Equiz 22:08

“Today we are blessed with a home location in Victoria that on clear winter nights allows us to see from our deck, across the Strait Of Georgia, the ski-lift lights on Grouse Mountain and Cypress Bowl.”

Whoa, sounds magnificent Equiz.

You could be right about sub 900 now that everything is tickety-boo again in lala land. Maybe you’ll pick up that Panda you were liking for your sweetie. Ditto for me on the phys silver .. Cheers to you, AuGirl

Ah, so “It is Now”, really means in six years’ time.

Glad we got that cleared up!

Housing legislation — even worse than you think

July 23rd, 2008

The housing bill in Congress — which has now morphed into a housing-and-Fannie/Freddie-rescue bill — appears likely to become law within days.

The president has dropped his objection to $3.9 billion in largesse to city and state governments to dole out to favored constituencies in exchange for the assurance of a blank check for Fannie and Freddie.  So everybody wins — except the taxpayer/dollar holder.

But wait — it gets worse.  It’s not only a boondoggle, it’s a major-league privacy threat. 

Two egregious provisions of the bill haven’t gotten a lot of coverage, especially since Fannie and Freddie got thrown into the mix, but I assume they’ll end up in the final version of the bill: 1) Nearly all credit-card transactions will be tracked and reported to the IRS and 2) Many people in the mortgage and real estate industries must submit to a mandatory fingerprint registry.

http://www.dailyreckoning.us:80/blog/?p=841

Here is a picture of the USD rally…….

It is so anemic I think we should just call it an “ally.”  This move by the Dollar created the waterfall decline by the PM sector?  If so, then just wait till it fails…………

dollardollar072308.GIF

1974

called for 900 gold

Eventually the price of gold will seek a price such that the price of gold in USD times the amount of gold held by the US Treasury will equal the foreign external liabilities, thereby balancing the external balance sheet of the USA.” This was said,

written and advertised in Barrons in 1974 by Jim Sinclair

when looking for $900 per ounce by the first quarter of 1980.

even before many of todays pundents could read .. or walk.. lol

opps was off 13 bucks ..

PMF, 1930’s gold miners,

check out when they took off.  I think it was after the Fed devalued the USD to $35/oz.  That gave the miners a straight increase in profit of $15/oz.

POPnoBOP

Your Italian hide away sounded perfect. Wouldn’t it be great to create or find a place like that in Oz. It sounds like you’ve set yourself up well, good on you.

LP.

PMF, 22:23, I think insurance is a better term than asset.

If it does become an asset on someone’s books, that is only because it tis a liability on someone else’s, hence the net zero value.  Someone pays a premium (the cost of taking out the derivative) for the certainty of minimising a loss, or crystallising a liability.  Although it can become an asset, it stands to reason that when I make $1m on a FOREX contract, someone, somewhere, has lost $1m.

But the effect on liquidity is significant.  If you can show that you have no FOREX risk on a series of transactions, or that you have protection against rising interest rates on your loans, then you are a much better risk for additional loans.  Which is why I say that the deris have affectd the M3, although I don’t believe that they are an integral component of it.  Therefore, if deri writing falls, I think M3 will fall too.  Although the cause and effect may be the other way around, falling M3 (fewer loans being created) could be the cause for falling deri volumes.

LP……….Can you show me a deflationary period of time…

….when the price of Gold  rose?

It seems to me that in a true deflationary period- everything is sold- one sells whatever he has to sell.

We do know that in the deflationary period in 1929, the PM stocks rose while Gold was steady.  So, are you suggesting that during the deflationary crash period of 1929 that there was more liquidity available for mining companies than there is today?

———————————

PMFEVER catch it if you can @ 22:17 pm

by LP. @ 22:51 pm.

2003 was a long time ago in this gold bull.

I’ve never said that gold will rise “handily in a true period of Deflation” Personally I don’t think it will except in certain overvalued currencies like the NZ & Oz.

But what I do believe is gold is liquidity, the only ‘true’ money and in a deflationary scenario virtually everything will be falling in value relative to gold. I do not look at gold relative to a currency but relative to its purchasing power.

You look at “reserves in the ground”, I look at financing to get the reserves out of the ground in the greatest credit crisis since the 30s!

Jim Sinclair for Wed.

Posted On: Wednesday, July 23, 2008, 10:23:00 PM EST

The Normalcy Of Violence In Gold



     Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

I apologize for the late email and postings, but corporate responsibilities took up the day. I had an important meeting in the Sharon, CT office today.

My job here on www.JSMineset.com is to speak my opinion on a daily basis to the substance of gold as a certain medium of insurance against the unstoppable forces of a financial system that is broken.

Dan speaks as a man who supports himself and his family by trading markets.

Dan uses charts to make his point, but please do not assume that just because he charts a gold share for you that he is making any specific recommendation of investment in that issue.

I have been asked if the gold securities that Dan charts are his favorites. The answer is hell no. They are simply situations from different groups within the definition of gold shares.

Now let?s look at today?s gold market. My take is that today was nothing new. Gold is a currency. It reacts in a direct relationship now to the euro. All other ingredients that are assumed to create the gold price work into the dollar vs. euro relationship.

Because of this we could and many are tonight writing tomes on energy prices, the equity market, interest rates and other commodities.

I like simplicity. That means I look At THE EURO TO KNOW WHAT THE GOLD PRICE IS DOING AS THE DISTILLENT OF EVERY OTHER FACTOR OUT THERE.

Reactions happen in every market. When it comes to gold violence is its name.

This is a forced reaction because when the euro hit $1.5980 the panic alarm sounded in the dollar vs. euro relationship. A freefall was destined to occur.

Crude to gold works only via its impact on the dollar vs. euro action.

If we must speak about crude it is a black box barf reaction, and not the end of a major bull. The worst-case scenario under $125 is major, major buying interest that will wait for $110 to $115, but not for long before it steps up.

Nothing has changed fundamentally for the key element in gold, the dollar. The panic alarm went off as the dollar threatened a free fall. The greatest show on earth went to maximum TV exposure at maximum volume. The margin traders bailed and the rest of the public gamblers were sold out the next day in commodities.

Nothing whatsoever has changed. Gold is headed to $1200 this year and $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. The euro will trade above $1.60 on its way to $2 plus.

Gold buyers now are at $910 to $915 and they will move up if not satisfied this week. My next buy is at $912.

The odds do not favor a gold price under $900.

I have traded gold backwards to how you should do if speculating in general commodities. In gold I have bought every reaction in a stepladder fashion, selling exactly the same way. It has worked ever time even though I have seen my life pass through my eyes on a few occasions.

The only selling that should be done is if you approach a margin call. Cover the call yourself before the session close. Do not wait for a margin call, and once you have covered, stay away from margin! If you have upcoming other needs for your funds, make sure you have completed the necessary actions to deal with them.

Other than margin or other financial needs, jump back into the hole we dug years ago, pull the same rock over your head and peak out in a week to see where we are.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Ferret………….I am not sure if this makes sense, but…

I was thinking in terms of derivatives as “insurance.”  If one has a derivative of one sort or another backing an asset, is it possible an asset can be further leveraged under certain situations. 

The other part would be about a derivative as “money.”  For instance, by design a derivative is technically an “asset”, I presume.  But, when one takes out a loan, credit is issued and the debt becomes an asset.  Is it possible that once sliced and diced a mortgage could yield more assets to leverage than a completely packaged loan in itself?  For instance, an original mortgage holds the value of the appraisal of the property, but once sliced and diced there is the “value of the property” separated from the “value of the income stream?”  Sorry, I know I am reaching……………..but once one starts splitting up a nucleus into particles………….who knows what happens……….

this lifted my spirits and soon a bit of ore as well…

kcnequip.jpg

some of the new CAT equipment kept in mothballs in Bangkok awaiting lease approvals….approved….so start diggin KCN.ax

http://www.kingsgate.com.au/

(disclosure - I own a few)

CAT maybe one US firm doing well?

PMFEVER catch it if you can @ 22:17 pm

2003 was a long time ago in this gold bull.

I’ve never said that gold will rise “handily in a true period of Deflation” Personally I don’t think it will except in certain overvalued currencies like the NZ & Oz.

But what I do believe is, gold is liquidity, the only ‘true’ money and in a deflationary scenario virtually everything will be falling in value relative to gold. I do not look at gold relative to a currency but relative to its purchasing power.

You look at “reserves in the ground”, I look at financing to get the reserves out of the ground in the greatest credit crisis since the 30s!

Sengfarmer…..how did it go?

I sure would appreciate some advice
-> Posted by sengfarmer @ 13:15 pm on July 23, 2008
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Used stock certificates myself years back.
Bank held them — and I’d put the batch in a Div Reinvestment plan prior to turning them over. Not sure how it works today, but ‘then’, they gave me a low interest loan around 5% for circa 50-60% of Stock Certificate face value.

Doubt if there are any who do that in these times.

So what happened in your transaction????? –
just to learn how these kind of transaction are going down in 2008.

PM Fever….no no …Grin posted earlier he would stop posting charts

…understandibly down today…

…i just wanted to share what you once told me….to lift his spirits….

,,,,i’m sure you just did…..