Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Thank you both for the posts.  Old Lurker

Such is the way it seems to be  …. I will atempt to get beck to the idea …. if I ever get time for it

^^ BBLM

To all; we are experiencing panic in the financials this morning. Fannie and Freddie shares are off roughly 40% from last nights close. Lehman Bros has now lost 50% in the last 3 weeks. Remember 3 weeks ago Lehman did an equity financing at $28. That was supposed to solve all their problems, they would be able to stand upright going forward. They are trading at $13+ today. Such a deal!

The “Dow” has been softening but can’t be called a panic yet. However, since the U.S. has become a “paper pushing” ie. financial product economy, it is only a matter of time before the panic in financials spills over into everything else. I do believe we will see some sort of bailout of Fannie and Freddie, more than likely this weekend. The Fed and Treasury failed to stem this panic 2 weeks ago when they had at most a ghost of a chance. Bailout, bailout, bailout, that is all we are hearing today. These two mortgage entities are deemed “too big to fail”. I think they are TOO BIG TO SAVE! If the Fed and Treasury step in with a bailout, you will see the Dollar do a bungee jump with no chord. This “episode” will break the chart on the Dollar. There is not much more to say here other than unfortunately “game over”. Regards, Bill H….

Very important change today…

To all; we are experiencing a changing face in financial markets today. Yields on Treasuries are RISING! This is the first time yields have risen during stressful or panicky conditions in the stock market. I wrote late last year the “bell would ring” the day we saw panicky equities, a falling Dollar, AND falling Treasuries[rising yields]. In the past, yields ALWAYS dropped as people panicked into Treasuries as a “safe haven”. Today EVERYTHING is being sold. Everything paper that is. Oil, Gold, and Silver are rising sharply today. This means that as stocks, bonds, and Dollars are liquidated, they are finding a new home outside of the “paper game”. This is a very, very important change. Capital is exiting paper. No longer are the deck chairs on the Titanic being rearranged, passengers are jumping ship. If this continues into next week, the panic in the financials will spread into ALL things paper.

CNBC is blaming this financial panic on short sellers. Again, BULL! Short sellers do not have enough capital to tank the system. Fundamentals, and fundamentals alone are capable of creating a panic. Smart, big money, will step up and buy if asset values are, or get too low. Smart, big money, will not step in front of a freight train if fundamentals do not justify it. This is not short sellers, it is investors making the decision to exit paper. BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS. Regards, Bill H.

12:15 Former SEC Chairman Levitt says “clearly we are headed toward privatization” on FNM, FRE - Bloomberg
Headlines only. Levitt says shareholders are in “great jeopardy” and that FNM and FRE will be bailed by the government.
* * * * *

a) What EXACTLY is YOUR question .. Specific ..name it !!!

b) re:” i will make it … simple do you get any compensation for which you pay taxes ” … YES ..i was not properly instructed when I was young enough to learn

And YOU .. I assume are completely Devoid of The State … YES or NO ….. ( I doubt it { you being completely detached from The State } )

ICBW

2_point

If you can’t answer the questions, just change them to something else.  No problem, I do it all the time with my daughters.

From The King Report

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: BIS slams central banks, warns of worse crunch to come “The current market turmoil is without precedent in the postwar period. With a significant risk of recession in the US, compounded by sharply rising inflation in many countries, fears are building that the global economy might be at some kind of tipping point,” it said.

“These fears are not groundless. The magnitude of the problems yet to be faced could be much greater than many now perceive,” it said. “It is not impossible that the unwinding of the credit bubble could, after a temporary period of higher inflation, culminate in a deflation that might be hard to manage, all the more so given the high debt levels.”

Given the constraints under which the BIS must operate, this amounts to a warning that monetary overkill by the Fed, the Bank of England, and above all the European Central Bank could prove dangerous at this juncture.

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/30/ccbis130.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

John Williams debunks the notion that ‘inflation always ebbs during recession’. The severe downturn of 1973/1975 was accompanied by high inflation, per official CPI reporting, with annual inflation averaging 5.2% for the year leading up to the recession, 10.7% during the 16 months of the downturn, and 7.9% in the year following.

The next recession, from January through July 1980, saw even higher inflation, with annual CPI averaging 11.6% in the year leading up to the downturn, 14.3% during the six months of economic contraction, and 11.4% in the 12 months that followed, through to the onset of the next recession. This was a period that again saw significant oil price increases, near-double-digit annual growth in M3 and mixed dollar pressures. www.shadowstats.com…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The money tap turns off, leaving the world in short supply The money supply data from the US, Britain, and now Europe, has begun to flash warning signals of a potential crunch…

Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust, says lending by US commercial banks contracted at an annual rate of 9.14pc in the 13 weeks to June 18, the most violent reversal since the data series began in 1973. M2 money fell at a rate of 0.37pc.

“The money supply is crumbling in the US. There was a very sharp lending contraction in the second quarter lending. If the Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates now to defend the dollar, it would be checkmate for the US economy,” he said.

Leigh Skene from Lombard Street Research said the lending conditions in the US were now the worst since the Great Depression. “Credit liquidation has begun,” he said.

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/07/11/cnmoney111.xml

Ambrose echoes our view that the Fed, and the financial environment, is now similar to late 1931 – after two years of furious credit creation to stave off recession and financial calamities, a run on gold forced the Fed to halt its promiscuity for two quarters. Ambrose opines the difference now is that instead of a gold standard forcing the Fed to the sidelines, these days it’s an oil standard the encumbers the Fed.

Damian Reese: Rising tide of bad debts will flood over banks…

don’t ask me .. what goes through 2>> head on this ”

seems a rather simple question lol

seems to me that ” animals ” get along with each other better than ” humans ” seem to be able to do ………

The State is anti Individualism …

arbitrarily my opinion is ” do nothing which gives LIFE to The State ”

2_point ( the ment vs the state NOT )

The Ment LOVEs the state …. show it not Ment

Surely you would not be so foolish as to not want to increase your income to the point you would be paying a $million in taxes per year. I understand that many many people pay very little or no taxes and yet manage to get along just fine. Just fine may be good enough for some but not for me. Why should I not strive to make more money? Why should I mind paying more taxes if if make more? Why on God’s earth would I strive to earn less so I would pay less taxes?
The top 1% of earners pay 50% of the taxes paid to the Government. Like you I detest all the money the government wastes but I can not change that - but I can use my God given talent to make money and help others make money. I can even pay extra high taxes so some people don’t have to do the same.

Let us be clear, the more oil and gas I find and produce, the more average landowners I make rich or at least increase their income. Most wells send out monthly checks to over fifty people. Futhermore oil producers pay in addition to income tax - a production tax and huge School and county taxes that amount to about 10% of production. Also each well drilled provides jobs for many, many people: drilling crews, welders, roustabouts, construction crews, road builders, pipeline companies, various pipe and equiptment dealers and manufactors, timber cutters, landmen, title attorneys, truck drivers, tank gaugers-pumpers, accountants, tax collectors, and many others - all because some smart ass geologist said drill here and convenced a bunch of investors to put some money into an oil prospect instead of investing in the stock market.

Yes indeed I strive to pay more taxes each year rather than sit on my rear end! Now let us examime avoiding taxes: There are many illegal ways that I see executed each day but not by me. Many take cash deals and fail to report that cash as income. Many years ago I advised my accountants that in any gray areas, I choose to pay the extra tax rather than try to sneak something by. Why? Very simple, time spent on an audit is wasted time that I could have been making more money.

Audits? - I have been there, done that and it was a waste. Once the IRS chose me for a random complete audit and it went like this. An IRS accountant moved into my office and stayed five weeks, 8 hours every day using one of my full time secretaries to look up and find every income check and deposit and every check written, every invoice, every telephone bill, every lunch, entertainment expense, virtually everything - over a three year period. They even measured corals, counted cows, measured airplane hangers, log books, car mileage, computer records, all production records, grilled employes and things I didn’t even know about.
After five weeks what were the results? One day he left with no warning or goodby. Three weeks later I got a bill for $1200 that they figured I owed on some little something I had overlooked or mis-added!
Yes I pay taxes in so the government can send my money out in Bush rebate checks to everyone including some who pay zero taxes while I don’t get one because I made too much money. So be it!
Any more questions? Deadeye

re: ” in doing so are you a sponsor of the state ” YES

and MENT if an answer can be AnOther then YES please demonstrate How explicitly

you play the game or not, you believe in freedom of the Individual or NOT

no offence Ment to you ( altho I think U are wierd ) .. I am anti-State

arbitray of The State

My own bottom line is such that ” any State THEY offer, I am Anti it ”

2_point ( Ment_Likes_this_State )

…

I would like to add that your paragraph at the end, about food inflation is helpful too.  It got me to thinking that the food inflation as currently discussed in the media is an issue that would mislead people into thinking that the fundamental current issue is inflation.  Food inflation is not a valid way to describe currently rising food prices.   Inflation is an increase in the monetary base, and this can be due to lending by banks, using the fractional reserve system;  it can be caused by the pyramiding of debt using derivatives, as described by JSinclair.  This is where a small amount of money is used to control a large amount loaned, or loans packaged and sold that are used in term as collateral for other loans in the daisy chain method.

Rising food prices is not food inflation.  Food inflation would be an increase in the amount of food available, thus decreasing the value of food currently available.  This occurred during the latter part of the twentieth century as food production increased and food prices fell.  That was food inflation.

Now we have demand pushing up the price of food.  This demand comes from the ability of some to bid up the price.  Their ability to bid up the price has come from the monetary inflation and the food inflation [as described in the previous paragraph] of the past fifty years.

Here is a big deal. US interest rates are up substantially today, even as the US stock market is tanking. This is very significant in that it means…

*The US Government is hitting the wall with its ability to move interest rates down as inflation continues to rise, on a day when the market is brutalized. *Something dramatic has to occur over the weekend with Freddie and Fannie. No matter what they do it mean the US has to throw money at the problem, maybe from several different angles. As result, the US has a double whammy coming. Higher interest rates and a lower dollar. Investors can see this handwriting on the wall.

Brent crude was still at a premium to WTI, about 30 cents this morning. Crude oil closed the day at $145.08, up $3.43 per barrel, just short of its all-time high close. Noting the importance of that premium over the recent move would have keep traders in the market during the recent steep correction.
I caught as much of CNBC as I could today and did not hear GOLD mentioned one time in terms of commentary other than mentioning the price. NOTHING. The Muppets have a real surpise coming.

The CRB gained 3.94 to 462.86.

The yield on the 10 yr T note surged to 3.94%. The yield on the 2 yr note was up sharply too, rising to 2.59%.

if you were to sell a business for 6 mil.. you would pay 1 mill.in long term taxes . and would keep 5 mil ..

yes or no..

if you made 4 million in wages from a company, would you pay 1 million tax to keep the 3 million yes or no

if like deadeye you sold a couple oil leases for 3 million paid a million in tax .. eould you be happy, or happier if you sold an oil lease for 1 million and paid 333 thousand .. would you in that case be happy to pay the million.. you would have recieved 2 million instead of 666,000 .. which one is the most llucrative to you

you inherit a sizable estate, tax on this amount is 1 million . would you like to keep the remander 3 million yes or no..

in doing so are you a sponsor of the state

I would NOT like to pay 1 or more Million $ in taxes, and those which may like to do that ( in my opinion )are sponsor to The State

Deadeye has stated he would like to PAY suchly  …. somehow I must be confused ??????

2_point ( confused-Over_deadeye_statement )