Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I think that it would be foolish to say that there isn’t global warming going on in the big picture.  It’s hard to refute the melting in the Arctic and now the possibility of a navigable Northwest Passage.  The question I have is with it’s cause.  I’m not at all convinced that global warming is caused by humans.  The Earth has warmed and cooled many times in the past when man wasn’t a factor. 

Man caused or not global warming is being used as a device for governments to increase control over their citizens.  “Carbon credits”…the bureaucrat that thought that idea up probably got a medal.  Seems to me like just another scheme to pick the taxpayers pockets.

Al Gore would have more credibility with me if he didn’t have a carbon footprint as big as 20 normal Americans. 

This is a complicated subject and I don’t claim in depth knowledge of it.  I will just go forward and try to keep an open mind.

Best, ipso

I hope to see you back here with your great charts. It is entirely up to you whether you hold for 4 minutes, 4 days or 4 years. And you certainly do not have to make any public confessions on this board. Come back, any time. All the best.

Strong fundamentals will support a rebound in gold prices despite the recent drop off, executives from the world’s three biggest yellow metal miners agreed Wednesday at the Denver Gold Forum. Related content

Gold will once again break the US$1,000/oz barrier, and possibly reach heights of US$1,500/oz over the next 18-24 months, according to Vancouverite Goldcorp’s (TSX: G, NYSE:GG) CEO Kevin McArthur.

The gold market is undergoing a correction, McArthur said, adding though that he is surprised by “the quickness and amplitude of this correction.”

Gold hit a high on the London Bullion Market on March 17 when it closed at US$1,011.250/oz, spent roughly mid-June through August 1 above US$900/oz, and has since dropped off to close at US$775.750/oz on September 10. The metal has averaged US$900.463/oz so far this year.

US company Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) CEO Richard O’Brien also sees a sharp turnaround, with gold prices going into the US$1,300-1,400/oz range over the next year or two.

Along the way there “will be volatility… there will be ups and downs,” O’Brien said.

Factors underpinning the gold price resurgence forecasts include tight market supply as overall gold production declines, as well as a belief that “the US dollar will decline relative to the emerging currencies of China and India,” considering gold’s negative correlation to the US dollar, O’Brien added.

Sharing Newmont and Goldcorp’s sentiments is the world’s largest gold miner Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

“We’re very bullish on gold prices,” Barrick executive VP exploration and corporate development Alexander Davidson said in Denver.

“The fundamentals for gold remain very compelling from both a supply and a demand side, underpinned by declining mine supply and emerging market demand for gold,” Davidson said.

I’m going to show you two views of the same chart, one a bar chart and one a line chart. Each will show you different parts of the same story, that from my perspective, is the story I’m following. I have been posting these two charts since April of this year trying to show the different possibilities of it’s outcome, which at one point early on, could have been a bullish rising wedge instead of our current bearish rising wedge. But the bullish rising wedge wasn’t to be as the first bar chart will show. This is a 5 point reversal pattern complete with a H&S’s top at the end of it’s formation. What makes this pattern so bearish is the way it broke down from the H&S top. It basically took out the neckline and the bottom rail of the rising wedge in one felled swoop. No playing around. And then the most important piece of the puzzle was put into place with the perfect backtest to the underside of the bottom rail of the wedge. Classic TA. It just doesn’t get any better than that from my point of view. This is the main reason I’ve been so bearish on the HUI index. The reason we didn’t get a backtest of the H&S neckline is because the bottom rail of the rising wedge prevented the counter trend rally from going any higher at which point we created a bear flag halfway pattern.

Next, the line chart of the same pattern. This view shows you how the neckline was formed for the H&S top. All the tops in the preceding formation created an up slopping rail that was resistance when we were in the previous consolidation and once we broke above that up slopping rail it then became support as it formed the neckline of our beloved H&S top pattern that nobody and I mean nobody wanted to recognize. Even to this day, as it sticks out like a sore thumb on the chart, nobody is giving it any credit for the pain it has cause every gold bug that remained long their shares. Notice how we sliced thru both the neckline and the bottom rail of the wedge, again with the power of 10 million butterfly sneezes, to trap everyone that held above those two important rails. That brings us to the 4th reversal point on the chart, the 4 bottoms of the previous consolidation pattern. Again, from my perspective, those bottoms will now act as resistance on any rally attempt. There are alot of folks that bought at those bottoms and now that we are below that level they will be looking to get out even if the chance arrives. This is how support and resistance works in the markets Its not the cretin but just plain old human nature to want to just get out even.
A bearish rising wedge measures to the beginning of the formation, so in this case the 170 area, the bottom of a previous consolidation area should act as strong support for a place to begin building a base in which we can then regroup and get ready for the next rally phase.

We are in an area where alot of folks are going to make some bad decisions trying to be the first one to pick “THE” bottom. We still have a roaring fire going to the downside. The smoke hasn’t even cleared yet and everyone is wanting to jump in, to be the first to say, I bought the bottom. It would be nice to be able to make that statement but very few will actually be able to say that.
Peace and all the best to those that have had to endure this decline…Rambus

 <<….You jumped in here a couple days ago….and asSOEE said ..we do not know you….

…Its nice to see a bottom call from anybody….BUT….please enlighten us as to why you showed upjust now?>>

He jumped in yesterday, the 9th as the planet Pluto turned direct in motion and made his first post @ 11:53 a.m. EDT…the event horoscope reveals Scorpio Rising, ruler Pluto in 2nd trine the Midheaven…he knows his stuff and tends to be generous with his financial knowledge.

Moggy

but mostly, the names have been changed to hide identity

je ne sais pas

You are correct in that I considered anything associated with the occult to be evil, however because of your post I have learned that the your definition is more accurate.  I did not mean to disturb you or stir up a storm.  Please accept my apologies.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occultism#Occultism

  The names have been changed to protect the innocent.

Thank You for ANSWERING the questions put to you this evening, and as suchk I have ANOTHER question for you , .. it is

If you Hold Longer than 4 Months then what is your time Limit ?

TIA

2_p

….You jumped in here a couple days ago….and asSOEE said ..we do not know you….

…Its nice to see a bottom call from anybody….BUT….please enlighten us as to why you showed upjust now?

…have you been lurking….how did you come to find us..

…do you post on other sites ?

…did you call the top in March….or near to it ?

…..do you have stocks and Phys..( a core hlding )…or are you a trader ?

…..how long have you been in gold…?

….what methods do you use ?…TA EW Fundmentals…

….where re you located ?

….We are a warry bunch here….and we have seen some shills come and go at tops and bottoms…

….a little pecliar how you just showed up now !

….certainly we welcome all sincere Gold Posters…

….Your Gold Bio would go a long way toward acceptance as a peer…

….Thanks….and..If your bottom call holds out….you may be an instant celebrity here …FGC

I number Weeks, as Week # 1 = 13 Nov 2000, Week 353 = 13 Aug 2007, this Week # 409 = 8 Sep 2008 .. ( Dates are Mondays )

409 - 353 + 1 = 57 Weeks Inclusive of Both Ends

409 - 353 = 56 Weeks Non-Inclusive of Both Ends

So, one wonders what the next 56 Week ( nominal ) Time Period will bring … [ 56 = 16 x 3.5 ]

Some sort of bottom appears DUE at this Time,  if I assume that there will occur a Bottom now, I wonder about ” How good a Bottom it might be .. ”

..

elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/2008/09/elaine-meinel-1.html

Hoarders.

Up last week also was the time limit set by President Roosevelt for hoarders to return to the Government all their gold holdings above $100 under pain of $10,000 fine and ten years imprisonment. Since March 6 nearly a billion dollars in gold had flowed back to the Treasury but some $700,000,000 was still in hiding. Some of this had fled abroad; some of it had been lost: much of it was in the hands of well-to-do citizens from whom direst threats of prosecution could not blast it loose. Their position had able supporters. Senator Glass did not think the Government had the legal authority to force a citizen to give up his lawfully acquired property.

Senator Borah had openly declared: “If I had $5,000 in gold I would defy the Government to come and get it.” One person who took Senator Borah’s advice last week was Colorado’s Charles S. Thomas, 83, onetime (1899-1901) Governor, onetime (1913-21) Senator. To the U. S. District Attorney at Denver, this fiery old Democrat wrote: “I am the owner and possessor of $120 in gold which I have acquired in order to qualify myself for the penitentiary. . . . Being entitled to its retention, I shall not surrender it to the authorities, preferring to use my few remaining years in testing the extent to which the executive power can go. … I am at your service.” In Washington, Attorney General Cummings, looking for a test case to prosecute, waved Hoarder Thomas’ challenge aside. Said “General” Cummings: “He’ll have to raise his ante. Twenty dollars is not much risk.”

There are obviously going to be traders who will play this bounce short term.  I would fully expect many to go short on the next rally.  Support becomes resistance on the way up.  Whether or not they can control it is up to the Gods.  To ignore this would be, well, ignorant.   Longer term investors, however, may be rewarded with some ups and downs along the way.  (Of course, everything could just go to hell in a handbasket and gold could BLAST to $1500!)

Maybe I can cancel that request for more tranquilizers.

This is why I no longer post here…..you need to be moderated!