Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

what time you up till tonite?

Sorry ,, I got sidetracked.. need to re-fill my skype and I’ll call you this week

The answer is : she’s wondering what kind of whacko I hang out with and can she ship her hubby down there

You both seem to be in the deflation camp..Personally I’m thinking inflation but both seem to have merit ..On the one hand the steep drop in money supply is certainly unsettling..If banks don’t want to lend and consumers don’t want to spend then you got gluts all over and prices ratchet downwards.. But really, where is the deflation here (at present)? Well housing prices are “deflating” but I don’t think you can label it deflation..I think it’s a necessary meltdown to purge the excesses and speculations..But I’m not seeing it in the stuff we need ie food and energy and a myriad of other escalating costs..So where is the deflation I keep asking.. Could it be coming down the pike ? maybe ..Does the 25% drop in all commods ACROSS the board signal a sea change? Well I don’t know what the lag time is but I’ve yet to see any correlation via price drops in the stuff we need and I cannot see it going forward either unless we enter a worldwide recession but even then I have doubts about price drops in view of the shortages of commods we’ve seen in recent months.. I think what is happening is yet to be labeled cuz I think the variables are different and much, much more complex than the U.S .in the 30’s (deflation) and in the 70’s ( inflation).

3 Concepts….1 Physical …Hold
………………..2 Buy and Hold Stocks
………………..3..Trading Stocks…

……Now dont be kicking yourself over the Trading Mistake….Just about everyone makes them…trading is just a short term bet..

….good of you to admit it though…thats all any reasonable person would expect…

…best FGC

If the Europeans didn’t decide to take the month of August off don’t think all this mayhem  would have happen.  But of course nothing is a coincidence.

Rambus good job explaining your position as always.

Islander you showed yours…a little rough around the edges but what the hell.

Humanoid would say Shake
To me your family anyway….boy do i feel stupid right now.

Back on February 18, 2008, as those charts clearly show, there was a speculative frenzie going on that couldn’t be denied. Some of those moves were spectacular and looking back in hindsight it was a blow off move that was signaling the end to this round of inflation IMHO. As I said in my early post tonight I began to question the inflation concept in the spring and early June as many of those charts topped out and began to roll over. Islander, I know you have been following me since the tent came into being and you know that I was one of the biggest gold bugs around. Just look over at Poster’s Paradise and see how bullish I was for the HUI and Gold up until the end of March when the Rising Wedge on the HUI decided to break down instead of going up through the top of the pattern. When we broke the bottom rail, that was a water shed moment for me. We should have broken through the top rail to keep this bull market going and when we didn’t, like I say, that was a defining moment for me.
When you look toward the bottom of that post, notice the 3 precious metals I showed. I think I called the gold move pretty close at 1020, Platinum fell just short of the 2500 I was looking for and silver was the biggest disappointment by far which failed by 7 dollars, another red flag for me. The silver chart looked alot like the gold chart with a beautiful rising flag formation. It didn’t even come close to the PO of 29 dollars. That silver failure, I think, helped signal the start of the commodity correction as investors still don’t see it in the same light as gold yet.
I still find it rather odd from my perspective only, that so many gold bugs think you can’t try and play these intermediate term moves and that you can only have one mindset for the entire bull market. If this is truly a generational bull market in the PM’s, there is bound to be ebbing and flowing of inflation and deflation through the many years that are ahead of us. I think we just went through one of those transitions between inflation to deflation for some period of time. When I begin to see signs of bottoms forming in the PM’s and other commodities I will, with some luck, be able to shift gears back to the other side of the equation if need be to play this market.
All the best to you islander…Rambus

When the cigarrett was lit..I refered to a first grade reader that said..”Run Dick Run….
I just saw two shooting stars in the background of the movie Jaws…The night they were singing and waiting for the shark.

got lots of rain here. many fields flooded but no harm. nothing is planted yet. probably some alfalfa lost. got a good market for mushrooms? we got a bumper crop in the works. haven’t seen this many in at least a decade. liquidated half my short feeders today. cattle on feed friday should spark a good rally.

rno

kinda like the battle of the bulge in wide screen technicolor? gonna need some reeeaal long rolls to cover that much uuuh, skin. irish, they’re coming. heard someone was operating a grill and they never met a grill they didn’t adore. what was the story about belcha and baked beans and someone downwind lit a cigarette???

rno

post my picture on Goldtent, so I appreciate your 21:47 posting of my likeness.  Cheers.  equiz.

….Rambus has stated he follows his Charts ….His Charts were showing Inflation in February…as he so eloquently posted directly to Islander….Recently his Charts are saying Deflation…so he has changed his mind….this is what Islander has now pointed out tonite…

…Its not a sin to change ones mind….and Is a real sign of a great trader to read The Charts and Go with the Flow…Rambus stated clearly in a post to me yesterday…he is seeing deflation…FOR NOW…but if the charts break thru to the upside..He would re examine and voila….Inflation again !…He has nailed BOTH so far…

….Maybe this is a medium Term Deflation Expectation we are seeing here in the markets in a Secular Inflationary Enviornment…

…Big question is when do we turn up again…Days ?..Weeks ?..Months ..?….Years..?….Never…?

…Recently Goldballoon “acused” Sabre of turning from Inflationist to Deflationist…I take it Sabre did not appreciate the tone and has not posted since…

..TQ…I agree the Tone of a post maybe says more than the content…so lets ask Islander…did he mean to embarass Rambus…or was he pointing out the change in mind over the last few months ?

Islander ?

  Thanks for the Denninger article. Good read.

That is a cheap shot, and a form of trash talk.  It has no place here.   Rambus has elevated the level of analysis here, and your post does not show him the respect he deserves.   Normally I would let a poster deal with hecklers as their own personal burden, but in this case I want to make clear that I support anyone’s attempt to understand the markets, and if this means that as facts emerge that support a change of thinking, then we should be free to do so without having to put up with reading someone’s bias towards rigid and frozen points of view.    Remember that America’s George Washington was once a British officer.   Are we to dispise him too because he changed his point of view?   See:

www.suite101.com/article.cfm/presidents_and_first_ladies/27515

Rambus has gone to some lengths to explain the change in his thinking, and that he wants his view of the markets to be reality based.   So, as the unfolding deflationary forces have become visible he has studied them.
What have you added to this discussion?

You’ll get no argument from me Moggy.  “free market”  Pshaww!

Best to you, ipso