Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

 are you privvy to some other info on WM that has not been posted?

  I’l say this, if WM shuts their doors Monday, chaos will ensue.

  No question. Keeps an element watching, waiting and distracted. More often than not though, when in major media, most anyone with this message has been scorned, discredited, or laughed at.

   Similar to the way some present day financial greats like Schiff, Sinclair, et al. have been scorned. Made out to be chicken little’s, etc.

www.zealllc.com/2008/pmdold.htm

did you read fgc’s post about wamu. i didn’t want to break the ice here but rumors are flying thick and fast. there’s a lot of smoke so the fire will be very visible soon. if it doesn’t get closed in the morning, monday morning may be the demand deposit run. my mother (age 89) is extremely nervous about the system and asked me and my brother to start checking out her banking and insurance companies. the rating agencies have them rated as excellent but how can you trust anyone anymore who receives compensation for their ratings?

if oil and gas industries are hit by a credit crunch, a financial bloodbath will ensue in oklahoma, texas, and louisiana. the last time it happened, it was roll up the sidewalks and bring in the spitoons. a big independent oil company closed yesterday in tulsa. probably several more in their shadows. it only takes a few players among the independents to bring down the whole system. then the majors pick up the crumbs for nothing.

our yen may run hard sunday evening.

rno

but suppose this really just turns into each trying to make money?

aurum

The criteria to consider for the selection of a precious metals junior is as follows:

1. Management ethics, found out by checking litigation, criminal and credit records. All this information is now easily attainable.
2. A property or properties with outstanding upside promise sustained supporting data.
3. History of success both on the ground (properties to mines) and in the financial markets (stock performances of at least 10 to 1 value).
4. Strong hands on board
5. Key man insurance
6. Order of succession in place.
7. No anti-takeover devices written into the indenture of your certificate.
8. Availability of knowledgeable person in the company to speak with.
9. You retain a property-qualified geologist to perform a desk review of all exploration, development and production information at company headquarters.
10. A property visit by this consultant if the position is to be of significance.
11. The company has access to financing.
12. The company has used financial restraint, therein having control over insider options, preferably none.
13. The company has no warrants outstanding.
14. A significant short position at this time is highly desirable.
15. The market must be liquid so therefore some respectable listing is preferable.
16. Preferably not listed on the Frankfurt Bremen Exchange.
17. Key executive and board members hold a reasonable amount of shares.
18. Goodly number of stockholders.
19. Owned by but not primarily owned by some respected fund interest.
20. Preferably not in any index.
21. The company has a good Sarbanes Oxley program with financial checks and balances.
22. Audited by a respectable firm with special attention to who does the subsidiary audits if offshore to the venue of incorporation and trading.

   Could very well be meant to distract Joe Sixpack from the Congressional Criminal activity.

   I guess I’d just wonder if Joe Six was already too distracted by reality TV to pay attention to either event.

steer me in the right direction.

aurum

  Well, I doubt if this NAB thing is really the catalyst that there are too many folks in this tent of ours that aren’t positioned for that event.

    Some of us might even be reduced to praying for it.

   Just don’t want to hold my breath over the weekend. I’ve seen the lizards squirm out of every mess so far relatively unscathed.

“If you unpost because you realize you were harsh - I have done that. But as far as trading ideas or opinions - that record should stay but you can amend it any time.

aurum”

this I wish you all would make a rule of honor here.

aurum

Watch the hearing today at 10..if you have a DVR or video machine may want to record it. Lets see how many mainstream news/talk shows even mention it..So much for our media watch dog..it died years ago.

WRH: This may be the reason for the flood of corporate media “puff” (like the UFO crap) these last few days; to try to trick people into forgetting that the hearings were even happening.

  Your post didn’t go unnoticed.

  Corso was a rock who never wavered, and it in fact nearly ruined his family.

   Resistance to what folks like Corso have brought forward seems simple. If true, it would be a shock to their perception of reality, of what they’ve been taught and told, whether about history, religion or government.

  So we wait.

I swim in the Atlantic most days. I don’t go out as far as I used to. Don’t analyze but I liked to swim into the Moon Rise on nights very far into the ocean.

I am not that good of a swimmer anymore and we have had shark attacks and late evening as that is their buffet time. So my habits have changed.

But I swim and body surf. Riding a wave in your mind is free.

aurum

New Zealand checking in…

Hi Bill:

I’m surprised no one has commented on the takeover of Aurelian Resources by Kinross. In my opinion this is extremely important news and good news at that.

I’ve been waiting for two things: First, Gold must take out it’s March high to prove to gold bashers that the bull market is not over. Second, the majors must start to buy the juniors. We got very close to the old high ten days ago and at a seasonally weak point in the calendar. And today I think we got a taste of what’s got to happen with the juniors.

Recall that the collapse in the juniors has a lot to do with start up costs, botched startups, and unfriendly mining jurisdictions. NovaGold began the junior collapse last year with their updated study indicating mining construction costs are soaring. And over the past year we’ve had government moves against Miners in Ecuador (Aurelian), Venezuela (Crystallex and Gold Reserve), French Guyana (Iamgold), Bulgaria (Dundee Precious Metals) etc, etc The list is long.

It was the Aurelian share price collapse in March that began the latest junior slaughter. So today’s takeover offer of a very cheap junior in a risky country is bound to get the sharp pencils out.

The majors on the other hand have been reaping the rewards of the dramatically higher Gold Price.

They do so in several ways. First, the $300/oz year over year increase has allowed exploitation of previously uneconomic sections of the ore body. This has led to reports of misunderstood lower grades. Yes, grades are lower but not because the higher grades aren’t there. They’ve just been saved for later. The mine life is thereby extended. Every quarter of this windfall low grade mining extends the mine life by an equal amount of time.

Second, the financial position of the major is enhanced. Goldcorp, for example, is profitable at $650/oz. An extra $300/oz times 2 million+ ounces over 12 months starts to add up to the market cap of some very promising juniors. Look, for example, at Minefinders today closing at C$9.60. Market cap now under $500 million. It’s earning per share next year will probably match Goldcorp’s yet it is trading at a quarter Goldcorp’s close today and less than 20% of its close two weeks ago.

As is usual with Gold mining takeovers the share price of the acquiring company suffers badly. Kinross fell 10% today effectively allowing new buyers of the stock to get the acquisition for free.

That is, the loss in Kinross market cap today exceeded the cost of the takeover. If Kinross can convince the government and people of Ecuador that the Aurelian project is to their advantage then the company’s shareholders will benefit handsomely by today’s announcement. And the fact that Kinross did the deal will boost confidence in the whole junior sector.

Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener

More on that score…

Pan Am Silver on acquisition trail

TORONTO, July 25 (Reuters) - Pan American Silver Corp is on the hunt for development-stage acquisitions and expects to announce a transaction by the end of the year, the company’s chief executive said on Friday.

In an interview, Geoff Burns said tight credit conditions have dried up financing for small players, meaning many are now seeking participation from established miners.

“There are a number of good opportunities out there that, because of the recent volatility in the market, valuations have really turned in our favor,” he said.

“I’m pretty confident that you’ll hear something from us before the end of the year.”…

-END-

At the same time, I spoke to one of the savviest men in the industry and he is disgusted that companies with “crappy” paper, like Kinross, can take out an Aurelian so cheaply.

I know that has been my concern with ECU Silver (my largest holding), which may have the biggest silver mine (silver equivalent resources) in the world. If a major wanted to move in, they might be able to steal it for a song and a dance, IF they could persuade enough of the shareholders to sell. Word to me is that 50% of the stock is in strong hands, but who knows.