butters (22:48) I think POG had a big monthly drop because

THE  US DOLLAR IS STRONG.  I put that in caps because that is what is declared by persons in the US administration who have the authority to declare that, and who also have the authority to take steps to make the US dollar strong.  They have help too from various foreign central banks and from various foreign money pools involved in trade with U.S.A. who collectively are invested in U.S.-based entities (rather than in physical gold) and I think that all of this together helps to keep the U.S. dollar strong and the price of gold lower than it might otherwise be in a non-manipulated market.

But I dont know if any of the above is true.  I just read it somewhere.  So it is just my own uncritical judgement and opinion and conclusion .  Please correct my opinions if they seem off course. 

Cheers. Equiz.

tq 20:52, I wouldn’t use brake oil. It’s hygroscopic, that is, it attracts water,

and will cause any steel parts it comes into contact with to rust.  WD40 or a silicon grease aerosol would be my starting point.

FGC and Aurum

Platinum - where to from here?  It definitely looks like it should bounce here - perhaps up to where Aurum mentioned at 1700 - but I would not give in any more upside then that - over the next 2-4 months.  Wherever it goes, it’s an opportunity for longs to unload.  I don’t think the ultimate lows are in for this correction.  I don’t like the moves that come on the flip side of these types of parabolic rises.  Fully you can say gold didn’t go parabolic, but I would look at the commodity sector as a whole.  These birds tend to fly together. 

Parabolic moves can go a lot further either direction then we can imagine.  PMs did their job and peaked before the commodity sector as a whole which did an extended fifth wave between April and June this year IMO.  This CCI/CRB move was a classic zig when it should have zagged type of head fake that probably kept a whole lot more PM bulls in the game, sucked in new commodity bagholders and was a classic short squeeze for anybody that tried to short energy in general.  Once the energy shorts were exhausted, the correction started in July..at least that’s my take.

cci_bull.png

Oil was one of the last holdouts.  I think I see similarities in the massive moves up between the Shanghai exchange that of oil’s.  You can bet those guys that bought the $SSEC late last year on ‘the dip’ are feeling like real dipshites right now.

oil-2yrs.png   ??? —>  ssec-2yrs.png

soee @ 20:02 pm on August 31, 2008

Still for the trader this chart could be played long to at least 1700 maybe more.

aurum

FGC - Good point.

And why did Gold have the biggest drop in 25 years this month?

Butters..that looks nasty…wonder why the Nat gas Futures are Down tonite ?


Here it comes.

hiusa.gif

a little from Ron Paul

In Government We Trust? Part 1

Many who agree with me on a lot of other issues, do not understand my enthusiasm for gold and sound money or why I spend so much time studying and talking about monetary policy. It’s true that I talk about money differently than most, but the fact is sound money offers many benefits. For example – peace.

Can sound money really bring about peace? Actually, it plays a big part in peaceful international relationships. Money based on commodities, rather than paper, is not subject to government manipulation, and is a key component to free and honest trade. History shows that if countries engage in trade with each other, their governments tend to find ways to get along for the same reason you do not kill your customers at your place of business, even if they occasionally annoy you. If someone outright cheats you, however, you may engage in “war” by taking them to court, for example, and the relationship will sour. Governments and central banks with unfettered power to manipulate currency also have the ability to cheat their creditors. One way they do this is to simply create enough currency to pay off debts. This devalues the currency and “cheats” the recipient out of what they are owed. It would not be fair if you watered down your product the way our government waters down its currency, so it is not hard to understand, in these simplified terms, why loose monetary policy contributes so much to ill will and war around the world.

Sound money, on the other hand, simply is what it is. Removing governmental power to manipulate money, removes the temptation for government to spend, print and cheat. Sound money ensures that our government’s spending priorities would be brought into sharp focus and reduced to only what we can afford.

Sound money also limits the ability to wage wars of aggression. Imagine how much more careful Washington would have to be about starting a war if they did not have this financial sleight of hand at their disposal! Fiat currency allows government do expensive things they should not be doing while paying the bills with cheap money. The Federal Reserve has lately been auctioning off large amounts of treasury bills as a way to finance the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and our crushing entitlement burden. The resulting devaluation of the dollar is quickly eroding our image as a good trading partner in the world. As a consequence, there is therefore more talk of economic isolation and war.

This vicious cycle of spending, fighting and inflating is not what Americans want. It is what the government wants, and it has had to deceive the citizens into allowing and supporting it. Sound money curbs the government’s ability to engage in these shenanigans and reduces the wars we fight to only truly defensive ones, for which Americans are more than willing to stand and fight. So in these ways, sound money is very conducive to peace.

http://www.dailypaul.com/

GOLD:PLAT…..

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=:&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51520856145

Boing !

Parabolas ?…Oil yes ….Platinum yes…. Gold..not yet

….Put the cursor over the left magin of the 200 box…and drag it back all the way to Jan 2000

stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?,,

I want my Gold Parabola..and I want it NOW !

RNO..thanks for the email adresse…I already have learned quite a bit

….will file it and bug you later….not looking to tade the agriculturals….just looking for a sense of where commodities in general are….a big breather here…like SOEE et al say.or onward and upward…
?
…its good to see markets that are still ruled by fundamentals..as fickle as they may be….as you know PMs ae ruled by Cretanic Law !

….Thanks for the great stuff you bring

Bears..

Gold topped in Mid March…

Oil Topped in Mid July…

….4 months later

…..could the bottom in Gold be in…while Oil Drops for another 4 months after a b rise here ?

fgc

with agricultural commodities, you always have to look at the underlying fundamentals. wheat is an excellent example at present. the carryover is extremely low but a record crop is in progress. any change in fundamentals will send wheat soaring or crashing. lots of corn was planted late because it was flooded out the first time. if frost comes at the regular time, approximately 350 million bushels will be lost. i haven’t been in the grains for a while because they margins are very high now. i started to get in the rice before hurricane season but just never got around because i was fooling around in the currencies.

the grains will be extremely volatile until the growing season is further along. way too much for my little account. crop scares will come every week. if you get in, it’s nearly impossible to define a reasonable risk to reward ratio. the rpw gives you a way to trade anything with a pre determined risk but sometimes the risk is unacceptable. you can email me jtate11 at cox dot net if you want a more detailed summary.

rno

Grasping at Straws….Look at the COT in OIL

…I know that whenever the Commercials in Gold get more long..and the Specs less long….its bullish for gold….as the Specs can be squeezed…

….is that valid for Oil ?

www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/CL.png

SOEE…Great call on Platinum on Feb 12th

….now that we have seen 1300….what next…?…..back to the top of the Channel ?