Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

But he does not touch the heart of the reasons behind his decent description of two very different periods in financial history.  Inflation and deflation are exact opposites.  Stagflation is essentially an inflationary period with very weak economic conditions.

10 min delay

Ahhhh yeah ..thats what I meant to say..haaaa
Actually I am not laughing .. this crap has gotten quickly serious just since I got back to the states ther other day.
Get the horses ready on the wagon dear friend.

…..one small part I read.  Makes little difference, though, because the whole premise of deflation is completely negated at this time by the environment we are in.  Any thoughts of “deflationary environment” is a wet dream- just like it was in the 70’s when the market fell sharply.  A falling market does not cause a deflationary environment and did not do so in 1929, either.  The crucial differentiation falls in terms of the conditions of the currency which are today the exact opposite of the 1929 period.  End of story- end of argument- in the end the thought of deflation will be quite laughable.  So there…………smile.

 TQ, what were the primary causes/ conditions that allowed deflation to take hold in the 1929 period?  If you can identify those few factors, you’ll be at the heart of the matter.  I think this line of discussion is interesting, but I don’t see the depth of thought that I had expected.  I just see a lot of “symptoms” being tossed about as causes.   Yes, the general market is going to fall…..so what?  Everybody has known that for years.  Where have people chosen to park their investment dollars?  For Heaven’s sake, just about every writer out there is screaming “Deflation.”  If everybody is screaming deflation, but things are not deflating, what does that tell you?

  Baghdad Ben.

As to the fate of the developing U.S. great depression, it will encompass the fire of a hyperinflation, instead of the ice of deflation seen in the major U.S. depressions prior to World War II. What promises hyperinflation this time is the lack of monetary discipline formerly imposed on the system by the gold standard, and a Federal Reserve dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply and the implosion of the still, extremely over-leveraged domestic financial system.

The U.S. economy is in an intensifying inflationary recession that eventually will evolve into a hyperinflationary great depression. Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010, if not before, and likely no more than a decade down the road. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, and gross mismanagement.

www.shadowstats.com/article/292

The Weimar circumstance is closer to the current U.S. circumstance, although, in certain aspects, the current situation is worse. Unlike the untapped economic potential of the United States 140 years ago, today’s U.S. economy is languishing in the structural problems of the loss of its manufacturing base and a shift of domestic wealth offshore.

….so It didnt post…..BUT….One Fed Head….I’m not sure …Mishkin ?…Kohn…or some other one….said Emphatically….we must raise Interests rats ASAP !!

…thats amazing….what a slap at Bernanke for him to say that publiclly…

…looks like the hawks are circling the doves….Bernie will be out before we know it…?

….say..right after the Election…?

…anyone got a link to this ?

Naw won’t be any. Just crazy inflation. In the 30’s there was no money moving at all. Hardly anywhere. Almost all business was on skeleton crew. People didn’t have much before the mess started. Had less as the situation got worse. Prices of things were at rock bottom and still didn’t move off shelves.
We have money everywhere now and flooding back and forth between didferent sectors looking for quick profits. Ohh the money is there alright ..just because some stupid people can’t ATM there houses anymore does not mean we have deflation. If the money was not present the commodities would not be flying. We are being targeted in the PM,s for a purpose. Those in the money don’t want us to have an easy way out. This will pass as their greed takes over and they move to the metals. Naw inflation, and buckets of it, are in our future. No one give up, just don’t…we are on the right boat. I personally have staked my life on it in more ways than one.
Yer all the best people I have ever met ..just stay the damm course in stocks and fizz and get plan B.in motion .. hell we can have fun later. I have never been more sure that the game as we have known it IS OVER. It is ..admit it , get your things together, and be ready to move to higher ground.

Now trading at about $929.60, about $13 above today’s low around 10:00 AM, EDT.

And its 300 DMA rose again (a real shocker, huh?) and now sits at $806.46

Cheers!

JBI

….Did we strike a nerve ?

……Damn the cretins ….we will ride again !

You know your camping, thanks you for explaining. Bon soir.

“The Dollar’s Eight Year Slide Looks
Like It’s About To Get A Heck Of A Lot Worse!

“The supply of money in the U.S. is suddenly surging at an annualized growth rate of more than 16%. By some estimates, that’s the highest rate of growth in the money supply since 1971!

The scary part — things will only get worse …

* There is no way the U.S. dollar can hold its current value when fiat money is being created with abandon out of thin air.

* There is no way the U.S. dollar can hold its current value when the Fed refuses to raise interest rates … while other countries around the world are actively raising rates to bolster their currencies and put a damper on inflation.

* There is no way that the U.S. dollar can hold its current value when foreign economies are outgrowing the U.S. economy by miles.

*And there is absolutely no way that the U.S. dollar can hold its current value when so many overseas investors — who have lent Washington hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up the economy — are now waking up to the fact that holding dollar-denominated assets is a losing proposition.”

- complete editorial -> tinyurl.com/5l2wlh

~ ~ ~ ~

JBI

Here is what George wrote:

‘There’s an eerie historical echo to what’s going on now with the pre-crash period of 1928 and 1929.  A check of “A History of the Federal Reserve: 1913-1951, pages 233,234″ tells us that…

“Nevertheless, the annual rate of change [of the monetary base] remained between March 1928 to August 1928.  Long-term rates remained unchanged from the fall of 1928, but rates for new stock exchange loans increased almost three percentage points (to 8.9%) between August and December, the highest rate since 1920. “

‘We then read in the literature how in general, the Fed policies in 1928 and 1929 were deflationary in nature (raising rates) and that helped to set the stage for the [first so far, but wait a year] Great Depression.’

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Settin the stage is not causing.  There were other factors at work.

You are right about heat and snow.  And the fire too close could cause melt.  It depends on the cold.  If very cold, and a clear night can give that, a little fire with a foil reflector can help keep the head warm.  But then, so does a good wool cap, tuque, or fur hat etc.  You can wrap yourself in a tarp to keep the wet snow from soaking your sleeping bag etc.

The green wood is just small branches cut from a living tree.  Being green or ‘wet’ it is less likely to burn up in the first hours.  It is also easier to bend into shape, and to cut.  Dead wood is very hard and using a knife on it can lead to nasty accidents.  The green wood is used to make a frame for the aluminum foil reflector.  It can be used to meke frames for a tent.

A good knife has good steel; that means it can be sharpened and stays sharp a long time.  Some of the older knives are very good for that.  Newer ones can have too much molybdenum, and this can make them too hard, and they won’t sharpen unless you use a grinding wheel, then a file set, then the wet stones.

I once saw my father go into the bush and cut a two inch diameter sapling, it was poplar, in a couple of minutes with his four inch blade pocket knife.  Just sliced into it like it was butter.

Bonne nuit, belle etiole