Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

re: tinyurl….I’ve been trying to get in all day and it’s a no go.  I don’t even get the white page, ie doesn’t start spinning.  My puter just doesn’t want to go there. 

Thanks for the reply

<<1) Is Putin Good or Bad for ” Mother Russia ”

2) Is Putin Good or Bad for ” The World ”>>

It’s a mixed bag…comparing his horoscope with that of Russia, there are 7 positive and 7 negative aspects between the charts…but I’d say on the whole he is good for Russia…because he links stability and loyalty, ensuring agreement in handling of problems, allocation of duties, authority and responsibility…excellent for business and financial associations…he lends to the country the organizing ability and persistence needed to carry out any mutual purposes.  Putin’s Saturn sextiles Russia’s Sun.  Most of the negative aspects

On the downside:  he tends to rebel against any authority the country may exhibit and will not cooperate, to the dissatisfaction of the higher-ups, sometimes creating violent reactions.  Putin’s Sun squares Russia’s Uranus.

Your second question is not answerable.  If every country’s leader were as good for their country as Putin is for Russia…putting it on firm business and financial footing…the world would be in fine shape.  Instead, the U.S. has a president whose Saturn opposes the U.S. 2nd house Pluto, to the end that during his reign he will do everything in his power to harm the financial structure of America…while his Mars squaring the U.S. 6th house Uranus causes him to resent the independence of Americans to the end that he makes sure their jobs (6th) are outsourced.

Moggy

2-Point:  Although I saw that the above was posted, it has since disappeared…this is a second try.

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BRAVE”

FERTILIZERS, GRAINS AND PRECIOUS METALS

As you know, we are fundamental analysts, not technicians. We take an investment view on stocks and commodities, not a trading view. That being said, we believe that much of the panic and the savage price decline in food related investments and in precious metals is behind us. We are adding to our positions in these two areas.

We do not know if the correction caused by technical momentum traders is over. What we do know is that the emerging world is very strong economically, and these countries are large and growing consumers of high protein foods. Thus, a recession in Europe, Japan and the U.S. will not deter them from upgrading their diets. This will require the production of more grains and an increase in demand for fertilizers and other food production inputs. We own fertilizer stocks and we have recently been adding to our positions.

The world banking system is broken and badly needs to be re capitalized. How will they get new capital from investors? We doubt that the banks will be able to get many investors to buy into their optimism and buy their stock. In our opinion, the only long term solution is that governments print more money to re-capitalize and re-liquefy the banking system. The season for increased gold demand is upon us as India starts to buy more for the wedding season. Gold coins are in short supply at many coin dealers in the U.S. Stagflation, inflation, and deflation threaten the world in different parts of the globe. All of these events are bullish for gold and we are adding to our gold positions.

As we said earlier we are not technicians, or momentum players (the two groups that seem to have had control of commodity prices during the last few weeks). We are fundamentalists, and the fundamentals argue that food and precious metals are getting into attractive buy areas.

We do not know if this is the ultimate bottom in precious metals. We do know that we want to own gold during periods when the world banking system is flirting with collapse and the only solution is governmental takeovers and subsequent large money printing exercises, by governments in Europe, Japan and the U.S.

There has been no fundamental decrease in the value of gold as a hedge against both inflation and strong deflation. Clearly, many commentators believe that one or the other may be the long-term outcome. We believe it is still too early to call…but that inflation has the upper hand at this time. Historically, gold has fared well in both inflationary and strong deflationary periods. We will write more on this later.

Thanks for listening.

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So tonight it’s Catfish and MD20-20.  This is good deep water Catfish caught “by the dam”.  Mmmmm.  It could be the most dense of all species, the big channel cat sucking fumes off the bottom of big, ol, industrial, international shipping river channels.  I was disappointed that I couldn’t find a recipe for channel cat in my favorite Nova Scotia cookbook so we decided to eat like the locals and FRY IT !   The MD20-20 should flush out the toxins i reckon (hope)

Adrian has it right…

Bill,
Welcome to the financial Hall of Mirrors where everything gets distorted into grotesque, unrecognizable shapes. Fannie and Freddie imploded today dropping around 30% each and their combined market cap that now stands behind 10 T$ of mortgage debt is less then half the market cap of Starbucks!

We had the obligatory bold face lying from the CEO of a soon to be bankrupt company

biz.yahoo.com/ap/080820/mortgage_giants_crisis.html?.v=9

QUOTE

Mudd said the company’s financial position “remains very strong,” and that he intends to remain the CEO.

END

Where is Sarbanes-Oxley? Their finances are such a disaster they haven’t produced a financial statement for 5 years yet the CEO can vouch that their financial position is very strong!!! This is outrageous. I think his name is going to be Mud…ooops, sorry, his name is Mudd!

How more obvious can it be that the Treasury is going to tap its unlimited line of credit with the FED and magically produce 10T$ out of thin air? And on a day like this when the sluice gates of monetary debasement are about to be cranked wide open the USDX magically rose and gold declined!

The Cartel is clearly committing the heist of the century as they criminally manipulate futures markets to cover their toxic short positions while the physical metals markets are on fire.

Mean while HSBC moves to “neutral on gold”!!

HSBC moves to neutral on gold as bubble deflates

www.investmentweek.co.uk/public/showPage.html?page=810843

QUOTE

He said gold, without the restrictions of the supply/demand constraints some precious metals have, has formed a bubble, which is now deflating.

END

Oh paleeeze! Gold was in a bubble!? That is with gold rising to the same price it reached 28 years ago and being only 33% of its inflation adjusted price of 1980 and the public not being able to spell gold, yet it was in a bubble!

I would like to see what HSBC’s gold positions are. I would suspect they will be like those of Goldman Sachs on TOCOM who recommend selling gold to their clients while they cover their own shorts!

This is like some weird dream. I think when I wake up gold will be $10,000/oz and climbing.
Cheers
Adrian

 Proprietary method.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/aug202008.html

  Thanks Grin

   Margaret - I dunno whether it even matters. I feel like we’re a bunch of David’s trying to fight Goliath in the paper markets without a slingshot.

    Earlier in the year when the Pakistan Stock Market took a 40% tumbled.  The share holders rioted in the streets.

The government had to do something so they made up for their loses.

Time for PM’S shareholders to take it to the streets.

as to go look implied by

www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=327860&postcount=9121

the following can be found

>>>>>>>>>

Kitcotodd, 17:12:57 01/06/08 Sun

You are absolutely correct.I think that we will be completing wave 3 in Dec 08 and 80 was a wave 5 top.

My thinking goes as follows:

1. $2500 gold only brings us back to the 80 high adjusted with the CPI for inflation. And we all know what a joke the CPI is.

2. The way my model works is that the impact of a turn date increases exponentially as we near the date. My DEC 08 turn date has been one of two turn dates attracting gold price since 2001. Its impact has been growing stronger as we go along, as evidenced by

a, the move since August, and

b, the short duration of the correction this fall (it lasted 2 weeks while a comparable correction lasted over one month in the fall of 1978. It took 3 months to exceed the previous high and we did it about 6 weeks this time)

3. The value that I obtained in my model for the 1980 high turn date was on the order of 300,000. What I report here as very large turn dates are on the order of 150,000. My Dec 08 value is over 2 million, about the size of the one associated with the collapse of the continental currency in 1781.

The caveats are as follows.

Its unusual for the Wave 3 turn date to be larger than the Wave 5 turn date (due in 2014).

The last time in history that the model had a comparable configuration there were no markets or data for me to use to make a reasonable comparison. Finally, and this is a difficult one to get your mind around, the model doesn’t predict gold price turn dates. It predicts something else and gold price is the best indicator. It predicts something more akin to alternating inflationary and deflationary forces. Gold isn’t used as money anymore.

It does trade freely though with heavy manipulation.

So, if the powers that be want to keep shorting it for another year, perhaps we won’t see a lot happen. I think gold should be very nearly the same in price as platinum, but, its not. Can it make up some of that lost ground in the ensuing panic and turmoil that lie just ahead?

 I think it will. But, I’m guessing. The model supports the notion, but, as I said there are other considerations. So, my $2000 figure is a compromise number based on all of the above considerations.

Very interesting post. So we are heading into the largest turn date since the collapse of the continental currency in 1781?

Well I don’t see how orchestrated gold shorting will hold its price down if the power of that turn date holds true.

I’m expecting a couple more corrections before Dec 08. I don’t have a sense where they might be as yet, other than perhaps Feb and late summer/early fall. I think I can nail them down to specifics, but as yet I haven’t completed the work. For now, and until I think that I can call the corrections, I’m holding long ala WilliE.

I think that we will have a 1 1/2 year correction, perhaps starting Jan 09 and going to August 2010.

My biggest concern is a collapse in the general market as discussed in many quarters like the Hat Trick Newsletter, Ure and the Web Bots (which coincides quite well with what I’m looking for). In American history, the 1st wave (analogous to our Dec08 turn) tends to go provide a market peak in both commodities and the general stock market. Things may be different this time because of the magnitude of the 2008 and 2014 turn dates, plus, as I said the unusual occurrence of a higher turn value in 08 versus 2014.

I’m looking at 1864 and 1919 as references.

BTW, they say that the market never rallies and inflation doesn’t occur with housing prices declining. They are wrong. That did happen in 1919. Most people don’t look at the really old data. Its hard to find, believe me because I’ve spent a lot of time looking for it.

Anyway, what I have done is shift some of my stock profits into futures, starting back in Aug 07. At one time I owned most of the open interest in Dec08 880 strike calls. I paid an average of 1500 per contract. Last week they hit 8000. At this point, 25% of my portfolio is in options on futures in the 880 to 920 range.

The way I look at it, one of two things will happen. Either the banking system collapses or they create hyperinflation to keep the system afloat. Either way, I think the first couple of quarters may be rough for gold stocks because of the general market. Hopefully, they will hold their ground due to a rising gold price. If the banking system collapses with bank/brokerages going belly up, no access to cash, etc. the stock market can only plunge. If that happens, gold stocks will get creamed no matter what gold does. If I were going to sell stocks I would do it in this time frame, perhaps not tomorrow but in early February. If we go the hyperinflationary route, then the general stock market will trend higher, probably make a high along with gold stocks next January. Gold stocks will do extremely well. I am leaning towards the hyperinflationary outcome. They will do whatever it takes to keep the banks afloat. We’ve all heard and read the inflation vs. deflation arguments. I think deflation will occur, just not until they have one more go at levitating the bubble and that bubble will be commodities and the general stock market. Having the inside track on what the markets will do will put a trillion or three in the pockets of the boyz so that those mortgage backed obligations won’t hurt so much. Either way, I think its going to be rough sledding in the first half until it becomes obvious what the fed and the U.S. government are up to. If they don’t figure out how to do the helicopter drop, its going to be fugly and stock profits will likely be the least of our concerns. At that point ya better have bullion.

A typical summer doldrums may or may not occur this year. We will have to see. As I said, I am expecting one correction in gold during late summer/early fall. That correction may not start in the May/June time frame this time, but a bit later. I still have to work out the details as far as the model goes.

^^

LOL. Have to confess that I had it stored, but changed a few lines to make it current. Man, the negativity is thick. Guess, it’s time for a rally.

….now tell us what you really think …LOL

Time makes Putin man of the year
for getting Russia back in gear,
fighting gangsters in Moscow streets,
while democracy flounders at his feet.

He’s got GOLD but got no beat,
he just plays the old Czarist sheet,
half KGB, half Stalinist stoolie,
he’s going to treat us mighty cruelly.

Give him power and he’ll go whole hog,
let loose war like a rabid dog.
He might be Time’s man of the year,
if you’re free, regard him with fear!!!

Love of gold doesn’t make the man,
even if he’s got it in his grasping hand.
Combine GOLD with freedom’s decree
then you’re talking of a higher degree.

Man of the year? Time is nuts,
for placing the crown on such a putz.
He poisons journalists to get his way,
only total slavery will make his day!!!

Sorry we didn’t meet up maybe next time. I missed your email until the next night as I went to bed as I get up at 4:30 work days.Watched your video of mile high. I am not familiar with mile high but have landed at alot of the strips along the middle fork of the Salmon river. Pistol Creek, Indian Creek, Thomas Creek, Mahony, and Simplot Ranch. Some of those back country strips arn’t for the faint of heart.

More leverage…Ya thats what we need.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-DhZMybeJk

May as well have a chuckle while we wait for the next move UP!!!!

Winedoc