Oldtent Archives 2007 - 2008

….One Fundamental says BULL………….Hyperinflation !

….which is what you get when the CBs and Treasuries of the WHOLE world….say they will give Unlimited funds to the Banking System………..what else could that mean?

……Unlimited Funds = Printing Money without Limits !

It’s hard to pick a bottom using an hourly chart. The monthly still looks weak, but a relief rally possibly back to the bo point on the bearish wedge is a real possibility.  I see it as a sign that the first major wave of unwinding/deleveraging is finished for at least a couple of months.  Fundamentals and supply will cap the recovery IMO.

>>>>>hourly chart shows Double bottom at 206 (Dec Futures)…on Friday

…….presently 245……

………almost 20% up in just over a days trading………….volitility ?

……..Inflation signal ?

I think the Nikkei’s near 19 year bear market is finished as of today.

…no way no how Jose thats possible !……..especially just before an election !

Noront is a Company we sometimes discuss here…

But your post comes out of the blue and is full of stuff I for one have no Idea about…..its way to complex for this Layman………………

….if you want to have any impact on this board…perhaps you could distill the info down to a basic paragraph or 2…..are you management of Noront ?

….I have Met Ian Campbell of Temex….are you saying Temex…a much smaller company than Noront capital wise is part of some Predatory action ?

tia….

…if you dont answer it would appear your post is just spam

Hi.. tried calling you ..outta minutes?

Just sent you an e-mail ..thoughts from Everett

singing:…  Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie, Drove My Chevy to the levy but, the levy was dry (Physical PM’s)

Those good old boy’s were drinking whiskey and rye…singing this will be the day that I died. (Comex)

This was written by another share holder ; Any opinions would be wellcome .

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Posted by: hoov on October 13, 2008 02:05PM

In response to: Hoov’s critique by Lance Swago

Aside: I sent it to Richard, and he thanked me.

What a coincidence! After months of recurrent attacks by bashers, and in the midst of the most recent one, the short-selling market manipulating monster finally reveals itself to us. And this circular is more of the same……lies, half-truths, rumours, and deception, intended to instill shareholder fear, and reduce confidence in management of Noront. It is far from being a sober, dispassionate analysis. I’ve read the Rosseau Circular through a number of times now, and I’d like to isolate and analyze the points used to criticize Noront management.

1. First, they allege that Noront has squandered opportunities since August 2007, when Eagle 1 took our SP to lofty heights (7.42), and thereafter imply that management is solely responsible for the current SP.

I should think, first off, that if those “squandered opportunities” exist, that they should be easily defined and described. And yet, no specific examples are presented. Not one. Instead, I can think of some fine “opportunities” that Noront has created in the meantime, called Eagle 2, Blackbirds 1 & 2, At-12. And, the resource at Eagle 1 has been defined by 43-101. I think that’s pretty good for one year’s progress.

Secondly, I can think of external forces at play which have influenced our SP. We’ve talked about them incessantly over many months. Things like something called a credit crisis, worldwide recession, market fear/capitulation, market manipulation (especially (naked) short selling……what these Rosseau boys do). I would be hard-pressed to find any cause that can attribute any of this to Noront management…..and Rosseau doesn’t even try.

2. (a) Noront *recently* wasted 15 million on Windfall.

<cough> Excuse me?

Where on Earth did that bloated figure come from? Given the time frame alluded to in the prior allegation (i.e. after August 2007), the idea of recent expenditures of anything more than a fraction of that amount is absurd. Noront raised 15 million in a private placement about two years ago, to fund the Windfall ramp and bulk sampling program. By not acknowledging this, Rosseau intentionally creates a false impression.

Windfall, and the commitment to drive a ramp towards the gold vein deposit, entirely precedes the ROF discoveries, and historic spending (that’s where 15 mil figure comes from) should not be confounded with current budgets. The decision to drive a ramp towards the gold was entirely prudent, given then current estimates that surface drilling to define the deposits would cost a similar amount, would not define grade with certainty (we’re talking vein gold, here), and would likely end up requiring a ramp anyway.

They further allege that funds raised earlier this year have been diverted from the ROF to Windfall, via “unduly promoting” the McFauld’s discoveries, and then diverting “substantial” funds to Windfall. That is an outright falsehood. Noront has been absolutely forthright about its cash budgets with respect to all its properties. Funds were fully raised and committed to Windfall prior to February 2008, when the PP for McFauld’s exploration was done. Furthermore, investments in Noront are not specific to any one property. To confound investor expectation with management practise is utterly absurd.

And who said the investment at Windfall was *wasted*????? I saw some very nice photographs of museum-quality gold ore coming out of that ramp. And from a location not previously known to host gold. It is, at a very minimum, premature to call the investment wasted. Rosseau elsewhere criticizes Noront for failing to proceed from an exploration company towards being a mining company, and yet they would negate and dismiss clear efforts to do so at Windfall? Talk about sophistry.

2. (b) ….and spent $1 mill on other properties, diverting cash, human resources and focus.

In all but a couple of cases, once again these properties have been in Noront’s portfolio for a long time. JV partners are operators at many of them, so they require little investment or oversight. Others have had so little attention paid to them that nothing whatsoever has been spent on them in recent times. In fact, recent MD & A reports have made clear that management is not diverting money and resources away from the ROF. Instead, look at how many new staff had been added! Since 2007, office staff has more than doubled, and expert management has been added a number of times. Whatever management these other properties demanded, those efforts are surely much *diluted* now, compared to previous years.

And just from a more exploration-based philosophical perspective, how is it that you can criticize a mineral exploration company for thoroughly investigating any opportunities which have come its way? What else is it that you would expect them to do? Walk away?

Noront management has clearly expressed its intention of separating the funding and management of the ROF from its other assets. All this would do, IMHO, is to make formal what is surely happening in practise already.

3. (a) Alleging that the 11 Ring of Fire JV projects are drains and distractions on administrative and operating resources.

Poppycock! Those are claims Noront chose for immediate mineral investigation. Of all the thousands of claim blocks under Noront’s control, they entered into agreements to push specific clusters of blocks forward, and obtained other people’s investments of resources to pay for it all. These are Noront’s choices of targets. (I’m certain they didn’t throw darts at a map!) They would have been chosen for drilling anyway. But someone else is paying for it. There is no change in administration, but there is a *reduction* in operational expenditure.

In addition, these agreements have contractural time-lines. They force directed investment (read drilling) in a timely way. If the drills don’t turn, or funding doesn’t come, the JV collapses, and no dilution of interest occurs. With Noront’s immense land holdings, getting those drills turning is the priority. When they say “take(ing) valuable manpower and scarce drills away from Noront’s 100%-owned high priority prospects”…..what is the allegation really suggesting? That somehow Rosseau already knows which properties to drill? That they know the rest of the ROF is not worth exploring? I see no evidence that Noront has misused its drills or manpower. Think Blackbird.

Elsewhere, Rosseau reveals their *real* concern about the JVs…..

3. (b) The re-structuring of ownership interests makes Noront a less attractive target for a major.

Now we’re looking at strategy. The quick flip, vs. long-term investment via e.g. buy-in, other JVs, or self-development.

It is my opinion, based on what Rosseau presents here, and from its historical investments, that what they want to do is break up Noront, and flip it as quickly as they can. In fact, I suspect Rosseau is acting as a proxy for a major. When they say they want to improve shareholder value, I believe they have only their own interests at heart. In and out as quickly as they can, so they can go on to short and raid some other victim.

In contrast, Noront has always taken the long view. From the moment the Eagle 1 resource was defined, they spoke of mining it and selling the ore. In fact, they had their hands slapped by the TSX for suggesting feasibility issues had been addressed according to OSC regulations. When chromite was hit, again, talk was immediately about the value of the ore on the market, not in situ. No talk about getting maybe 10% for in situ, but instead, full market value based on mining, concentrating, and shipping ore.

For this issue, it comes down to personal decisions, but since this is my analysis, I’m going to supply my opinion. IMHO, far greater value accrues to Noront from taking the long view, mining and shipping ore, or even from nothing more than NSRs, than from breaking up the company and flipping its still poorly defined assets. Noront is well on the way to turning blue sky into ore in the ground, and with each increment, the long term value increases. With a sell-out, no further increments are possible.

3. (c) squandering of “leadership position” via JVs, rather than accretion and consolidation.

Give me a break. Noront continues to stake land, both on its own, and as a part of a staking syndicate. Noront has expressly stated that it desires to control 80% of the ROF.

One does not accomplish such a task overnight. IMHO, the opportunities to take over weaker stakeholders are only just now presenting themselves. It’s no secret that funding for juniors is going to be a critical issue with respect to their viability. We’ll just have to see how things shake out.

But, more directly to the point raised, just how is new management going to accomplish this? Massive dilution of existing shareholder value? You can be sure these vultures would profit more from that than we would. Diversion of scarce resources from drilling? No, wait, that’s a criticism of existing management.

Bottom line is Rosseau is suggesting something Noront has already said they’d do. Again, it comes down to a fast flip vs. long-term accretion of value.

4. (a) replacing Richard.

I don’t know…..does he need replacing? He’s certainly attracted some amazing talent to the company. That’s a testament to the man. He’s got experts with respect to take-overs/mergers, TSX listings, finance, geology, and a host of top-notch consultants.

Rosseau doesn’t even suggest a man to replace him. They apparently have no faith in their ex-Aurelian president.

4. (b) listing on TSX

We’ve been talking about that for a long time. Noront cannot talk about it. It’s forbidden. Rosseau isn’t, and they’re taking advantage of that.

Lately, people have noted a subtle change in content from Noront about this issue. Whereas before they would say they’re not currently working on it, now they restrict themselves to “no comment”…..as required of them, if they are in fact proceeding with such a move.

It takes time, and we’ll know about it when it happens. IMHO, it’s already not far off. Rosseau offers nothing here, either.

4. (c) spin-off of non-core assets

Management has expressly stated a number of times that this will happen. We’ve also discussed how complicated it might be, with Windfall still not subject to formal resource estimates, and implications with respect to possible TSX listing. These two issues may be intertwined in regulatory red-tape.

Richard’s a lawyer, and he’s got people with direct experience in getting this done. It takes time, and he can’t talk about it until it’s all sorted out. Rosseau is again just blowing smoke. They’d be in the same position as existing management finds themselves. When Rosseau says they see no evidence of progress, that’s pure sophistry once again. These are all or nothing propositions. There can be no progress reports.

5. Exaggeration and undue promotion by Richard.

To support this, Rosseau provides only a second-hand anecdotal report from the Financial Post, that the geology was similar to Voisey’s Bay, and that “it could even be bigger”. Without any context, we cannot even know Richard’s true intent with the statement. Moreover, Noront’s grades are higher than Voisey’s, and the geology strongly suggests that there is more nickel out there. That it hasn’t yet been found doesn’t disprove the fact that Richard may be right…..it could be bigger.

I recall suggestions that Noront might have 15-30 million tonnes of chromite. Funny, now I’m hearing there might be 100 million, with deposits open on strike. Today, on the FWR hub, I hear 150 million.

Rumours always attach to exploration plays. If you want proven reserves, buy some Billiton. But don’t criticize a man for being excited about his exploration plays.

More smoke, IMHO.

Frankly, I haven’t been persuaded that any one argument they’ve raised has validity, let alone the lot of them. However, let’s move on to consider the nominees for board positions.

Let’s see, four of them come from Aurelian. Hmmmm, seems they’re out of work right now, after selling out their company for a 60% premium over a massively depressed SP. I guess I know what they’re good at.

Another guy is a director from Temex, which seems to be involved in a large number of JVs in the ROF. Some of them with Noront. Now that would be a change, wouldn’t it?

And a couple of others who are willing to resign if more qualified people can be found.

Honestly, not one of these nominees holds a candle to the men we’ve already got. They’re openly seeking a couple of better qualified directors. And they don’t have a president in mind, to give life to their “vision”. And this is somehow an improvement?

Bottom line, the choice seems to be between breaking up Noront and flipping the ROF claims, or taking the longer road to higher values. Rosseau claims to be willing to do things that existing management has already dedicated themselves to accomplishing, so what’s new there? Apart from these “commitments”, they offer nothing but platitudes.

What’s the damn rush? Rosseau is greedy. That’s my analysis.

Lar

www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=884476331

Tell Mr. Dony to shove his ideas where the sun don’t shine.
It is funny how the hampsters are coming out now in the letter writers division.

There were no surprises today as far as gold is concerned. It was SHOOT THE MESSENGER time once again. Fat Tony lives on and on. As veteran Café members know, the worse the US financial news is, the more the cabal forces sit on the price of gold to defuse this widely watched barometer of US financial market health.

From gold’s standpoint, what could be more bullish than the staggering amount of printed money being thrown at the markets in the western world? It doesn’t get more bullish than that, which is why Comrade Paulson ordered the price down Friday and today.

Gold was very firm overnight and into the early trading hours in London as the AM FIX came in at $865. Probably as not to look as obvious as they have been, the cabal traders waited until 6AM NY time to bomb gold … and they did quite the job on it, even though oil was rallying sharply and the dollar was under considerable pressure…

CHART

Almost every commodity and market reversed course from Friday’s dramatic convulsions, EXCEPT gold.

Adrian has it in perspective…

Bill,
Look at these headlines. Makes me want to sell all my bullion and PM shares because with this rescue the worst must be behind us and it is time to buy Fannie and Freddie shares (cough, cough)!

With the ridiculous Cartel attack on Friday investors were getting scared about owning precious metals. With headlines like this I would be terrified if I didn’t!

Cheers
Adrian

The margin for a Comex silver contract has been upped to $8100. The new margin for gold is $7425.

Regarding my special Sunday MIDAS commentary on taking delivery of gold and silver on the Comex and CBT: When I mentioned putting up double the normal margin, and not the full margin, it was for those who wanted some time to get more funds together to eventually pay the full price, say for the December contract. It was not to be viewed as taking a margined futures position to worry about what the price was doing every day.

Also regarding this arbitrage idea, you might like to know the following from Peter Spina of www.goldseek.com:

I launched www.seekbullion.com/ last week. We are auctioning of 125 x 100oz silver bars. They are going for as high as $1,676 a bar!! That is about 65% above the spot price!!!

2 TIER MARKET,
Peter

The way I see it….

*Other nations got themselves in their own messes, but the essence of the financial problems of the day emanated from the US.

*We are becoming whom we mocked for years … the socialists in Europe, the communists … even the harangued Venezuela.

*Most everyone still doesn’t get it. We are in this mess, not because we are becoming socialists today, it is because the US interrupted our free market process years ago by rigging the price of gold and continually propping up the US stock market after 9/11, thereby constantly interfering with the free market process. It is generally acknowledged by most Planet Wall Street pundits that too low interest rates in America, for too long, led to our myriad of problems of the day. Had the price of gold been left to trade freely, US interest rates would have been much higher, and lessened the seriousness of the problem we are facing today.

*GATA purposely used the words “catastrophe” and “disaster” in our full page color ad in the WSJ on January 31 of this year. NO ONE on Planet Wall Street would listen. They still won’t, even as The Orwellians continue on down the same rotten path by smothering the price of gold when it ought to be soaring.

*The PPT traders who goosed the US stock market on Friday, even on Thursday’s losses made their money back today, plus some.

*The bond market ought to be in the deepest of trouble. How can it not be for crying out loud? If the bond vigilantes are awake, and allowed to be effective, long term interest rates in the US should soar.

*The dollar has had its run. Hard to imagine how it can make significant headway with printing presses going all out.

*The US stock market, after its oversold, PPT gunned, relief rally, ought to get bashed again once US interest rates really begin to rise sharply. Not hearing much at all about the next barrier to a sustained market rise.

The widely followed Martin Hennecke has the right perspective in my book, tying much of the above together in his latest…

Paul Joseph Watson
[1] Prison Planet
Monday, October 13, 2008

Private investment advisor Martin Hennecke warned this morning that the endless printing of money to bail out collapsing banks would lead to hyperinflation and the Zimbabwe-style destruction of the dollar, euro and sterling.

Asked by CNBC how the three currencies could be destroyed, Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche, highlighted the collapse of Iceland’s banks.

“They have a lot of external debt in other currencies so they wouldn’t be able to print up more of their own currency - meaning hyperinflation to get out of their debt - but the UK, the U.S. and the rest of Europe could do it….this is the first step down the road to hyperinflation,” [2] said Hennecke.

Noting that there was a gold rush and panic buying taking place while gold dealers worldwide had to close their doors, Hennecke agreed that gold prices would explode as hyperinflation crept up, and said that relatively modest overall price rises in the precious metal were partly a result of deleveraging as well as, “manipulation as the central bankers and the politicians don’t want you to panic out of their debt and go into gold.”

Hennecke dismissed the new rescue plans announced over the weekend as merely new taxpayer funded money being printed up and thrown at the problem, which will lead to accelerated inflation.

Asked if he believed whether the Euro and the U.S. dollar could go the way of the Zimbabwean dollar, which has suffered annual inflation of over 200 million per cent over the last few years, Hennecke responded, “Actually it’s interesting to know that the world’s leading standard rating agency Standard and Poor has predicted that all the major western governments are heading towards default on their sovereign bonds - that was predicted way before the crisis even started and now with tax revenues drying up and much much more money needed for these bailouts and privatizations of the banks to prevent a bank run, clearly that is likely to be happening earlier (rather) than later.”

“Most investors are saying cash is the safest thing but it might just turn around with cash being one of the highest risk investments if this inflation accelerates,” Hennecke concluded.

Early last month, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the announcement of the $700 billion bailout package, [3] Hennecke warned that the U.S. and Europe were both heading for depression and that the U.S. would eventually be forced to announce national bankruptcy.

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