Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

….Did the Agricultural Commodities go Parabolic and will they fall like a stone..like Platinum ?

..TIA

Grin — dang!  When you see that kind of bearish rising wedge you buy the top channel (buy puts that is).  That’s one of my favorite reversal patterns.  If it breaks out above the wedge; cover like crazy.  Always be on the look out for that. The downside is typically much, much quicker and brutal — so you can make a lot of money using puts. 

I wanted to buy some puts earlier on platinum, but I don’t have a futures account and there is no ETF.  The trick to options is always the time element it will always try to wreck your trade…. Notice if I had bought the 6 month (July) option in mid Feb [always expires 3rd friday of month] I wouldn’t have given myself enough time to get bailed out.  If you think about it this is how the market is incredibly efficient!  A trader can spot that a reversal in platinum coming, but the market would put it off just long enough to take your money …. THEN … go the direction and distance you were thinking.  Sometimes stuff like this makes you go crazy!

TQ — your 1300 PO was spot on.  I was trying to take advantage of this PGM pullback using options. My focus was on SWC which I was aggressively buying puts.  Options can really bite you.  I had the total right idea, but I started buying too early and I was too stupid to not buy far enough out.  Overall, I made some money, but it was hardly worth the effort given where it went in retrospect.  I thought SWC would drop like a rock, but it was a slow death.  About those compliments the other day; I definitely meant them.  I became interested and learned much of my TA from your posts over at GE.

goldtent.net/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/gold-oil_ratio_30yrs.png

look at the head at about 30 and the neckline at 8..it has been breached….

PO…………… Minus 14 !

…were friggen doomed

….but what about that Island bottom ?
…and why would it go to 4 fundamentally….the mean is about 15..

….dont forget too …you Bears….You are looking at Commodities…

…Gold is changing from a Comoditiy ( Jewlery )…to a Currency….see Hamilton…

….Investment buying increasing…Supply Decreasing….

tq, i would go with the hammer. (check to see if wire is hot on startup. coil in choke may be bad)

fgc, rpw in dec bean oil, december bot wheat, november rice, and december corn has h&s. i wish i could trade all of them but my micro account can only handle one commodity at a time. i am currently long feeder cattle.

rno

The $DJW chart shows what could be a H&S Top; neckline has been broken to the downside, and a backtest is occurring.   As in the charts I mentioned Friday evening, join the early 2007 low to the early 2008 low for the neckline;  then extend it tothe present.  If it becomes a Kiss and Go [down] then the po is just over 200, about 53 points lower than the point at which the breakdown occurred.  It’s up to the bulls to boost it to above 263.

Hi Fully;  looking at the chart it seems like a H&S Top with a po just under 4.  Also the run down after the top is five waves, followed by three up; what happens next?  If the H&S Top is valid, then more downside is expected, which would answer the question.

…saw that sticker on a Harley Today

..you really are a Redneck eh ?

…Question…these RPWs you are seeing…are they in the Grains Too ?

All good points.  I impressed a friend when I repaired her van last year by using some nickle-steel wire and some copper pipe strap.  But I think that I find the rpw hard to understand because I don’t run a trotline.  I did once have a paper route, but that does not  count here.

So I have to stick to fixing old cars with hammers, wire, pliers, screwdrives and wrenches.  BTW, a question.  I think that the choke is stuck on my 1984 Pontiac Bonneville, and am wondering if a little brake fluid down the air intake will do more harm than good to unstuck it.  Any suggestions?  Maybe I should talk to goldielocks too. 

rpw stand for “reverse point wave”. it was developed by wells wilder in the 1970’s, i think. in order to comprehend the complexities of the rpw, you must first become an accomplished noodler, moonshiner, trotliner, and be able to double the value of your main mode of transportation by putting on a new set of tires. it also helps if you can fix your car with a screwdriver, pliers, crescent wrench, baling wire, and a big hammer. you will know you have arrived when you get to replace the used tires on your roof with concrete blocks.

hope i have been of some assistance.

rno

BTW, thanks for the kind words the other day.

This chart shows a Double Top.  I had promised that I would comment on some in one of my last posts.   The low after the top was about 500 under the first top.  Using the rule of measure we can identify that the price objective was about 1300.  This target was reached within ten dollars.

This is a good example because the second top was not as high as the first, and some would think that this disqualifies the pattern as a double top.  In this case the skeptics must ask, was the price objective reached by accident?  or was there more to it.

A second double top is in the Breakwater chart, bwr.to. Since thefirst top was C$3.69 and the low that followed was C$2.12, the price objective was about 3.69 - 2.12 = 0.57 or 57 cents.  Once the second top failed to make a new high the 2.12 low was the number in play.  Once this broke who thought that it would go to under a dollar?

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BWR.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53125581002

I hope that the posts that I made Friday evening about Double Tops may be helpful.

….Beauty !

      what have you done for us lately? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIWmmbbALok