Margaret2 @ 17:43 pm on September 3, 2008
I have done some chart work, so I will offer some thoughts.
First, the market is the market; this means that it acts and some of us try to interpret what it is doing. I use the charts as a summary and more, of the fundamentals, news etc. I do not need to know the news, the chart can offer me a price objective; later I might learn what caused it.
I agree with what David Tice writes in the short interview at this link:
moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/stocks/2008/09/02/126965.html
I posted this morning that I thought gold could go to the mid 700s, perhaps lower.
The post explains my reasoning, briefly. See the 6:10 or so time period.
If David Tice is correct, then such a large collapse will likely imo bring all sectors down. George Ure is also suggesting a dismal period beginning in early October. Leap2020 have written that a major dislocation is likely by yearend.
With all that means in terms of a deep and long fall in equities, I do not think that the precious metals stocks will be different. This is due to two simple factors. First, in a credit and solvency crisis, in which we appear to be now in year two, cash is king, and assets are sold to raise cash in order to pay off debt. Secondly, in falling stock markets, and as incomes shrink in the business world due to the contraction of the economy, there is little extra cash with which to buy gold for investment or savings purposes, imo.
Both of these factors have been described in articles elsewhere, some linked here, and so, having read some of them, I think that these two factors strongly support the view that this is a crisis still in its early stages. Something would have to change for me to think that precious metals companies will soon see improved earnings and higher stock prices.
So, what would drive gold prices higher? There is demand at present, but are prices rising?
In a falling gold and silver price environment, and with the cost of mining rising, there will be a margin squeeze; that is, some companies will find it hard to operate profitably. I think that this is what the share prices are now telling us; that earnings are becoming less.
I do not enjoy writing such pessimistic views; these views have been developing for some months, and I would like to find at least one area for investment or for savings that offer protection from the current crisis.
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