It is obviously just my opinion but I do not believe that the pm sector will move higher until this “bailout” issue is resolved.  You can be sure that at some point in the very near future they will approve a bill but the question is regarding the details.  Any bailout though, once fully understood, will be IMO looked upon as dollar negative and commodity markets positive - until then, they will do whatever they can … either through direct market manipulation or fear, or a combination thereof, to hold the commodity sectors in check.  Once the fiat is approved and delivered to pay off the blackmail ransom it is then that I anticipate a bottom and reversal to the upside - not because they will have lost control over the markets but actually just the opposite … at that point their shorts will be covered, they will have acquired as much as possible all the current physical that is available, and they will have taken rather large long positions in the mining stocks at these depressed levels.

They, as by now you and others must understand, control the game … and as such they will at the most opportune time (at a time when most least expect) to which they can garner the greatest advantage and profitability will turn the directional trend on a dime.  Unfortunately, most pm investors who have bought into the deflationary economic scenario will be chasing prices higher as the money supply and credit is expanded to a degree not yet seen.

It takes guts and experience to stand alone or with only a few and take a contrarian view … but history has proven time and again that if one is to be successful in the markets this is exactly what one needs to do.  That is why 95% of investors lose in the markets - they let their emotions get in the way of their decision process and a majority of investors follow the herd.  In reality what they should be doing is when nobody wants in because of fear and frustration, and there is blood in the streets, stand out in the crowd and buy … and when everyone wants in, again for the reason of fear and this time greed, step back out of the game and sell it to them.

From this point going forward there is going to be extreme volatility in all markets due to confusion and manipulation to the nth degree and one must be prepared and accept that fact.  The key will be the liquidity of your investments so that when the time is right the transaction can be done quickly.

JMO and take it however you wish but I’ve seen this over and over in the markets since I first became involved back during the last commodity bull market in the 70’s.  Get ready to take the pepcid because your about to be sitting at the final table and those who are there are very good at playing the game … and they are playing to win!