Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

I have often found Hope in a picture of an Eagle flying high. When there was no Hope.
Many the time a picture of a train pulled me along for the ride, when I was too weary to press on.
Onward Pilgrams, has become more than a phrase, but a way of Life.
And Peace? I found Peace in the strangest of all places. Peace is a state of mind, resides in the mind, and for me, is represented perhaps best, by an ole iron seat, and thoughts of a friend not yet met.

Best Always, Farmboy

i’ve ridden a few. looking at 2 and 5 year notes. good rpw’s down and a chance to cheat on the entry with a close stop. i don’t think folks are going to buy bonds that pay no interest and the fed is going to have to raise rates soon. i think they have given up on saving the housing market. when you going to take a trip south? i told irish i think we need to get 10 or so folks and purchase a 40′ sailboat. just think; no airport hassles, no $35. exit fee, and no baggage restrictions. i took my son to visit irish and he loved the place. got to pan for gold, met with the economic minister, ogled all the women on caye caulker, and various and sundry other things. said the only thing to make it better is if i stayed home.

rno

Hi Bill
I’ve been getting a lot of calls and I would describe them all as voices of complete fear and panic.

The scariest thing to me is that most still do not understand what is about to happen!

For those still confused please read my “Road to Roota” articles in the Cafe archives.

Here is the advise I gave last year…so I was a little early!

1) Bullion will be king. The more… the better. Keep it out of the banking system.
2) Gold may rise above $60,000/oz at the first shot…overnight.
3) Silver may rise much higher and faster due to its industrial and monetary components
4) Banks will print money to buy gold
5) Sellers will disappear at any price
6) Comex, LME, GLD, SLV etc will all default and the metal inventories will stay in the countries they currently reside.
7) Expect to lose everything held by a bank.
Expect EVERY country to nationalize their gold and silver mines….NO EXCEPTIONS!
9) Hang onto your house and your mortgage (don’t pay it off until after the collapse)
10) Stay close to home over the next few months.
11) Have a plan if there is a system melt down (ask your friends and family to have a plan also)
12) Have enough cash (new bills only) to last a few months
13) Have enough food and water to last a few months
14) Although I hate this one….get a gun to protect your family in case of civil unrest.
Hopefully, we will get through this without serious armed conflict but I’d be very scared if I worked as a bank teller!

All the best to the GATA army.
Bix

  Gotta figure we’ll have some fits and starts. I doubt this will be as easy as we’d like it to be. Thought the Asian markets might jump on the chance to squeeze some more blood from the shorts but….maybe tommorrow.

   Wonder if the Japanese got some marching orders?

time living in Canada, so close to the socialist giant to the south of Canada, is that we would be swept up in a continental malaise of taxpayers having to pay for failing corporations.  I was therefore very interested in reading your posting at 20:42 this evening, and my immediate reaction was to post to congratulate you on the article.  Then I noticed that the article I had just read was by Peter Schiff, not by JBI.  Doesnt matter to me who wrote it, you or Schiff, the message made good sense to me.  Thanks for posting it.  Equiz. 

heh heh heh

RNO      I hope you got to take a ride on some of those RPWs.

Some Tenters are hailing the new regulations against naked short sellers.  I think that may be misplaced.  To be sure, we have almost certainly been victimized in our PM investments by the naked short sellers, but it seems to me that this new rule change is not designed to protect us, but the very entities who have used the technique against us.   The GSasses of the world are now vulnerable to this very technique, and it appears that some of the hedgies are like what I have heard about reptiles, they have no concept of gratitude, and will happily eat the hand which feeds them.    This no naked shorting rule change will prevent our tomentors from experiencing what we have had to put up with for so long.  Am I way off base?

Personally, have seen the same attitude. Have friends, ex-co workers who even until yesterday saw GOLD as nothing more than a ‘non-interest’ non divident paying investment and why should anyone want such?

The ‘T’ above is purposeful.

Explained this on GOLDIES yesterday. Told my non GOLD & Non PM friend what he’d probably lost, and what his stock probably did since we last tried to get him into a bit around $320.

UH huh…….doesn’t pay dividents, nor interest.
At least it doesn’t to those of us who cannot LEASE Gold we don’t own.

Anyway, permit me to c/p your slip seat post. I know the feeling.

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Congrats on your important 60 milestone. Goldtent wouldnt let me repost the picture of the tractor seats that you have seen before, but when I saw those cast iron seats today I was reminded of what we’ve been through in our meighborhood over the past 6-7 years. In 2002 and 2003, the FRANs around us (F,R,A,N = friends, relations, acquaintences, and neighbors) with their jeans, overalls, and Carhartts slid in and out of our conversation seats so much that the cast iron was brought to a lovely shiny polished sheen. At that time I was telling the FRANs about all the exciting things I was reading on Gold Forum. I never got any inkling that any FRAN ever bought any physical silver or gold or PM shares when I chatted to them on these seats.

But then I noticed in spring 2006 that the FRANS stopped coming over to listen to all the exciting things I had been telling them about gold and silver. The cast iron seats started to get rusty, with no more denim sliding in and out. I figured when they stopped coming over to chat, after spring 2006, that they must have started to read Gold Forum and maybe even the later TA charts on Goldtent. The seats got pretty rusty.

I have never met a FRAN who ever bought any physical silver or gold or any PM stock, but something seemed to be stirring in the last couple of days. Several FRANs have now dropped in and asked what’s happening with the price of silver and gold? And you know what ? That rust on the old conversation seats rubs off pretty quickly when you get some denim traffic on it.

It would be nice to sit with you a bit on some seats that are starting to get some shine on them again. Cheers. Equiz.

Is Macmin doing anything positive today?

…I have been following your Elliott wave Count with interest !

I have been learning from you…you seem to have a passion for it…

…it is starting to fascinate me…

I have seen your count on HUI and a few others..and was almost convinced we are in BIG wave 2…and only the a of an a b c correction….

…if I read you right the b (or suckers rally) would start about here and then another down wave c…to the lows again or below….would complete wave 2…….and since BIG wave 1 lasted 7 years…we would need 18 to 24 months of a wave 2 ….so we only have 6 months done so far and will have to wait till next fall or winter to start the Real Fireworks …

Now my question…does it fall within orthodox Elliott Wave theory that the b wave up should start so vioently…as it did today ?..or was that entirel someotheranimal ?

..is it possible BIG wave 1 actually ended in may 06 at 400….and since then we have been in wave 2..?….with the run to 520 a large b wave and this run down to 260 the final c ..thats over 2 years of Correction…hope you get my drift …

..If the above is plausable…maybe we actually just started wave 3 ?

……tia…FGC your neophyte EW Student….without a clue !

and everyone is yawning. I guess that is what happens when it goes up about 120 in a day.

By Claudia Carpenter
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVL5dFLFQ52s
Venezuela’s central bank may buy 15 metric tons of gold a year to develop gold investment products including coins, said Eli Sanchez, head of the gold department at Venezuela’s central bank.

“Part of our function is to increase participation in the gold market,” Sanchez said in an interview in London today. “The point is, in Venezuela you don’t have the opportunity to invest in gold at this moment.” …

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Russian Markets Halted as Emergency Funding Fails to Halt Rout By Alex Nicholson and William Mauldin Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Russian markets stopped trading for a second day after emergency funding measures by the government failed to halt the biggest stock rout since the country’s debt default and currency devaluation a decade ago. The ruble-denominated Micex Stock Exchange suspended trading indefinitely at 12:10 p.m. after its index erased a 7.6 percent gain and plunged as much as 10 percent within an hour. The benchmark fell 17 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started tracking the gauge in May 2001. The dollar- denominated RTS halted trading after similar declines. The government yesterday injected $20 billion into the interbank lending market via central bank and Finance Ministry auctions in a bid to contain soaring borrowing rates as credit dried up in the wake of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy. The one-day MosPrime overnight rate, a gauge for monitoring liquidity demand, leapt 25 basis points to a record 11.08 percent today. The Finance Ministry attempted to stop the selloff by offering 1.13 trillion rubles ($44 billion) of budget funds to the country’s three biggest banks, OAO Sber bank, VTB Group and OAO Gazprombank, for at least three months. That measure came as KIT Finance, a Russian brokerage, said it’s in talks to find a buyer after failing to meet some financial obligations related to repurchase agreements. Bond Market `Closed’ “The bond market remains effectively closed and banks are reluctant to lend to one another,’ said Julian Rimmer, head of sales trading at UralSib Financial Corp. in London. “The problems experienced by KIT Finance have heightened counterparty risk and reduced liquidity further.’…

-END-

Bill H:

To all; well, what is there to say? Finally a day where the manipulators got killed? It has been long proferred by GATA, Turk, Citigroup, Credit Agricole, Sinclair, Embry, Veneroso, etc. etc. that the metals markets were rigged, manipulated and generally suppressed for YEARS. Today the submerged beachballs called Gold and Silver have slipped [ever so slightly] out of the hands of the manipulators. For years JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have had their names raised by those claiming manipulation. As of last Friday, Goldman was considered one of the “saviours”. They were always talked about as a potential white knight that could swoop in and save those that were failing. Today they became the HUNTED! Speculators started their attacks in earnest yesterday, today Goldman’s blood has infested the waters and the sharks are circling. This event [along with general fear] helps explain the precious metal moonshots today.

Let me explain, the market place is attacking Goldman and fear in the CDS markets are suggesting a possible failure. The market clearly believes Goldman is in big trouble, if in fact we have been correct about Goldman’s involvement in suppressing the metals then it certainly follows that trading against Goldman’s positions is a smart trade. Obviously there is more to Gold’s move than just trading against Goldman, but since they have had their greedy hands on the “beachball”, it makes sense that maybe, just maybe the the manipulative shackles are breaking. Obviously fear that the entire system is coming down is behind the metals’ moves, but the moonshots had to start somewhere and have a fuse to light. Goldman is the fuse! Even if Goldman is not short metal, they are perceived as dying suppressors.

So far this witch hunt on Wall Street has left few unscathed. JP Morgan stands out like a tuxedo in a Texas beer joint. JP Morgan has been relatively “unscathed” with both their earnings and stock price. Why should this be? They are the 1000 pound gorilla in the room. They have more derivatives, more leverage, more assets and certainly more liabilities than any other player. How is it possible that they are so smart and nimble to have avoided this trainwreck? I don’t think they have. If you go back nearly 2 years you will recall that Pres. Bush signed a presidential directive that said [paraphrase] if you take losses resulting from matters of national security, YOU DON’T HAVE TO REPORT THEM! I think JPM has followed this law to the letter. I also think JP Morgan will be the last big game target. Once Goldman and Morgan Stanley succumb to mother nature’s warriors, JPM will sing solo on the stage of mea culpas. JP Morgan surely has had their $100 Trillion derivative book riddled with holes, they surely have counterparty risk, they surely ARE counterparty risk.

If JPM were to fall on the Fed, Uncle Ben Bernanke and even the Treasury for that matter will look like a Lincoln penny left for a freight train to squash. JPM is the pinnacle, they are the biggest of big, they will kill everything financial when they go down.

Very soon the public will understand they got screwed royally. They have worked and saved in the Dollar system their entire lives only to be told “we’re sorry but the system didn’t work out the way we planned, so go back to work and start from scratch”. The public is going to be PISSED!!! They will want jail time for anyone and everyone involved in banking and finance. They will want blood, [and Gold]. Regards, Bill H

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