Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

Bro — Yes, that was my general gist about my thoughts on the manipulation blame game.  Gold and everything golden was getting the crap pounded out of it last night and you mentioned ‘manipulation’ to me.  I didn’t say that there wasn’t any manipulation across the board – of course there is from time to time on a relatively small scale.  Sometimes (on rare occasions) people actually get caught and racked for it too.  

However, on balance, I don’t subscribe to this manipulation thesis as an explanation for everything under the sun.  Generally speaking, I think this rationalization often tends to reek of unreasonably suspicious behavior, sometimes to the point of being obsessive.  I do think it is a cop out for the most part.  It’s a convenient ’solution’ when things don’t happen the way someone thinks it ’should’.  Afterwards, they often pull out the manipulation (race) card as the explanation instead of admitting they were wrong or that they don’t fully understand the mechanics of a particular move. 

I think all to often what people attribute to ‘manipulation’ is actually the result of pervasive speculation.  For example, I could say: look at the oil price over the past 5 years…up and up and up.  Surely, someone has manipulated the price of oil — let’s pin it on GS for all the right reasons.  When someone buys like crazy and talks their book the whole way up — is this manipulation?  I’d say no, it may be gross speculation on their part, but I do not feel that it is outright manipulation.  All one needs to do is look at the weekly CRB in any currency to see how far it’s come over the last 7 years.  Did someone manipulate this massive index to kingdom come?  No way… Was there lopsided speculation across the board…hell yeah. 

Bottom line: this correction is simple playground justice — where something or someone gets out of control (like the grade school bully) and a bunch of rival kids band together and beat the daylight out him. 

I did not know of him but I do now!   Thanks a bunch, such a different sound for me.  Love him.

breeze

Update from Irish just sent. If anyone doesn’t receive it, let me know. thanks

That pod looks a heck of a lot safer than riding around in the tentmobile with Irish. Beam me up papaya.

PS, what are we gonna call you when you move to Seattle..

mayanomorepapayanomorehawaya OK, that may be a little long

to the newest tenters

goldenbuckeye and old yeller , good to see you convert from lurker to poster  ..Cheers

Total Medals By Nation

sportsillustrated.cnn.com/olympics/2008/medals/tracker/

JBI

Equiz, I was referring to the 3 indicators that accompany the chart…..its RSI is at a very very high reading and the most overbought in more than 3 years, as are its MACD and Slow Stochs….I could not resist showing the 300 DMA, which remains in a definite downtrend and may prove to be very very tough resistance for the $ to overcome for sometime to come.

I hope that helps a little in clarifying what I meant by “grotesquely and insanely overbought”.

JBI

…..went from up 10 to Flat in half an hour…

….moves like that used to take a week not too many years ago

….sheesh

You say at 20:20 that the US dollar is “grotesquely and insanely overbought” as it moves back up to its 300-day moving average, implying that it should remain below its 300 dma.  When POG, or perhaps some other PM-related market entities drop down to the vicinty of their 300 dma, some people may refer to POG to be oversold at that point, but I dont think many people imply that it should stay below the 300 dma, as you seem to imply that the US dollar should stay below its 300 dma.  I know that some will respond that the difference is that the USD is in  a long-term downtrend  and that POG is in a long-term uptrend, but even so should’nt they both be referred to the same way as they touch their 300 dma?  Just trying to learn.  Equiz

PEACE TO ALL

….and what a coincidence

“Ohio, the state named after an attractive but otherwise useless nut. ”

.my ex wife’s name was Ohio

Japan’s economy contracts 2.4% in second quarter

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Japan’s economy contracted in the April to June quarter on an annualized basis, as softer consumer spending and weak capital investment threaten to bring the country’s long post-war expansion to an end. The economy shrank 2.4% in the second quarter, after expanding a revised 3.2% in the first, according to preliminary figures released by the Cabinet Office Wednesday.

JBI