energy sector, and that correction is immenent. 

Problem is, he has been calling for that correction since last November/October.  Certainly , it looks very overbought  technically,

and due for a correction. Light Crude, that is.  But maybe this time it

is different.  The fundamentals look so strong.  Hear the mexican Canteral fiel down a huge 30%  since jan.  Seems there is lots of money waiting for the sell off to buy in.  So my guess is, we may have a topping consolidation around 150, or a short sharp selloff at the most.  My feeling is any sizeable sell-off will be a buying opportunity. 

Some nice plays in the Bakken field in Montana/n.Dakota and Saskat. on Canadian side.  Marat5hon oil is the big blue chip there.

Marat5hon have two offshore fields just comming on line off Norway.  They have a 65% interest there.  They just bought out Canadian oil sands in Alberta.  Paid approx 4 Bill. for that and just

digesting it and getting started.  Also have a 26% interest in a new find offshore Louisiana  in Partner with PetroBrasiliero and another

large on.  Rumors this may be a giant field.  PRB is said to be excited over it.  Mro is cheap here and looks to have little downside risk.  The other Bakken play is small , with great potential.  Bexp/Brigham explor.  Of coarse there are others.  These are just a few thoughts.

Equis.  We have had some beautiful days along the Strait of Juan De Fuca.  We could do with a little more Sun now.  Havent been over to Victoria since a injured my left leg a month ago.  Miss that.  And had

to cancel our anual holiday in Hawaii. 

Trust you are all keeping well.  And my best to Farmboy if he is listening.

Regards Dave

Seems all about energy sinks (I like to think of these allegorically as ice cubes on a hot summers day that stay cold by draining heat from them) .

Tesla said “the” (or at least “a”) clue was the electrostatic oscillator, and hid many things right out in the open. The bifilar coil - and a nebulous application for it - is an interesting idea. Seems strange that a simple geometric change can amplify energy storage to such an extent.  (;-)

PM

And they can keep them.  There’s an item probably not high on anyone’s list of international trade prospects.  (Hmm, let’s see what these’ll fetch over there in…)

I think those bad boys are indiginous to Australia

or New Zealand somewhere down there.

Auric

To The Editor:

The June 16 Editorial Commentary indicated that paper money was not the problem concerning inflation creation. The editorial also indicated that the long absence of a gold standard was not the problem concerning the flare up of inflation. I disagree with this determination.

The original gold bugs (some of the Founding Fathers) had first hand experience with paper money and hyperinflation. In 1775, paper US Continentals were introduced and traded for one dollar in gold. In 1777, they were exchanged for twenty-five cents. By 1779, just 4 years after being issued, they were worth less than a penny. It was in 1779 that George Washington stated, “A wagon load of money will scarcely purchase a wagon load of provisions.”

The US Constitution was written in 1787 and took effect on June 21, 1788. The authors of the US Constitution had first hand experience with hyperinflation and wanted to avoid another hyperinflation. Section 10 of the US Constitution states “No State shall …. make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts….” The authors of the US Constitution clearly wanted to avoid over-issuance of paper currency that was not fully backed by gold and/or silver.

A gold standard provides a relief valve for poor economic policy. Without a gold standard, poor economic policy continues until a very unwelcome failure occurs.

Until 1971, President Nixon’s economic policy consisted of guns and butter. This economic policy of overspending was unsustainable and gold was flowing out of the US as a result. The gold standard was doing its job and providing a relief valve by gold flowing out of the US as a result of poor economic policies. To stop the outflow of gold, President Nixon basically stated that the dollar is no longer backed by gold and formally went off the gold standard. This was the easy way out rather than correcting the overspending problem.

Since we have formally been off the gold standard since 1971, there is no relief valve for poor economic policies. The imbalances continue to build. The derivative markets including the OTC markets are now on the order of 1 quadrillion dollars. The imbalances due to a lack of a gold standard are simply staggering.

We currently have the President of The United States, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the Treasury Secretary talking about a strong dollar. Under a gold standard, there is no need to try and talk up the dollar. If we had a strong and stable economic policy, the dollar would be strong without any verbal or official intervention. We now have the Treasury Secretary openly talking about official manipulation of the US dollar. This is ridiculous.

The next 10 years will most likely unfold as Ludvig Von Mises described as a “Crack Up Boom”. A very high level of inflation will occur on a worldwide basis due to the double digit increases in money supplies around the world. Investment in commodities during this period will make the 1970s seem tame. A gold standard could avoid this outcome.

Sincerely,
Paul Yusem

of the phylum Annelia, class Olygocaeta (sp?). They are either European or Canadian and some get up to 12″ or more in lenght. There a kind super worm.

….Who am I to doubt a guy from Missouri….hehe

…what a nite at the tent ….we got as much worm talk as we have rocket science

O.K., you win.  Ours certainly aren’t that big.  That’s gross.

Glad you showed up. I read through part of McCannertys web page

and couldn’t handle the italicsized ramblings. Maya, I think you give

this guy too much credit.

Auric

Now wait a minute, Fully, you’re not the only ones with big worms.  I’m from Missouri, home to all those wonderful Ozark streams, grew up with fishing uncles and a mother who taught us how to bait a hook very early on,  and we have some pretty big worms, too.  But it’s the big worms that we used to call night crawlers.  The little skinny squirmy ones were just worms.  The big fat ones, easily six to eight inches like your Dew worms,  were called night crawlers.  That’s the only distiction that I remember; big ones night crawlers, little ones worms.  But what do I know; I preferred Shannon Twin Spinners and Heddon Midget Digits.  Where’s a biologist when you need one?

More on silver…

Mirror, Mirror, on the wall,
Who’s the fairest of them all ?

Dear Bill
Your comments regarding the tightness of the silver market has prompted me to write to you and draw your attention to a little known (in Silver bug circles), but fast-growing and potentially disruptive large-scale application for the use of Silver that I have been following for the past few years.

It is a solar thermal technology (as opposed to solar photovoltaic) known as CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER or CSP for short. This application consists of using flat Silver-coated mirrors placed over large desert areas to reflect and concentrate the sun’s rays onto a single focal point in order to capture the energy and ultimately drive a turbine to produce electricity on a utility-sized scale. A variation on this theme is to use long curved mirrors to heat a liquid passing through a tube at the focal point of the mirror which is then subsequently used to again drive a turbine. Another variation uses parabolic mirrors to drive Stirling engines.

This is not a pie in the sky technology but an improved version of a simple and old technology that was first used by Archimedes over 2300 years ago to burn down Roman warships attacking his native City of Syracuse in Sicily.

The first application in contemporary times was built about 100 years ago in Egypt, with variations on this theme constructed during the last energy crisis of the 1970’s.

There are already large scale projects operating and under way in various countries such as Abu Dhabi, Algeria, Australia, Chile, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Spain, the US, and others. In fact the list is growing by the day. California alone has a dozen projects in the Mojave desert. This has attracted large investments from companies like Google, Chevron, Khosla Ventures, Idealab, PG&E, FPL and the ubiquitous Goldman Sachs. Leading companies that are driving this field foreword include Abengoa, Acciona Solar, Ausra, eSolar, Solar Millenium, Schott and others together with the world’s leading glass manufacturers such as Pilkington, PPG Industries, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Corning. So there are big players behind this.

The impact on the consumption of Silver is expected to be significant for the following reasons: the average amount of Silver used in producing these mirrors is about 1 gram per square meter. Each project requires SQUARE MILES of mirrors and each square mile would then need about 80,000 oz of Silver. Ausra’s David Mills calculated that in order to supply the United States’ total electricity needs with this non-polluting, renewable and low-cost electricity source, you would need a square of 92 miles on each side, that is, about 8500 square miles. This would require close to 680 million ounces of Silver. Europe would use similar numbers consisting of a square of 110 kilometers on each side as calculated by TREC’S www.trecers.net (Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation initiative) DESERTEC plan with mirrors installed in the Mediterranean countries and North Africa; but the fast-developing rest of the world including China, India, Africa, South America and Middle East would require multiples of that, translating into Billions of ounces of Silver.

No one expects these numbers to be reached overnight but in as much as the production infrastructure required is already in place and the technology relatively mature, the deployment, being a fairly simple assembly of prefabricated modules and installation exercise, could accelerate form here. That in turn would easily put pressure on existing Silver inventories (and it may have already started) as well as future production in competition with other new or growing industrial uses and investment demand.

There is no substitute to Silver in this application as the cheaper Aluminum mirrors cannot reflect the full spectrum of light that is required for the highest efficiency specifications that Silver can and does deliver.

I guess, then, that there is one safe and smart thing to do in view of the circumstances: Start Hoarding.

Best regards
DFK
P.S. For full disclosure, I own Silver but have no financial interest in any of the companies mentioned above.

June 17, 2008
Re: The [phony] price for what’s NOT AVAILABLE

Hello Bill,

I get a chuckle out of the KITCO website that shows pricing for precious metals.

online.kitco.com/bullion/

Today for example it shows:

*Kitco Gold Bar 1 oz (Currently out of Stock) $896.70

and

*Silver Eagle 1 oz (Currently out of Stock) $19.61

In other words, even though the item is NOT AVAILABLE, and you can’t buy it from us at any price because we don’t have any to sell, the price is still only $896.70 for a 1 oz. Gold Bar and only $19.61 for a Silver Eagle.

It reminds me of the (naked shorting) price/availability issues of silver on the COMEX or the price/availability of silver in the Silver ETF (Ted Butler’s latest). There is a [phony] price, which can be broadcasted around the world, but there is no availability of real merchandize at that phony price - perhaps not such a trivial inconsistency.
All the best,
Chris K

….Our Dew Worms are native to this area….at least thats what dad used to tell me..

….you all got red or trout worms….our worms are Big….stretched out they are like 6- 8 inches…

…Big Worm Big Fish

…Hey come to think of it you met my Dad the one time King of Dew Worms

Not for long….Italy France and Germany used to be Different Countries…..now they share he same Fiat….and voila…no borders ..

We live on a lake, 35 mlles long, and grow our own. It’s called a worm bed, full of humus and decaying leaves, grass cliippings, and other organics. They replicate themselves and produce many thousands a year to use to fish, or put into paper cups and sell at the marinas. Worm farming is the easiest critters to raise I ever tried. Sell them for 3.50 for a cup with about 50 in it. Crawfsh are very profitable too and in high demand. But those worms are reproducing machines.We sell large qantities to gardeners around here too. Worm wrangler, thats my game after my real job.