Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

“I ask you all the question? Who has been and continue to be buying at these lows?”

I don’t know who has been buying at these lows or who do you think is?

 So Lehman will be bailed out without the help of public money. Yeah sure.

  B of A will buy them? or are the on the other side of Lehman’s credit default swaps and will they have Lehman shoved down their throats ala Countrywide? With the guarantee from the Fed that their bad paper can be swapped for treasuries?

  Nothing will stop this. The next investment bank to be hammered into oblivion is Merrill.

  The next 5 p.m. takeover of substance will be WaMu.

  The derivatives are what are blowing up right now and every bank has it’s tentacles in every other bank.

  As far as the dollar, I don’t think the election has anything to do with the current strength. This is all about keeping the foreigners and bondholders happy and buying UST’s

I think they are aiming to tip the black boxes so the dollar will run itself once they get it past the tipping point.
Until the elections? They’ll try but as some have noted, the dollar market is too big for them to manipulate for 130 days or so, unless the paper elite can get the black boxes to run.

Well, for me at least but, perhaps for many of you this may be trite or less then meaningful.

Anyway, Colorado Gold says no more 1000 ounce silver bars. This is an Industrial supply item. No question, in my mind, that what we have been seeing and for some months now is Retail Silver RATIONING. A myriad of cover stories and excuses have been put forth  but, the fact is that Silver is being Rationed at the retail level… to protect industrial supply. Some short time ago, I posted that if 1000 ounce bars become scarce then all hell may break out.

Retail Silver gets rationed first: then, non essential Industrial supply then, essential Industrial and lastly the procurer of last resort…the Military.

1000 ounce bars should be plentiful but, now we are seeing the beginning of rationing here too.

The major silver shorts have heavily sqeezed this market and regardless of whether they have now covered enough, they have  to let the silver price rise or all hell breaks out.

I do not see that as a head and shoulders. But I will look again at coffee tomorrow. Even if a head and shoulders, the amount of down cannot be predicted and we had a fair amount.

So yes seriously I don’t see anything more that it means.

aurum US Dollar

bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/07/enron_timeline.html

Look at the violent backtest up to the neckline before Enron began its final plunge. Place the bets. It is an easy trade. Cover $ shorts above 82.

That’s the problem of relying on charts without looking at what’s going on in the world around you……The only way dollar strength can be maintained is by what has been happening…..total bullshit manipulation and deception. How long can it last??? Not for extended period of time would be my guess.

All the best.—–aggie.

You are then talking about 95 - 05?

The two shoulders should appear at about the same price level. They should appear after a (sustained) run up. In other words at the end of a long uptrend. There should be symmetry. Volume should be highest on the left shoulder. The right shoulder should have the lowest volume.

I do not see that as a head and shoulders. Even if so the decline only lasts 3 - 6 months. The amount of the decline cannot be predicted. There is also a relatively high failure rate.

Bulkowski has detailed statistics.

aurum US Dollar

..in 2000 it was 80 …right.?…you assesd it and it was 80….O k….i’ll buy that

in 2008..its Higher than in 2000 ?

with alll the bank failures..with the Current account and budget deficits gone parabolic….with M3 gone stratospheric…..with the Biggest govt bailout in history by a factor of well who knows ?…..with more BIG failures looming…with alll the manufacturing jobs lost to India China et al….and you figure its fundamentally worth MORE Now ?

an abc corection ?….from a high 25 years ago ?….Look at the 80 mark…it was tested 3 times before it bounced to 120…then one time after…wich formed a right shoulder…a parallel shoulder….a super Head and Shoulder…..what about the concept Support becomes Resistance…? ?

…what about the highest RSI reading ever right now ..?…could that be a too far too fast indicator ?

T Q……?…what the ?

I posted this chart 4 times in the last 24 hours

Grin has a similar one in his list

there’s none so blind that will not see

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&st=1990-01-01&en=1979-01-01&id=p88702858943

I can agree that the dollar run can continue until the elections….but that is doubtful IMO…Because….any commodity, the dollar included, cannot be held up for long under fundamentally horrible conditions for the commodity in question. Would you not agree that the fundamentals are less than horrible for the dollar at this time?  IMO opinion, there are no reasons whatsoever for the dollar to have strength at this time….That is the reason I call the operation in dollar as of late….total bullshit….for lack of a better description. Do you think that if a report came out calling for a doubling in acres planted to wheat….that it’s price would go up?? This reasoning is what is being asked of us to be believe concerning the dollar. With massive….all time record dollar creation…..there seems no reason for the dollar to show strength for any length of time. In conclusion….this little round of dollar strength is an abberation at best..

All the best—–aggie.

I looked at a lt chart of the USD.  Here is alink

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&st=1981-01-01&en=1979-01-01&id=p67623503102

What I thought when I looked at it was this: it is not a H&S Top; it is an abc correction from the 1985 high.   This is what I thought.  Can I prove it?  Not tonight.  What I can write is:

-that when in July 2000 I wrote the article about the USD I made it very clear then that,

-when compared to the British pound,the French franc,the German mark,the Canadian and Australian dollar, and also when compared to gold,

- in 2000, when the USD was at about 115,  it was roughly 30% overvalued.

We then waw it go to about 121.  Now let’s do the math.

Whether at 115 or at 121, a 30% reduction brings the dollar to roughly 80.

Yes it went lower.  Sometimes momentum or something takes a price lower than its price objective. Now it is near 80.  My hunch is that it will buzz around 80 for a while.  It has broken above  the restance downtrend line from the 2002 high.  So it is now free of that.  It is now near what was then considered to be fair value.  Let us set aside the debate about what is fair value now, until more time is available.

Which textbook pattern?

Give me a link to the chart. My US Dollar chart shows the 06 head and shoulders and none since.

aurum US Dollar

b e a u t i f u l “philosophy” …

just like your photos, and I have noticed how the visual natural world almost opens up to you for the most facinating compositions and subjects.

….if you want to get physical…just call this number

911-FER-RETT

….he says its easy and plentiful….and useless too considering cash is king