Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

My PM supplier has just told me that their clients have to wait ten weeks before they can receive their order.  The people in his office are working  flat out and he feels totlly exhausted. All he want to do is go home to bed and sleep.  He has never seen anything like it.  WOW!

Finally on the same page

Maybe I’e been reading too many LT Charts lately

Now completing wave C of ABC correction in copper.  i don’t really see 5 waves up…but that works for me.

HUI went from 480 to 234 in 12 weeks…

CDNX ?….a picture is worth 10000 words

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=D&st=1998-01-01&en=1979-01-01&id=p86128796312

Is that not a crash ?

..maybe the Gold Stocks are done their crash…early..and we await the SM Crash….during which the PMs just go flat before resuming up….Maybe !

goldtent.net/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/viktminskning.jpg

….Looks like it was a Rising Triangle about to break out….But Now just a Flag….Still not giving up on it yet…..still saving pennies…still may see Tlaga’s Overnite revolution…where Coins are the only real money…

….Maybe the wave 2 a b c is over….in Copper…and now we go up ?

….Copper Bull Peaked in May 06…..and has been Flagging….

….still may see more down….based on todays action….and the Fact that TEOTWAWKI is a possibility !

It’s Over

To all; it’s over. The European banking system is unraveling after a bank failure in Iceland of all places was the chain link that broke. The EU countries met today to form some sort of bailout plan for the banks and when all was said and done, it is now every country for themselves, no agreement was reached between Germany and the Latin countries. Russia’s market was down more than 40% over the last 2 days and closed down 1% today after P.M. Medvedev pledged another $36 Billion to the banking system. The British P.M. and the Chancellor of the Exchequer are meeting on a bailout for the British banks. British credit cards are being declined for use in Europe proper. The Fed is now paying interest on funds deposits to put a floor in on rates so they can literally pump unlimited $s into the system without pushing rates to 0. The Fed also announced that they will backstop the commercial paper market with liquidity. Libor rates went higher again today, and the Treasury announced yesterday that they can make direct investments in any corporation. The best of all is the margin call by JP Morgan to Lehman Bros. [bankrupt] and Merrill Lynch [now part of Bank America who went to market today for $10 Billion in new capital that was undersubscribed]. I wonder if they’ll be paid?

We are witnessing panic on the part of governments worldwide, they are fiddling while Rome burns. They might as well fiddle as there is no solution, the banking system missed the ditch and is going off the cliff. The news cycle is jamming up because more and more “solutions” are announced on a daily basis as the world turns and markets open [or try to]. The banking system worldwide is in a spiral stage that even if panic is stemmed, it will rear it’s ugly head again a day, 3, or 7 later. Panic is the absolute outcome here, this has gone too far, too wide, and the infection is too deep to be reversed. Nothing goes straight down, and this is no different, but we are witnessing the end of the banking system.

I don’t think there are any band aids left that can last more than 3-5 days at a time. Gold and Silver [and the shares] will catch a bid that has never been seen before. Couple this bid with virtually no supply and the results will be a move to the upside in an asset class as has never been seen nor imagined before. I spoke over the weekend with a liaison to several European banks and he advised me that a waiting period of at least 3-4 weeks for Gold delivery is now the norm. He has never seen anything like this in his thirty years. As the banking system unravels, whatever little physical supply that is left will disappear. The jig is up, either you are out of the paper system or you go down with it. There will be NO paper survivors, either you are a charter member of the next banking system or you will be leapfrogged and left behind.

The Price of Gold will be beyond the reach of the common man. This has got to be the plan, the only way to recapitalize the banks is to revalue Gold up 10 fold, 100 or even 1000 fold. This is no joke, currencies will devalue and approach zero in many many cases. This is not 1929, it is WORSE for several reasons. The biggest being our currencies are bad. Back then the world had a hard and real currency, Gold. The level of debt back then looks highly conservative when compared with today’s circus. The world went to sleep and woke up with more debt and more risk than all the previous asset bubbles combined. This IS the biggest financial BUST of all time, by multiples. This is it, it is over.

Bill Holter

Their will be a panic sell-off, maybe a 20% drop? and then a long grind to the bottom.  All paper will burn in that panic, but the PM shares will not grind down with the rest of the mkt after that.  In other words, buy the PMs after the big crash.  Looks like a lot of PM buyers thought we’d had that the other night.  My opinion only, folks.  Maybe they will go straight up from here, especially if gold puts on a few $100 bucks in the next week or so.

Friday could be interesting.  Apparently it is settlement day for Lehman’s CDS’s.

Just had a Financial Planner ask me if I’m buying stocks yet - he’s using me as an indicator!!  When I said “no way” he said “so what do you buy?”.  He didn’t like the answer.  He’s really stressed atm with all his clients of many years calling him continuously about the current situation.  I told him a year ago that the credit crisis hadn’t begun yet and that physical was the only safe bet for the foreseeable future.  Another really safe bet is that he hasn’t bought a milligram of the stuff, let alone suggested it to his clients.

www.deepcapture.com/naked-hunting-season-to-resume-tomorrow/

Commentary by Jonathan Weil

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — And you wonder why the markets are nervous.

At 2:51 p.m. yesterday, the Securities and Exchange Commission unleashed a bombshell news release. The headline: “SEC Charges Beverly Hills Firm and Principal for Illegal Short Selling.”

The big story? Here we are, in the worst financial crisis of almost everybody’s lifetimes, and this is what qualifies as news down at the SEC.

Not just a short seller. An illegal short seller. From BEVERLY HILLS! Message: “Yeah, baby! We got one!”

And who is this capo of 90210? The man upon whom we, the investing mob, should focus our anger, while Wall Street CEOs and SEC Chairman Christopher Cox get away?

According to the SEC, he is one Kenneth Rickel, principal of the renowned Lion Gate Capital Inc. And for all his efforts, this Rickel fellow allegedly made profits of $207,291.

That’s right: $207,291. According to the SEC, “Rickel made every trading decision and placed every one of the violative trades.” For that, he got his own press release from the SEC, distributed to almost every financial-news reporter on the planet, tainting him on Google for life.

Public Enemy No. 1, right here. After all, if the government can’t get someone who matters, it might as well as electronically string up someone who doesn’t. Who can tell the difference? When the government is bailing out the world’s banks for $700 billion, every penny helps, or so we’re supposed to believe.

Making a Commitment

“The commission is committed to curbing the abuse of short selling,” thundered Linda Thomsen, director of the SEC’s almost-total-lack-of-enforcement division. “Traders who attempt to hide their violations of the securities laws through sham transactions or other schemes will be held accountable.”

And there’s more. Here’s what Rosalind R. Tyson, director of the SEC’s Los Angeles office, had to say in the same press release: Rickel and his firm “engaged in serial violations of an important regulation designed to protect the integrity of the capital markets.” It’s enough to make you think he’s the Jeffrey Dahmer of Wall Street.

Just what kind of short seller is our man Rickel? Not a naked short seller, like the kind Cox normally vilifies. And while the SEC may have called his civil violations “illegal,” it didn’t accuse him of fraud.

According to the SEC’s complaint, Rickel covered short sales on 14 companies with shares he bought through their public stock offerings. If he’d covered his bets with stock he bought on the open market, he would’ve been OK under the rules. In a short sale, an investor sells borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back at a lower price and pocket the difference as profit. (Naked shorts sell shares without borrowing them first.)

Vague Rule

“I’m surprised, given all the important issues of the day the SEC needs to handle, that they would bring a case in federal court over $200,000, on their estimate, for a technical trading violation of a rule that the SEC did away with because they felt it was too vague,” Rickel’s New York lawyer, Christopher Clark, told me.

Now see if you recognize any of the company names that were the targets of Rickel’s trades: TC Pipelines LP, Minrad International Inc., IPC Holdings Ltd., Axsys Technologies Inc., Randgold Resources Inc., Fiberstars Inc., Pharmaxis Ltd., Lifetime Brands Inc., American Capital Strategies Ltd., Axesstel Inc., TGC Industries Inc., Brigham Exploration Co., Gasco Energy Inc. and Extra Storage Space Inc.

Meanwhile, as Bear Stearns Cos. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. were unraveling, Cox and the SEC slept.

If the people running the SEC aren’t going to resign, they should at least shut up. That way, we won’t know just how much time they waste each day formulating over-the-top quotes for press releases about small-fry cases instead of doing their jobs.

Whoops, there goes another 500 points off the Dow. That’s your vote of public confidence, right there.

What do you think of the copper action lately?  Does it look broken to you or new highs on the way in the next year or two?

07:48 Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser says that the ability of monetary policy to neutralize shocks is limited
Plosser also said that attempts to use policy to deal with shocks will not work. Plosser nevertheless voted for this morning’s Fed rate cut.
* * * * *

HUI SOARS 18.71% AS DOW FLOPS AGAIN

“I am genuinely proud that when I was chairman of the Association of Mining Analysts we held two gold seminars at which the much-reviled Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee spoke. What they said about the gold market and the shadowy world of derivatives has come home to roost, and with an accuracy that I cannot recall the like of in over 35 years as a stockbroker and mining analyst.” … Michael Coulson, chairman of the Association of Mining Analysts, October 7, 2008

GO GATA!

GATA has been doing its thing for nearly a decade now and that is certainly one of the nicest public compliments we have received from someone in the gold industry over that period of time. More about Michael Coulson, who published the following…

An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector, 2nd edition

An in-depth study of gold and mining shares
www.harriman-house.com/mining

Michael Coulson: Gold — safe haven or bull trap?

Keep an eye on this one: the big gold picture seen through the eyes of another maniac. 

Bottom side prediction doesn’t seem likely at this point.  One thing is certain: it’s going to be a splendid ride.

….How about fill a wheel barrel with 1000 Loonies…no not paper Loonies..Metal Loonies

….and then show them a Gold Maple….

….equal alue…..nuff said !

World currency..now thats scary.