Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_waves

seems to me it may have been

” she paid heed to the Dark Side “

You got me confused.(I know QED)..Would that not be a rather short K cycle..If it ended early this century , then when did it begin and where was the debt purge?

56 years - I can document if need be.

No problem.

aurum

Well my plan was to get out of pm’s for the duration of this wave II - I was caught with the last part to roll out of GDX on this steep drop. But since I do believe it is wave II; Barney told me to keep that and add to it. We may not have seen the lows and we may revisit these areas in a year or two: but look at the MACD. Build for the long term he said.

This is when you buy - not when the talking heads say buy.

So I have changed my plan.

aurum

I don’t really see that the K winter is late. 70 years would put it around 2000 from the beginning of the last K winter. And we could argue that 2000 was the beginning. And the winter period lasts about fifteen years or so. So we would still have another seven years of it. It seems to be really intense now, with debt making the banks tighten credit. Isn’t this the wringing out period, when debt stops building and goes into reverse. Then savings begin, and this prepares for the K spring. As I understand it anyway.

  You might be surprised that I agree with you and AuGirl, it doesn’t make sense.

  Whatever the case, he’s had a tough year no matter how you slice it.

  Only meant in the context that you went out on a limb and bought some GDX - he is out on a limb calling for a turn.

   Course he’s also coverng himself by saying if we break the 07′ low we are doomed.

I have posted many times on my count of the K cycle. I think the winter ended early this century - pick a year. But that means we are starting slowly an inflationary cycle that will peak (as per K-wave) in guess when: yes the 2030’s. The inflation K top and the commodity top.

I did a quick search for the whole debate on that but could not find it. Still it is on the Tent.

The gist of it was that those who are waiting for Winter - do the math - it can’t be this late.

Good to have you back to chat/argue.

aurum

  I don’t think you’re nitpicking

  “Words mean things”

There is another possibility that no one has mentioned.

aurum

he may actually be The Best .. of The Best .. Talking Heads … and a fine job he has done as ” Watchman ” .. would you not say ?

I thought that Rosen had a poor track record? Maybe I don’t want to be in his boat.

I have never understood Delta points. Can someone explain those?

I think pog has a bit down yet that is separate from paper stocks. i.e. I look at pog (GLD) different than say HUI/XAU.

aurum

Not to be combative or to bother spending too much time on this subject BUT:  Yes, really your paranoid perceptions are so correct; Jim Sinclair is out to take you all and to destroy his reputation even this early in the game and  even prior to his 2011 $gold 1650 minimum date.

Do you all ever bother to think?

Yes, but this is a Kondratieff winter year, as was 1929 and thereafter. These Kondratieff cycles are not small potatoes. They appear according to the Big K every seventy years or so. And the winter of the cycle wrings debt from the economy which has been built up in the prior decades. Isn’t this exactly what we are seeing now, all the debt creation of the past forty years or so coming home to roost? And the geopolitical scene in my opinion is looking a lot like the thirties, war and the rumour of wars, terrorism and counter terrorism, with a good chance of a major conflict looming that would make everything since WW11 look small. I cannot see the present period as mild. It seems much more pivotal than that.