Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I took a quick look at his 10 stocks posted. A few I am not familiar with. I will respond to your question in the next few days - I would not sell anything until we have seen the next bounce so there is time. There are some such as SLW that I might keep. Well getting ahead of myself. I would like to see which do not rally with HUI on the bounce. Then the next question is - how much pain can you take and how much confidence do you have in each stock? Really I think Rambus did make all those points already. But something he did not mention and is a place I have been and not fun - what if these stocks or some of them turn out to be laggards when we get to the next rally?

aurum

I trade most markets most of the time. No, I did not get into the pm’s at the lows. I was late to realize that there was not going to be a 1929 type event (although you could call the NASDAQ one) with a decade of grief afterwards. I was late to realize we had passed from a deflationary long cycle to an inflationary long cycle. But I did get into the pm’s with enough money early enough to do well. I traded a few times here and there. Those were mentioned on the other board and I put a list of my stocks when I bought or added on IMDB here when this board started - the record is still there. But the most important things I did were to get out of juniors timely and to get out of all pm’s timely to preserve those gains (except for physical which I will hold into the 2030’s - or my heir will - I have left instructions). I have 30% at least now in cash (as you know I am a bull on several other markets so there is money there - but no need to talk about those now) and so am in a good position to jump in anywhere when I feel like it. I scale out of positions and I do have a small amount of GDX that I did not move the scaling fast enough another timing error.

Tomorrow, I am going to repost the entire post from Rambus. He knows what he is doing and he knows what is likely to happen. I agree entirely with the post. I had argued with him much earlier this year saying I thought wave 2 was coming - he did not agree then - but now we are on the same page. In October in Georgia, I had said that I had exited all my juniors - you may have taken that as being bearish - it was on the juniors. Or you may recall the waterfall metaphor - that I could hear the waterfall approaching and I would scale out early in 2008. Yes I exited some positions too soon - but I am always trying to improve my timing. But as I said, wave 2’s are usually sharp and brutal - and you must be early or be trapped.

aurum

I don’t know if it will go straight down either. We may have some small rallies in at least some stocks, but probably not finished with a total correction. After signs of a bottom we could, less sudden inflation or other factors, go in a sideways motion for yr. or longer. One thing for sure though, well until reciently, gold will follow oil, and oil will have future problems in the yrs. to come. Another thing I will be looking at. Polly is there any small machine that can detect how much gold there is in a piece of jewlrey? I have a weight machine that does cwt too, but can’t find a percentage machine or is that a stupid question? Anyways, I look at this correction as a good time to accumulate, esp. the physicals, but even though this correction is disheartening.

I simply asked if you would want to sell now at this point in time, and if he was a long-term holder who did not trade, if it would be advisable to sell, now, at this time. ( I believe Deadeye just voiced the same concern.)  And don’t go pointing your finger at me, hotshot.  I have always advised that investors need to consider the different movement of the different subsectors if they are going to invest.  The explorers move in sharp upward jerks when the market revalues reserves higher.  If we are in an early 5 of 5, then that will be very soon for one of those moves, but the biggest moves for the explorers will come in the most parbolic part of this huge 5th wave when investors learn Gold Bulls are not about earnings, but reserves………

I greatly appreciate your charts and perspective of different potentials, up and down.  Also, I completely agree with your 23:21 post, regarding blame.

Now, taking FGC’s line of thinking, does this weekly HUI chart of yours give us a glimmer of hope for a turn-around soon?

good one….in my case I am wearing an empty cardboard case of Labatt’s Blue

I have to agree with you too. But with a little different attitude. Mine being either you sell or you don’t sell, making reasonable stop losses of course. When people get confused when to sell and not to sell is when they get hurt the most. Wind up buying to the top and then selling at or near the bottom. Stubboringly holding on in Im never going to sell, and then they go in the red, and it continues to go down as panic selling..like now and then they consider to sell when one becomes worried about the stock or company itself. Im sure all here have done that once at “least”.Targets are good but the only problem with them is that they may not hit. Again people holding even though the market starts a down turn..waiting for the target instead of taking profit and run or setting a low stop loss at least. I suppose if you really really believe a stock will hit a target eventually and you can wait how ever long it takes for it to achieve that goalwith at least some reasonable stop loss like 7-10 percent then one should sit on hands like they say and not change mind on the way down..with stop loss in place..and wait, not then sell, then get squeezed out if it turns up fast. Gold is highly volitile, and everybody in the market including institutional inveastors knows that. Because it is, there will be severe corrections, and as you say you could loose all or more waiting for them to correct. Not only that it ties up your money in a losing stock. What to do with the money some ask if they pull the plug? Hold it, and after it shows the correction is slowing or changing buy back in, with maybe more money, more stock shares. If your stock is finished, failed you will have the money to go to a better stock. Not one can tell when the abosulte top is, but if you set a persentage of stop loss for each stock as it moves you will get about as close as it comes. There are some tricky moves by the MMs stopping people out, and why not to put it too close under the price and at the same time..not too far down either. As far as your charts Rambus, I have not yet disagreed with any you have posted. Keeping a eye on the sector is the biggest indicator of all the stocks that fall in it’s category. So keep posting..will help me keep focused..smile. This post will not be edited due to mouse.

At least INO isn’t showing anything….

quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

…BUT…did you call the Moonshot thet preceded it ?

…were you a raging bull on HUI last year at this time ?

….when we met in October in Ga….HUI was at 400 on its way from 285 to 520

….i dont think you were particularly bullish PMs at that time ..

…..did you nail that move..or part of it ?

….tia

I concur with those who say that all opinions and viewpoints are welcome, and to please keep a respectful attitude toward our fellow Gold Tenters who differ with our views. We do need to hear all well-reasoned arguments, and to look at charts, then decide what to do concerning our own individual investment strategies based on that information.

I sure identify with the Rambus quote: >The leverage that worked so well to the upside is now working against the juniors on the downside. I don’t want any >part of that reverse leverage.

That has been most of my problem. I had some significant gains years ago, and it was the juniors that made me the most money. By far. Now, however, in the last couple years the seniors have done quite well, and my juniors have been absolutely killing me. The danger for me is to start switching stocks too much, or I end up moving money from one losing stock into something that appears “safer” only to watch that stock in turn get hammered. My current mindset is to remind myself that I believe in the basket of stocks I own, and I am just going to sit tight. I have the benefit of knowing that this is retirement money that I don’t need for a few years. I have every confidence that in a few years, the stocks I am presently cursing will be many times higher than they are today. I realize that many people have a shorter time horizon and can’t “crawl into a hole and pull a rock over their heads” and wait as I am.

In retrospect, this endless two+ year correction was not a great time for buy and hold. I would have been better off taking profits and trading more, but that is not my forte’. I agree with PMF that it is better to buy and hold than to exit the bull run and never reenter, which I belive has happened/will happen to many, many investors.

Jim Sinclair made a comment not too long ago that relates to what others have said tonight about charts sometimes portending dire results that never actually occur. I can’t think how he worded it, but the thought was that it is very typical in the precious metals market that the PMs reverse course and have a great run just when the charts appear to be predicting disaster. If that is true, is it because the people who are trying to manipulate the markets downward lose control as the fundamentals trump their efforts? Or is it that once the PMs get reduced to the levels of the charts appearing to breakdown, the smart money who have been patiently waiting see these patterns as the perfect opportunity to put on large positions?

It doesn’t make sense to me that we could be in for a further prolonged, or significant downturn. Haven’t we been in a correction for the last two years, waiting for the next great run that never came? Awhile back we had a poll that asked when we would see a return to the highs for POG, and I voted for November. I figured that the PMs would be suppressed prior to the elections to make the economy look marginally better than it is. I would be surprised if the suppression of commodity prices and the continued correction in the PMs can be sustained at this level even until November.  

I didn’t put cannuckgold in the position he is in. He is trapped just like so many other goldbugs. They are in way over their heads and when they keep hearing to the moon form somebody that has a good gift of gab, you my friend are just as responsible for the position they find themselves in today as any other element of their financial undoing. So don’t put the blame on me. Cannuckgold is a big boy and he will do what he has to do to end his misery. All I did was point out from his charts that they were making lower lows and should have been sold for a profit not with a loss.
Rambus…

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arch0708.goldtent.net/2008/02/27/gld-and-slvlooking-powerful/

  Knowing that the country is in good hands.

We have had many times in the last eight years that Goldbugs were crying in legitimate pain, as their leveraged blood was flowing in the street, and many charts were presented that there was no bottom and goldbugs were doomed.

What happened every time? Gold and gold stocks bottomed and the ones who sold were left behind and the ones who sat tight or bought more if they could afford to, prospered. Now the traders who sold near the highs that was a different matter and we all aren’t good at that. But sell near the lows? Never.

Will it be the same this time? No one knows for sure but the over all fundamentals are as good or better than they have ever been. Yes we have manipulation but that is nothing new. The charts are subject to various interpretations, positive and negative.

Everyone needs to do what fits their individual circumstances. Be cautious with your hard earned money. I certaiinly am and therefore have considerable amounts in Gold and gold stocks.

At time like these I ask myself: What do I know for sure? My answer: It is not the time for me to sell gold or gold stocks. I know we are still in a Gold bull marrket and are in a sizeable correction. I know our self serving politicians will continue out of control spending and I know that all the spending will be paid for by creating “unlimited” fiat dollars out of thin air. That is what I know if little else!

Do I sell and adjust? Of coarse. I sold big time on May 9, 2006 when things went parabolic from my viewpoint. But certainly not now near the bottom of a correction, in my viewpoint. I bought more last week and will likely buy more next week but I am unusual with excess cash flow which goes from oil to fiat dollars to gold and gold stocks, with no debt or credit.

I spent a long lifetime of hard work and long hours, weekend and holidays to get in this position. I didn’t get here by leveraged speculation or trading but I did earn interests in very risky ventures some of which paid off and some went to zero but that never mattered with proper money management. Except for a few stupid, self inflicted learning mistakes that cost me dearly.

None of this is advise, just what I do in my special situation. I have not a clue what anyone else should do. I love Rambo’s, Grin’s and PMF’s charts plus all the various opinions and thought provoking comments on Inflation/Deflation. I detest the uncalled for bickering, name calling that goes on. That helps no one. And my pet peave: Mr. Sinclair is giving mightly of his time to try and help people and he gets unjust criticism from people who say they don’t read him and therefore don’t understand his comments when taken out of context, Humbug!
Deadeye