I too think we are still in primary 2 down. However, I am inclined to the idea that it is finishing probably in a month or so. Will see.

The thing is that I think that the HUI and Silver started their wave 2 down back in May 06 (HUI 400 and Silver 15). The spike to HUI 520 and Silver 21 were waves B (running corrections), and then we are in wave C down. As per fibonacci, if HUI gets to 220 it would be 50% ((400-35)*.5%)=182 so 400 -182 = 220 aprox. Will see.

I think it is good to follow the Gold:oil, silver:oil and Gold:SPX gaps, because they will get filled. Once they get filled hopefully we might be ready to launch, based on the fact that we might have started wave 2 in 400 HUI in may 06. Take a look at Silver monthly, and you will count 5 waves up till 15, the same time when HUI made 400. From then on, the correction of the silver and HUI wer identical. And you can see in Silver clearly, that the rise of August 07/march 08, was a 3 wave up corrective wave. Not an impilsive wave. Same with HUI. So that is what makes me think that this correction is finishing.

Take a look at Silver monthly chart and you will count 5 waves in May 06. Then look at the correction from then on in a weekly stockcharts chart, and you will notice that the rise from August 07 to March 08 was a B wave up from the correction that started in May 06.

Take a look at NEM, GFI, HMY, CDE, GSS, and others, that started correcting in HUI 400 May 06. Others such as ABX dont count because they lost their hedge, so they went up more, KGC because it is in brazil and that market rocked, etc. But the stocks have been correcting since May 06, ins spite of the fact that the HUI went to 520. The rise from 300 to 520 (aug 07/march 08) was a wave B up. Not an impulsive wave.