Loading ...this next wheat crop is going into the ground with the price at breakeven for most producers. will they attempt to skimp on fertilizer or will they really “bet on the come”. remember what happened after the russian wheat deal of the 1970’s? i think the next 12 months may be “make or break” on the farm. the markets for all commodities is really getting wacky.
rno
I think at the end of this correction that we are headed for one of the most beautiful 5th waves of this PM bull, yet. I have asked Fully to post the charts of Adrian’s Tocom shorts for a longtime, looking for them to cover into the bottom………..then to start to reassert the shorts on the way back up. It looks pretty classic to me, but will not go to zero, IMO.
I have had a target out for Gold in 2008 that came with the 2005 work, but with the overshoot on the last run, we might bet a spike higher than that. Ditto with Silver, the previous target was 26/27, but will now likely be around 32……with the possibility of a spike higher. Call options, IMO, yes. I think we are now in an area where call options can be more easily utilized- something like fish in a barrel.
And it fits very well with the CLL.TO chart that led it out of the similar bottom in the last cycle so I bought the bottom. Also, fits very well with the early stage of the 5th wave for Silver from the same last cycle. If you plot a chart of BQI against chart of GG- they are trading almost exactly step-for step, and as Sabre has noted, GG has been leading the way.
This is not a perfect chart, but can be used to compare the “cycles.” Look at the black arrows in the Silver chart showing the similar steep correction “last time” versus today. Look at the similarites in the charts of GG and BQI, except for GG had a “running correction” at the right edge of the blue to the right where BQI traded down in an “A, B, C.” Then, look at the rolling over correction in CLL just completed………….last time in the red it did the same thing, then went vertical while BQI lagged it. That is probably because CLL is a producer where BQI is an explorer and went vertical along with the PM explorers into the 5th wave in Silver as resources were revalued higher. IMO, the set-up looks perfect for Silver to be mostly “up” for months into the 5th wave top. Also note that “this cycle” is “longer in time”……..one Elliot Wave degree higher.
Beerlao Lager
Beerlao original
5% Alc./Vol.
* Pint 24 X 330 ml
* Canned 24X 330 ml
* Quart 12X 640 ml
Beerlao Light
Beerlao Light
2.9%Alc./Vol
Pint 24×330ml
Beerlao Dark
Beerlao Dark
6.5%Alc./Vol
Pint 24×330ml
Pilsner Urquel has always been a favorite……..but not the imported kind.
As memory recalls, the European version was more powerful than wine ……..
What say?
Fully, that post of yours regarding the Goldman short covering is most interesting as it ties into the JS (and others) predictions of $1,200.00 Gold in 2008.
Perhaps we all may want to consider some January call options on some of the big boys, ABX, GG, AEM, NEM.
Of course, we need first to put this now impending bottom to bed but, after what we have all been through maybe it’s time to roll the dice and go for it big time. Hmmm.
when he states on his website that “The assumption that the West runs the East was made at the ‘Stupid Factory of Egocentric Xenophobia’.
I do suspect that he has a point there, as the phony set-up about the U.S. dollar being the world’s “reserve currency” comes to be increasingly realized around the world as a sham that cannot be sustained. That this realization is underway is indicated by the Sinclair notation that the East will buy any gold that the West is silly enough to dump on the market.
I wonder if administrations and central banks and investors in the U.S., Britain, Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will smarten up someday about the role of precious metals reserves in global affairs.
Equiz.
That’s a very nice bullish engulfing candle in BQI today.
If you like paying interest rates on you credit card.
thanks for clarification
and for the other things ..
Looks like Gold is ready to rumble to me………over the intermediate term. That will keep Gold on par with the 70’s Bull.
If you are ever in North Florida, email me or post and you are welcome here. We will have black and tans on the beach. You know though black and tan is not friendly to the Irish and consequently why the drink is not popular there. I drink it because I like the taste and try not to get involved in the historic aspect.
aurum
from wiki:
The term Black and Tans (Irish: Dúchrónaigh) refers to the Royal Irish Constabulary Reserve Force (Fórsa Chúltaca Chonstáblacht Ríoga na hÉireann), which was one of two paramilitary forces employed by the Royal Irish Constabulary from 1920 to 1921, to suppress revolution in Ireland. Although it was established to target the Irish Republican Army, it became notorious through its numerous attacks on the Irish civilian population.
some things plus a side trip to Salmon River in Idaho to an old boyhood haunt. Will make Tennessee next springs when the dogwoods are blooming. Deadeye
Bill,
STUNNING REVELATION FROM GS TOCOM POSITION
In the July 29 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED a substantial 233 short contracts to bring their net short position to 5600 contracts. This brings their net short position to the LOWEST EVER in the last 30 months (the time I have been keeping records). The chart below is astonishing. There is almost a perfect descending trend channel in the net short position of Goldman Sachs which it has followed for over two years so it can hardly be called a coincidence. If this trend continues then the very latest that GS can reach a net short position of zero is when the top trend line meets the X axis. That extrapolates to November 25 2008!! Now isn’t that amazing? That is almost exactly the same date as the expiry of the MASSIVE COMEX Call option position in the DEC08 contract. I had already predicted from the Call option structure that gold will make a huge move sometime between now and the expiry of these options. We now have further confirmation because it looks as if Goldman Sachs will no longer be net short gold by that date!
( Chart wont download )…FGC
Cheers
Adrian