Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Interesting to see the Slow Stochs on GDM’s monthly chart now at the lowest and most oversold level since the start of the PM stocks Bull Market on 11/15/00.

Goodnight, everyone.

JBI

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

modzilla as your browser and see what happens.

I just want to add one more thing.  The earlier exchange (22:23) was addressed to you because you had just posted a chart on the relation between the price of oil and the price of gold.  This is an example  of the messenger, you in this case, appearing to be the target as though I was questioning you because you posted that item.  What I was really questioning was what I thought to be  the unexplained emphasis on gold/oil ratios in many postings  on Goldtent over the past few days and weeks.

It’s interesting that I have seen this a couple of times on Goldtent, where a poster has posted an item, with a URL link, and the poster gets questioned as if she or he were an advocate of the message posted in the link.  I guess one has to be careful about this, for the sake of keeping up straight-forward conversation on Goldtent.

Wishing you a pleasant weekend, and thank you for your informative daily postings.  Equiz.

Would appreciate any comments from you on what we’re seeing in the price of grains. Some think they are in the blowoff stage? I’m just frustrated with the rise in price of my Wheaties and other whole grain products I consume. Are you seeing any signs of a top. I’m thinking that even if they pull back significantly from here that they have already contributed to the general inflation that is already firmly embedded. TIA!

JBI

Never a need for you to apologize to JBI, friend. A real gentleman, you always are……..and your contributions to this forum are always appreciated.

JBI

Not exactly, but a bedroom community aka P.H. until a couple years ago.
W. Baum was our cross the road neighbor. Did a superb job totally rehabbing the old Nath place.

I’m sure Eagle Eye knows him.

oil price, gold price, and HUI price.  The only part I can understand in these interactive graphs is the period from November 2005 to the first week of May 2006 and the period from June 2007 to March 2008.  In those two periods, all three of them (POO, POG, and HUI) were going up in unison.  At all other times since February 1999 to the present, I cannot comprehend what the Saudis and US administration were doing with the relations between these three variables.

And I dont think it matters.  Cheers.  Equiz.

on the oil/gold or gold/oil ratio.  I buy physical gold or silver when they reach a purchase price at or below their 200-day moving average, and your mention of the 300 dma suggests to me that you employ a similar buying criterion also.  I think in that sense we are in the same boat.   Best wishes.  Equiz.

America’s Berlin Wall

June 20th, 2008 Via: Economist:

QUEUES of frustrated foreigners crowd many an American consulate around the world hoping to get into the United States. Less noticed are the heavily taxed American expatriates wanting to get out—by renouncing their citizenship.

In Hong Kong just now, they cannot. “Please note that this office cannot accept renunciation applications at this time,” the consulate’s website states. Apart from sounding like East Germany before the fall of the Berlin Wall, the closure is unfortunately timed. Because of pending legislation on President Bush’s desk that is expected to become law by June 16th, any American who wants to surrender his passport has only a few days to do so before facing an enormous penalty.

That penalty is buried in an innocuous piece of legislation with the veto-proof name, Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax (HEART) act. The new law means active American soldiers will benefit from tax relief. To pay for that, Congress has turned on expats, especially those who, since new tax laws in 2006, have become increasingly eager to give up their citizenship to escape the taxman.

Under the proposed legislation, expatriates surrendering their citizenship with a net worth of $2m or more, or a high income, will have to act as if they have sold all their worldwide assets at a fair market price. If the unrealised gains on these assets exceed $600,000, capital-gains tax will apply. A study by the Congressional Budget Office guesses that the new law will progressively net the government up to $286m over five years. It is unclear, however, why people would suffer the consequences if they did not expect to save money in the long run by escaping American taxes.

That expats want to leave at all is evidence of America’s odd tax system. Along with citizens of North Korea and a few other countries, Americans are taxed based on their citizenship, rather than where they live. So they usually pay twice—to their host country and the Internal Revenue Service. As this makes citizenship less palatable, Congress has erected large barriers to stop them jumping ship. In 1996 it forced people who renounced citizenship to continue paying income taxes for an extra ten years. Theoretically, the new law allows for a cleaner break.

But even as the law tries to prevent people from renouncing their citizenship, it may have the opposite effect. Under the new structure, it would make financial sense for any young American working overseas with a promising career to renounce his citizenship as early as possible, before his assets accumulate. For everyone else, plunging stock and property prices mean now may be as good a time as any to hand back the passport, says Kurt Rademacher, a partner at Withers, a global tax-planning firm.

In Hong Kong the temptation for Americans to switch citizenship is particularly strong, because of the territory’s low taxes. On the other hand, banks and other firms who want to hire Americans may find it harder to do so, even though greater China is one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. It places Americans in the awkward position of weighing their patriotism against their vocation.

stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?,,

posted from arabiamoney.net was front and centre on Michael Capmbell’s MoneyTalks radio show in Canada this morning.  But you know what MoneyTalks forgot to mention, for those of us who had this morning not yet read the Royal Bank of Scotland prediction of a major market slump in the months soon ahead, was the secondary message that this predicted chain of events would increase interest in investors funnelling some of their wealth to the small precious metals market.

Thanks for posting the article at 20:46.  If you are a new poster, welcome, and I’m sure Fullgoldcrown would be pleased if you indicated your base of interest in the Goldtent locator file.  Cheers.  Equiz.

Surely you don’t think I believe that GOLD is a hell of a buy here just because the GOLD:OIL ratio is so low. Do you? I bought another 10 1oz GOLD coins the other day when GOLD’s price came within just a few dollars of its 200 DMA and I really wasn’t thinking at all about the GOLD:OIL ratio. That ratio, along with the XAU:GOLD ratio and many many other indicators, often discussed here by many, are all important in making the case for GOLD, imo. Of course, you must know by now that, as a long term investor, my primary one is the 300 DMA. It hasn’t failed me yet. But I will always grasp at any valid “straw” available to encourage anyone to aggressively buy the PMs. For the record, though, you may want to carefully check out where the price of GOLD was the last time the GOLD:OIL ratio was this low and note what occurred afterwards. Just one of many many reasons, Equiz, to buy more and/or hold on tight to whatever physical one already owns.

As for what the Saudis and other governments may be doing or trying to do with the price of gold and/or oil, well, I’ll leave that to others. I rather try to listen to what the markets are telling me and act accordingly. I try to keep an open mind to the concerns of others who think that we may still see lower prices, but I’m still interpreting all that I’m seeing as extremely bullish for the PMs amd PM stocks.

And sorry, friend, but I cannot correct you in your thinking. I can only respect it and appreciate it.

Cheers!

JBI

….ie……..Short Oil Long Gold…in a sense

…………..when Gold /Oil Rises its good for the Miners

but down here winter started on 1st June.  Somehow the old dates of the seasons got lost, probably during metrication …

Anyhow, it’s a freezing 22C at the moment, I think it got down to 15C last night. 

Once again, your concern is appreciated.